The long time scales of the climate–economy feedback and the climatic cost of growth
Tóm tắt
This paper is based on the perception that the inertia of climate and socio-economic systems are key parameters in the climate change issue. In a first part, it develops and implements a new approach based on a simple integrated model with a particular focus on an innovative transient impact and adaptation modeling. In a second part, a climate–economy feedback is defined and characterized. The following results were found. 1) It has a long characteristic time, which lies between 50 and 100 years depending on the hypotheses; this time scale is long when compared to the system's other time scales, and the feedback cannot act as a natural damping process of climate change. 2) Mitigation has to be anticipated since the feedback of an emission reduction on the economy can be significant only after a 20-year delay and is really efficient only after at least 50 years. 3) Even discounted, production changes due to an action on emissions are significant over more than one century. 4) The methodology of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which neglects the feedback from impacts to emissions, is acceptable up to 2100, whatever is the level of impacts. This analysis allows also to define a climatic cost of growth as the additional climate change damages due to the additional emissions linked to economic growth.
Tài liệu tham khảo
W. Nordhaus, To slow or not to slow: The economics of the Greenhouse Effect, Econ. J. 101 (1991) 920–937.
W. Cline, The Economics of Global Warming (Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC, 1992).
R. Mendelsohn and J. Neumann, The Impact of Climate Change on the United States Economy (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1999).
S. Fankhauser and R. Tol, On climate change and economic growth, Resour. Energy Econ. 27 (2005) 1–17.
R. Tol, New estimates of the damage costs of climate change: part II. Dynamic estimates, Environ. Resour. Econ. 21(2) (2002) 135–160.
J. Green, Division of radiative streams into internal transfer and cooling to space, Q. J. Royal Meteorol. Soc. 93 (1967) 371–372.
M. Cherkaoui, J. Dufresne, R. Fournier, J. Grandpeix and A. Lahellec, Monte-Carlo simulation of radiation in gases with a narrow-band model and a net-exchange formulation, J. Heat Transfer. 118 (1996) 401–407.
S. Hallegatte, A. Lahellec and J.-Y. Grandpeix, The characterization of the water feedback in climate change with the use of a 0D model. J. Atmos. Sci. 2005 (submitted).
IPCC, in: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, eds. J.T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. Van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell and C.A. Johnson (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2001).
R. Solow, A contribution to the theory of economic growth, Q. J. Econ. 70(1) (1956) 65–94.
W. Nordhaus, Managing the Global Commons: The Economics of Climate Change (MIT, Cambridge, 1994).
IPCC, in: Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, eds. N. Nakicenovic and R. Swart (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2000).
IPCC, in: Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, eds. J.J. McCarthy, O.F. Canziani, N.A. Leary, D. Dokken and K.S. White (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2001).
J. Gallup, J. Sachs and A. Mellinger, Geography and Economic Development. CID Working Paper 1 (Harvard Center for International Development, Cambridge, 1999).
P.D. Cox, R. Betts, C. Jones, S. Spall and I. Totterdell, Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedback in a coupled climate model, Nature 408 (2000) 184–187.
P. Friedlingstein, J.-L. Dufresne, P. Cox and P. Rayner, How positive is the feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle, Tellus 55B(2) (2003) 692–700.
R. Tol, The damage costs of climate change towards a dynamic representation, Ecol. Econ. 19 (1996) 67–90.
S. Fankhauser, J. Smith and R. Tol, Weathering climate change. Some simple rules to guide adaptation investments, Ecol. Econ. 30(1) (1999) 67–78.
R. Tol, New estimates of the damage costs of climate change: part I. Benchmark estimates, Environ. Resour. Econ. 21(1) (2002) 47–73.
P. Ambrosi, J.-C. Hourcade, S. Hallegatte, P. Lecocq, P. Dumas and M. Ha Duong, Optimal control models and elicitation of attitudes towards climate damages, Environ. Model. Assess. 8(3) (2003) 133–147.
H. Bode, Network Analysis and Feedback Amplifier Design (Van Nostrand, New York, 1945).
A. Haurie, Turnpike in multi-discount rate environment and GCC policy evaluation. NCCR Working Paper (2002) 4–10.
J.W.H. Liu, The multifrontal method for sparse matrix solution: Theory and practice, SIAM Rev. 34 (1992) 82–109.