The impact of the belt and road initiative on the Suez Canal cargo trade
Tóm tắt
The Suez Canal (SC) serves as the shortest maritime transport route from east to west. In the absence of the SC, global trade and transportation costs would increase substantially, impeding the expansion potential of the global economy. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a key component of China's future international trading network, with significant implications for global seaborne trade. The BRI's two primary pillars are the Maritime Silk Road (MSR) and the Silk Road Economic Belt, both of which have significant infrastructural investments. The MSR connects China to various regions in Asia, Africa, and Europe via the SC, thereby serving as a significant maritime trade route on a global scale, particularly between Europe and China. This is due to the SC's distinctive positioning on the MSR. Consequently, studying the significance of BRI for the SC cargo trade is crucial. This study uses annual data from 1990 to 2022 to examine this dynamic relationship. To account for the interaction effect of the variables, we use the vector autoregressive model and the impulse response function. Model results show that China's seaborne trade will increase SC trade by 23%, and China's BRI investment projects are anticipated to have a 5% significant impact on SC cargo trade and will continue to grow in the medium and long run. According to these findings, the SC has to continue to adopt more flexible pricing and marketing strategies to encourage and attract more customers. As a result, the SC could become a global logistics center and transform from a trade gateway to a global hub if it develops more value-added activities in its adjacent areas and attracts substantial Chinese investments.
Từ khóa
Tài liệu tham khảo
Ardianto R, Chhetri P, Oktriana B, Lee PT-W, Lee JY (2023) Modelling spatio-temporal patterns of Chinese foreign direct investment under the Belt and Road Initiative. J Int Logistics Trade 21(4):220–254. https://doi.org/10.1108/JILT-03-2023-0019
Alam KM, Li X, Baig S (2019) Impact of transport cost and travel time on trade under China-Pakistan economic corridor (CPEC). J Adv Transp. https://doi.org/10.1155/2019/7178507
Baniya S, Rocha N, Ruta M (2020) Trade effects of the new silk road: a gravity analysis. J Dev Econ 146:102467. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2020.102467
Bi M, Zhang Z, Wei G, Liu B (2023) On the sino-egyptian geo-relations in the perspective of the belt and road based on event data analysis. Cogent Soc Sci 9(1):2160535. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311886.2022.2160535
Chen K, Xu S, Haralambides H (2020) Determining hub port locations and feeder network designs: the case of China-West Africa trade. Transp Policy 86:9–22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2019.12.002
De Soyres F, Mulabdic A, Murray S, Rocha N, Ruta M (2019) How much will the Belt and Road Initiative reduce trade costs? Int Econ 159:151–164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2019.07.003
Dickey DA, Fuller WA (1979) Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. J Am Stat Assoc 74(366a):427–431. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531
Dickey DA, Fuller WA (1981) Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econ J Econ Soc. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912517
Du J, Zhang Y (2018) Does one belt one road initiative promote Chinese overseas direct investment? China Econ Rev 47:189–205. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2017.05.010
Elsherbiny K, Tezdogan T, Kotb M, Incecik A, Day S (2019) Experimental analysis of the squat of ships advancing through the New Suez Canal. Ocean Eng 178:331–344. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2019.02.078
Fan S, Yang Z, Wang J, Marsland J (2022) Shipping accident analysis in restricted waters: lesson from the Suez Canal blockage in 2021. Ocean Eng 266:113119. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2022.113119
Ferrari C, Tei A (2020) Effects of BRI strategy on Mediterranean shipping transport. J Shipping Trade 5(1):14. https://doi.org/10.1186/s41072-020-00067-x
Feyrer J (2021) Distance, trade, and income—The 1967 to 1975 closing of the Suez Canal as a natural experiment. J Dev Econ 153:102708. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2021.102708
