The ocean response to climate change guides both adaptation and mitigation efforts

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters - Tập 15 - Trang 100221 - 2022
John Abraham1, Lijing Cheng2,3, Michael E. Mann4, Kevin Trenberth5,6, Karina von Schuckmann7
1University of St. Thomas, School of Engineering, Minnesota, USA
2Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
3Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, China
4Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, Penn State, Pennsylvania, USA
5National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
6University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
7Mercator Ocean International, Toulouse, France

Tài liệu tham khảo

Abraham, 2013, A review of global ocean temperature observations: Implications for ocean heat content estimates and climate change, Rev. Geophys., 51, 450, 10.1002/rog.20022 Abraham, 2015, Extreme weather: Observations of precipitation changes in the USA, Proc. Inst. Civ. Eng. Forensic Eng., 168, 68 Abraham, 2017, Future climate projections allow engineering planning, Proc. Inst. Civ. Eng. Forensic Eng., 170, 54 Ahmed, 2018, Who takes responsibility for the climate refugees?, Int. J. Clim. Chang. Str., 10, 5, 10.1108/IJCCSM-10-2016-0149 Araos, 2016, Climate change adaptation planning in large cities: A systematic global assessment, Environ. Sci. Policy, 66, 375, 10.1016/j.envsci.2016.06.009 Barlow, 2003, Ground water in freshwater-saltwater environments of the Atlantic coast, Circular 1262, USGS Baills, 2020, Assessment of selected climate change adaptation measures for coast areas, Ocean Coast Manage., 185, 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2019.105059 Bene, 2015, Feeding 9 billion by 2050−Putting fish back on the menu, Food Secur., 7, 261 Blasiak, 2020, The ocean genome and future prospects for conservation and equity, Nature Sustainability, 3, 588, 10.1038/s41893-020-0522-9 Boyer, T. P., Baranova, O.K., Coleman, C., Garcia, H.E., Grodsky, A., Locarnini, R.A., Mishonov, A.V., et al., 2018. World Ocean Database 2018. A. V. Mishonov, Technical Editor, NOAA Atlas NESDIS. 87. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/2020-04/wod_intro_0.pdf. Brander, 2010, Impacts of climate change on fisheries, J. Mar. Syst., 79, 389, 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.12.015 Brzoska, 2016, Climate change, migration, and violent conflict: Vulnerabilities, pathways, and adaptation strategies, Migr. Dev., 5, 190, 10.1080/21632324.2015.1022973 Byrne, 2015, The response of precipitation minus evapotranspiration to climate warming: why the “wet-get-wetter, dry-get-drier” scaling does not hold over land, J. Clim., 28, 8078, 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0369.1 Cardona, 2020, Cost and benefit analysis of climate change adaptation strategies in coastal areas at risk, J. Coastal Res., 95, 764, 10.2112/SI95-149.1 Chen, 2018, Climate change and coastal megacities: Disaster risk assessment and responses in Shanghai city, 203 Cheng, 2017, Improved estimates of ocean heat content from 1960-2015, Sci. Adv., 4 Cheng, 2020, Improved estimates of changes in upper ocean salinity and the hydrological cycle, J. Clim., 33, 10357, 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0366.1 Cheng, 2021, Upper Ocean temperatures hit record high in 2020, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 38, 523, 10.1007/s00376-021-0447-x Cheng, 2022, Another record: Ocean warming continues through 2021 despite La Nina Conditions, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 39, 373, 10.1007/s00376-022-1461-3 Chowdhury, 2020, Climate change impacts and adaptation on health of internally displaced people (IDP): An exploratory study on coastal areas of Bangladesh, Heliyon, 6, e05018, 10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e05018 Clapp, 2018, The global political economy of climate change, agriculture, and food systems, J. Peasant Stud., 45, 80, 10.1080/03066150.2017.1381602 Clar, 2019, Climate change adaptation strategies at different levels of government, Nat. Resour. Forum, 43, 121, 10.1111/1477-8947.12168 Dasgupta, 2018, Climate change, salinization, and high-yield rice production in coastal Bangladesh, Econ. Rev., 47, 66 Diz, 2017, Marine policy special issue SDG synergies for sustainable fisheries and poverty alleviation, Mar. Policy, 110 Donat, 2019, Intensification of precipitation extremes in the world’s humid and water-limited regions, Environ. Res. Lett., 14, 10.1088/1748-9326/ab1c8e Emanuel, 2013, Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 110, 12219, 10.1073/pnas.1301293110 Feng, 2016, Global land moisture trends: drier in dry and wetter in wet over land, Sci. Rep., 5, 18018, 10.1038/srep18018 Foti, 2020, Coastal defence techniques and climate change: A review, Coastal Prot., 31, 123 Garcia-Soto, 2021, An overview of ocean climate change indicators: sea surface temperature, ocean heat content, ocean Ph, dissolved oxygen concentration, artic ice extent, thickness, and volume, Front. Mar. Sci., 8, 10.3389/fmars.2021.642372 Gargiulo, 2020, Coastal areas and climate change: A decision support tool for implementing adaptation measures, Land Use Pol., 91, 10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.104413 Garner, 2017, The impact of climate change on New York city's coastal flood hazard: increasing flood heights from the pre-industrial to 2300 CE, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 114, 11861, 10.1073/pnas.1703568114 Ghaderi, 2020, Estimation of actual evapotranspiration using remote sensing method and SEBAL algorithm: A case study in Ein Khosh Plain, Iran, Hydrology, 7, 36, 10.3390/hydrology7020036 GCOS (Global Climate Observing System), 2016. The global observing system for climate, implementation needs. No. 200. https://public.wmo.int/en/programmes/global-climate-observing-system. Golledge, 2015, The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future sea-level rise, Nature, 526, 421, 10.1038/nature15706 Guimond, 2020, Effects of marsh migration on flooding, saltwater intrusion, and crop yield in coastal agricultural land subject to storm surge inundation, Water Resour. Res., 57 Harrod, 2015, Climate change and freshwater fisheries, 641 Hu, 2018, Dry gets drier, wet gets wetter: A case study over the arid regions of central Asia, Int. J. Climatol., 39, 1072, 10.1002/joc.5863 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2014, Summary for policymakers, 1 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2019. Summary for Policymakers. In: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D.C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E., Mintenbeck, K., et al. (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, USA, pp.3-35. doi:10.1017/9781009157964.001. