The migration challenge for PAYG

Journal of Population Economics - Tập 27 - Trang 1023-1038 - 2014
Gurgen Aslanyan1
1CERGE-EI (a joint workplace of Charles University and the Economics Institute of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic), Prague, Czech Republic

Tóm tắt

Immigration has been popularised in the economics literature as a tool that could be used to balance troubled PAYG pension systems. Pivotal research by Razin and Sadka shows that unskilled immigration can overcome the pension problem and, further, boost the general welfare in the host economy. However, a large strand of current economics research is engaged in identifying mechanisms through which unskilled immigration, while solving the pension problem, is causing undesired shifts in general welfare. This work shows that recurring unskilled immigration will not only reduce the general welfare but may also be challenging the pension system by reducing the pension benefits themselves. Further interpreting the actual data, it is suggested that immigration policies are designed either based on public finances only or in a political environment of gerontocracy.

Tài liệu tham khảo

Algan Y, Dustmann C, Glitz A, Manning A (2010) The economic situation of first and second-generation immigrants in France, Germany and the United Kingdom. Econ J 120:F4–F30 Blake D, Mayhew L (2006) On the sustainability of the UK state pension system in the light of population ageing and declining fertility. Econ J 116:F286–F305 Casarico A, Devillanova C (2003) Social security and migration with endogenous skill upgrading. J Public Econ 87:773–797 Chojnicki X, Docquier F, Ragot L (2011) Should the US have locked heaven’s door? Reassessing the benefits of postwar immigration. J Popul E 24:317–359 Cigno A (2010) How to avoid a pension crisis: a question of intelligent system design. CESifo Econ Stud 56:21–37 Cigno A (2006) A constitutional theory of the family. J Popul Econ 19:259–283 Cipriani GP (2014) Population aging and PAYG pensions in the OLG model. J Popul Econ 27:251–256 Cremer H, Gahvari F, Pestieau P (2011) Fertility, human capital accumulation, and the pension system. J Pub Econ 95:1272–1279 Cremer H, Pestieau P (1998) Social insurance, majority voting and labor mobility. J Pub Econ 68:397–420 Eichhorst W, Gerard M, Kendzia M J, Mayrhuber C, Ruestler G, Url T (2011) Pension systems in the EU—contingent liabilities and assets in the public and private sector. IZA Research Rept No42 Fanti L, Gori L (2013) Fertility-related pensions and cyclical instability. J Popul E 26:1209–1232 Fanti L, Gori L (2012) Fertility and PAYG pensions in the overlapping generations model. J Popul Econ 25:955–961 Fanti L, Gori L (2010) Increasing PAYG pension benefits and reducing contribution rates. Econ Lett 107:81–84 Hainmueller J, Hiscox M J (2010) Attitudes toward highly skilled and low-skilled immigration: evidence from a survey experiment. Am Polit Sci Rev 104:61–84 Jinno M (2011) Assimilation, immigration, and the welfare state. FinanzArchiv 67:46–63 Kemnitz A (2008) Can immigrant employment alleviate the demographic burden? The role of union centralization. Econ Lett 99:123–126 Kemnitz A (2003) Immigration, unemployment and pensions. Scand J Econ 105:31–47 Krieger T, Traub S (2013) The Bismarckian factor: a measure of intra-generational redistribution in international pension systems. CESifo DICE Report 1(2013) Krieger T (2004) Fertility rates and skill distribution in Razin and Sadka’s migration-pension model: a note. J Popul Econ 17:177–182 Lacomba J A, Lagos F (2010) Immigration and pension benefits in the host country. Econ 77:283–295 Lee R, Miller T (2000) Immigration, social security, and broader fiscal impacts. Am Econ Rev 90:350–354 Muysken J, Cörvers F, Ziesemer T (2011) Immigration can alleviate the ageing problem. Netspar Discuss Pap DP07/2011-058 Okkerse L (2008) How to measure labour market effects of immigration: a review. J Econ Surv 22:1–30 Razin A, Sadka E (2000) Unskilled migration: a burden or a boon for the welfare state? Scand J Econ 102:463–479 Razin A, Sadka E (1999) Migration and pension with international capital mobility. J Public Econ 74:141–150 Razin A, Sadka E, Suwankiri B (2011) Migration and the welfare state, MIT Press, Cambridge Schou P (2006) Immigration, integration and fiscal sustainability. J Popul Econ 19:671–689 Serrano F, Ferreiro J (2011) Public pensions’ sustainability and population ageing: is immigration the solution? Int Labour Rev 150:63–79 Song Z, Storesletten K, Zilibotti F (2012) Rotten parents and disciplined children: a politico-economic theory of public expenditure and debt. Econom 80:2785–2803 Storesletten K (2000) Sustaining fiscal policy through immigration. J Polit Econ 108:300–323 Übelmesser S (2004) Unfunded pension system: ageing and migration. Elsevier, Amsterdam