Gao T, Lu J (2019) The impacts of strait and canal blockages on the transportation costs of the Chinese fleet in the shipping network. Marit Policy Manag 46(6):669–686. https://doi.org/10.1080/03088839.2019.1594423
Haralambides HE, Merk O (2020) The Belt and Road Initiative: impacts on global maritime trade flows. Int Transport Forum Discuss Paper. https://doi.org/10.1787/2281f06f-en
Hoffmann J, Saeed N, Sødal S (2020) Liner shipping bilateral connectivity and its impact on South Africa’s bilateral trade flows. Maritime Econ Logist 22:473–499. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41278-019-00124-8
Ibrahim O, Seon H, Kim H (2019) The impact of belt & road initiative on the New Suez canal and some implications. e-비즈니스연구 20(5):193–206. https://doi.org/10.20462/TeBS.2019.10.20.5.193
Jiang B, Li J, Gong C (2018) Maritime shipping and export trade on “Maritime Silk Road.” Asian J Shipp Logist 34(2):83–90. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajsl.2018.06.005
Jiang M, Liu Y, Lu J, Qu Z, Yang Z (2023) Risk assessment of maritime supply chains within the context of the Maritime Silk Road. Ocean Coast Manag 231:106380. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2022.106380
Laih CH, Chuang YF, Wang RC, Sun PY (2022) Development of an adjustable step toll scheme in compliance with expected effects of queuing reduction for the Suez Canal. Res Transp Bus Manag 44:100717. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rtbm.2021.100717
Lee JMY, Wong EYC (2021) Suez Canal blockage: an analysis of legal impact, risks and liabilities to the global supply chain. In: MATEC web of conferences (Vol. 339, p. 01019). EDP Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/202133901019
Lee PTW, Zhang Q, Suthiwartnarueput K, Zhang D, Yang Z (2020) Research trends in Belt and Road Initiative studies on logistics, supply chains, and transportation sector. Int J Logistics Res Appl 23(6):525–543. https://doi.org/10.1080/13675567.2020.1828318
Lee PTW (2016) China’s Growing Engagement in the Emerging Maritime Logistics Market in Africa. In: Lee PTW, Cullinane K (eds) Dynamic Shipping and Port Development in the Globalized Economy. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137514233_3
Lee PTW, Hu ZH, Lee SJ, Choi KS, Shin SH (2018) Research trends and agenda on the Belt and Road (B&R) initiative with a focus on maritime transport. Marit Policy Manag 45(3):282–300. https://doi.org/10.1080/03088839.2017.1400189
Lee PTW, Hu ZH, Lee S, Feng X, Notteboom T (2022) Strategic locations for logistics distribution centers along the Belt and Road: Explorative analysis and research agenda. Transp Policy 116:24–47. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.10.008
Luke R, Mageto J (2023) Impact of China’s belt and road initiative on logistics management in Africa: a bibliometric analysis. J Int Logist Trade 21(4):204–219. https://doi.org/10.1108/JILT-03-2023-0014
Lu S, Chen N, Zhou W, Li S (2024) Impact of the belt and road initiative on trade status and FDI attraction: a local and global network perspective. Int Rev Econ Financ 89:1468–1495. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2023.09.003
Mostafa MM (2004) Forecasting the Suez Canal traffic: a neural network analysis. Marit Policy Manag 31(2):139–156. https://doi.org/10.1080/0308883032000174463
Mueller LM (2019) ASEAN centrality under threat–the cases of RCEP and connectivity. J Contemp East Asia Stud 8(2):177–198. https://doi.org/10.1080/24761028.2019.1691703
Nugent JB, Lu J (2021) China’s outward foreign direct investment in the Belt and Road Initiative: What are the motives for Chinese firms to invest? China Econ Rev 68:101628. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2021.101628
Notteboom TE (2012) Towards a new intermediate hub region in container shipping? Relay and interlining via the Cape route vs. the Suez route. J Transp Geogr 22:164–178. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2012.01.003
Notteboom T, Pallis A, Rodrigue JP (2020) Port economics, management and policy. Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780429318184
Paderon MM, Ang III RB (2020) Possible effects of China’s belt and road initiative on Philippine trade and investments. https://pids.gov.ph/publications/7107