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2021. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S.L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., et al. (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA, In press. doi:10.1017/9781009157896. Kantamaneni, 2020, Assessing the vulnerability of agricultural systems to climate change in coastal areas: A novel index, Sustainability, 12, 4471, 10.3390/su12114771 Kharin, 2013, Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble, Clim. Chang., 19, 345, 10.1007/s10584-013-0705-8 Klassen, 2017, Assessing the risk of saltwater intrusion in coastal aquifers, J. Hydrol., 551, 730, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.02.044 Kruhoeffer, 2022, A “climate index” sets better expectations for future extreme weather events Legler, 2015, The current status of the real-time in situ Global Ocean Observing System for operational oceanography, J. Oper. Oceanogr., 8, s189 Liu, 2021, Enhanced hydrological cycle increases ocean heat uptake and moderates transient climate change, Nat. Clim. Chang., 11, 848, 10.1038/s41558-021-01152-0 Marx, 2021, Heat waves: A hot topic in climate change research, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 146, 781, 10.1007/s00704-021-03758-y McMichael, 2020, A review of estimating population exposure to sea-level rise and the relevance for migration, Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 10.1088/1748-9326/abb398 Meyssignac, 2019, Measuring global ocean heat content to estimate the earth energy imbalance, Front. Mar. Sci., 6, 198, 10.3389/fmars.2019.00432 Myrhe, 2019, Frequency of extreme precipitation increases extensively, Sci. Rep., 9 NCA (National Climate Assessment), 2018 Nicholes, 2010, Sea-level rise and its impact on coastal zones, Science, 328, 1517, 10.1126/science.1185782 Oloruntoba, 2018, Humanitarian logistics research for the care of refugees and internally displaced persons: A new area of research and a research agenda, J. Humanitarian Logist. Supply Chain Manage., 8, 282, 10.1108/JHLSCM-02-2018-0015 Rao, 2021, 487 Ryabinin, 2019, The UN decade of ocean science for sustainable development, Front. Mar. Sci., 6, 470, 10.3389/fmars.2019.00470 Savo, 2017, Impacts of climate change for coastal fishers and implications for fisheries, Fish Fish., 18, 877, 10.1111/faf.12212 Scambos, 2015, Briefing: Antarctic ice sheet mass loss and future sea-level rise, Forensic Engineering, Proc. Inst. Civ. Eng., 168, 68 Serpetti, 2017, Impact of ocean warming on sustainable fisheries management informs the ecosystem approach to fisheries, Sci. Rep., 7, 13438, 10.1038/s41598-017-13220-7 Sherif, 1999, Effect of climate change on sea water intrusion in coastal aquifers, Hydrol. Processes, 13, 1277, 10.1002/(SICI)1099-1085(19990615)13:8<1277::AID-HYP765>3.0.CO;2-W Solecki, 2011, Climate change adaptation strategies and disaster reduction in cities connections, contentions, and synergies, Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustainability, 3, 135, 10.1016/j.cosust.2011.03.001 Stone, 2010, Urban form and extreme heat events: are sprawling cities more vulnerable to climate change than compact ones?, Environ. Health Perspect., 118, 1425, 10.1289/ehp.0901879 Studholme, 2022, Poleward expansion of tropical cyclone latitudes in warming climates, Nat. Geosci., 15, 14, 10.1038/s41561-021-00859-1 Toimil, 2020, Addressing the challenges of climate change risks and adaptation in coast areas: A review, Coastal Eng., 156, 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2019.103611 Tosi, 2022, Sensitivity, hazards, and vulnerability of farmlands to saltwater intrusion in low-lying coastal areas of Venice, Italy, Water, 14, 64, 10.3390/w14010064 Trenberth, 2011, Changes in precipitation with climate change, Clim. Res., 47, 123, 10.3354/cr00953 Trenberth, 2022, The changing flow of energy through the climate system, 319 Trenberth, 2018, Hurricane Harvey links to ocean heat content and climate change adaptation, Earth’s Future, 6, 730, 10.1029/2018EF000825 Venkatramanan, 2020, Global climate change: Resilient and smart agriculture. Springer, Singapore, pp.1-358 von Schuckmann, 2020, Ocean science, data, and services for the UN 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, Mar. Policy, 121, 10.1016/j.marpol.2020.104154 Wahl, 2017, Sea-level rise and storm surges, relationship status: complicated!, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 10.1088/1748-9326/aa8eba Westra, 2013, Global increasing trends in annual maximum daily precipitation, J. Clim., 26, 3904, 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00502.1 White, 2017, Restore or retreat? Saltwater intrusion and water management in coastal wetlands, Ecosyst. Health Sustainability, 3, e01258, 10.1002/ehs2.1258 2017, Weather ready, Climate smart - Supporting the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, WMO Bulletin, 66, 1 Yang, 2016, Recent increase in Arctic freshwater flux affects Labrador Sea convection and overturning circulation, Nature Commun., 7, 10525, 10.1038/ncomms10525