Peng HR, Qi SZ, Zhang YJ (2021) Does trade promote energy efficiency convergence in the Belt and Road Initiative countries? J Clean Prod 322:129063. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.129063
Rakha A, El-Aasar K (2024) Economic impacts of the maritime silk road initiative on the Suez Canal. J Appl Econ 27(1):2308949. https://doi.org/10.1080/15140326.2024.2308949
Said SE, Dickey DA (1984) Testing for unit roots in autoregressive-moving average models of unknown order. Biometrika 71(3):599–607. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/71.3.599
Saeed N, Cullinane K, Gekara V, Chhetri P (2021) Reconfiguring maritime networks due to the Belt and Road Initiative: impact on bilateral trade flows. Marit Econ Logist 23(3):381–400. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41278-021-00192-9
Saeed N, Nguyen S, Cullinane K, Gekara V, Chhetri P (2023) Forecasting container freight rates using the Prophet forecasting method. Transp Policy. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2023.01.012
Shibasaki R, Azuma T, Yoshida T, Teranishi H, Abe M (2017) Global route choice and its modelling of dry bulk carriers based on vessel movement database: Focusing on the Suez Canal. Res Transp Bus Manag 25:51–65. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rtbm.2017.08.003
Shibasaki R, Yoshida T, Azuma T (2016) Route choice of containership on a global scale and model development: focusing on the Suez Canal. Int J Transp Econ 43(3):263–288
Sims CA (1980) Macroeconomics and reality. Econ J Econ Soc. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912017
Sirimanne SN, Hoffman J, Juan W, Asariotis R, Assaf M, Ayala G, Premti A (2023) Review of maritime transport 2023. In: United Nations conference on trade and development, Geneva, Switzerland. https://unctad.org/publication/review-maritime-transport-2023
Song Z-Y, Chhetri P, Ye G, Lee PT-W (2023) Green maritime logistics coalition by green shipping corridors: a new paradigm for the decarbonisation of the maritime industry. Int J Logistics Res Appl. https://doi.org/10.1080/13675567.2023.2256243
Suez Canal Authority (2023) Canal characteristics. Retrieved from. https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Pages/default.aspx, Accessed date: January 1, 2024.
Wan Z, Su Y, Li Z, Zhang X, Zhang Q, Chen J (2023) Analysis of the impact of Suez Canal blockage on the global shipping network. Ocean Coast Manag 245:106868. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2023.106868
Wangping Y, Xiaolu L (2018) Study on the interaction between China and Japan’s economy based on FDI, import and export trade. Stud Bus Econ 13(1):194–208. https://doi.org/10.2478/sbe-2018-0015
Wang X, Wong YD, Yuen KF, Li KX (2020) Environmental governance of transportation infrastructure under Belt and Road Initiative: a unified framework. Transp Res Part a Policy Pract 139:189–199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2020.03.001
Wang X, Wong YD, Li KX, Yuen KF (2021) Transport research under Belt and Road Initiative: current trends and future research agenda. Transp a Transp Sci 17(4):357–379. https://doi.org/10.1080/23249935.2020.1731008
Yang Z, Sun Y, Lee PTW (2020) Impact of the development of the China-Europe Railway Express–A case on the Chongqing international logistics center. Transp Res Part a Policy Pract 136:244–261. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2020.03.022
Yu S, Sun S (2019) Belt and Road Initiative in China: the impact of real openness on service trade. Am J Ind Bus Manag 9(6):1431–1445. https://doi.org/10.4236/ajibm.2019.96094
Zeng Q, Lu T, Lin KC, Yuen KF, Li KX (2020) The competitiveness of Arctic shipping over Suez Canal and China-Europe railway. Transp Policy 86:34–43. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2019.11.005
Zhang J, Ren M, Lu X, Li Y, Cao J (2022) Effect of the belt and road initiatives on trade and its related LUCC and ecosystem services of central asian nations. Land 11(6):828. https://doi.org/10.3390/land11060828
Zhu S, Fu X, Ng AK, Luo M, Ge YE (2018) The environmental costs and economic implications of container shipping on the Northern Sea Route. Marit Policy Manag 45(4):456–477. https://doi.org/10.1080/03088839.2018.1443228