The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño

Vecchi, G. A. & Wittenberg, A. T. El Niño and our future climate: Where do we stand? Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change (in the press).

Fedorov, A. V. Estimating net energy dissipation rates in the tropical ocean: diabatic effects on ENSO dynamics. J. Climate 20, 1099–1108 (2007).

Roberts, W. G. H. & Battisti, D. S. A new tool for evaluating the physics of coupled atmosphere-ocean variability in nature and in General Circulation Models. Clim. Dynam. (in the press).

Philip, S. & van Oldenborgh, G. J. Significant atmospheric nonlinearities in the ENSO cycle. J. Climate 22, 4014–4028 (2009).

Philip, S. Y. & van Oldenborgh, G. J. Atmospheric properties and ENSO: models versus observations. Clim. Dynam. 10.1007/s00382-009-0579-7 (in the press).

Guilyardi, E. et al. Understanding El Niño in ocean–atmosphere General Circulation Models: progress and challenges. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 90, 325–340 (2009).

McPhaden, M. J. & Zhang, X. B. Asymmetry in zonal phase propagation of ENSO sea surface temperature anomalies. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L13703 (2009).

Meehl, G. A. et al. The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset: A new era in climate change research. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 88, 1383–1394 (2007).

van Oldenborgh, G. J., Philip, S. & Collins, M. El Niño in a changing climate: a multi-model study. Ocean Sci. 2, 267–298 (2005).

Guilyardi, E. El Niño mean state seasonal cycle interactions in a multi-model ensemble. Clim. Dynam. 26, 329–348 (2006).

AchutaRao, K. & Sperber, K. ENSO simulations in coupled ocean-atmosphere models: are the current models better? Clim. Dynam. 27, 1–15 (2006).

Merryfield, W. J. Changes to ENSO under CO2 doubling in a multimodel ensemble. J. Climate 19, 4009–4027 (2006).

Capotondi, A., Wittenberg, A. & Masina, S. Spatial and temporal structure of tropical Pacific interannual variability in 20th century coupled simulations. Ocean Model. 15, 274–298 (2006).

Lengaigne, M. & Vecchi, G. A. Contrasting the termination of moderate and extreme El Niño events in Coupled General Circulation Models. Clim. Dynam. 10.1007/s00382-009-0562-3 (in the press).

Philip, S. Y. & van Oldenborgh, G. J. Shifts in ENSO coupling processes under global warming. Geophys. Res. Letts. 33, L11704 (2006).

Jin, F.-F., Kim, S. T. & Bejarano, L. A coupled-stability index for ENSO. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L23708 (2006).

Lloyd, J., Guilyardi, E., Weller, H. & Slingo, J. The role of atmosphere feedbacks during ENSO in the CMIP3 models. Atmos. Sci. Lett. 10, 170–176 (2009).

Jin, F-F., An, S-I., Timmermann, A. & Zhao, J. Strong El Nino events and nonlinear dynamical heating. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30, 1120 (2003).

An, S-I. A review of interdecadal changes in the nonlinearity of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 97, 29–40 (2009).

Pezzulli, S., Stephenson, D. & Hannachi, A. The variability of seasonality. J. Climate 18, 71–88 (2005).

Yang, H. & Zhang, Q. Anatomizing the ocean's role in ENSO changes under global warming. J. Climate 21, 6539–6555 (2008).

An, S. I., Kug, J. S., Ham, Y. G. & Kang, I. S. Successive modulation of ENSO to the future greenhouse warming. J. Climate 21, 3–21 (2008).

Held, I. M. & Soden, B. J. Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J. Climate 19, 5686–5699 (2006).

Vecchi, G. A. et al. Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing. Nature 441, 73–76 (2006).

Vecchi, G. A. & Soden, B. J. Global warming and the weakening of the tropical circulation. J. Climate 20, 4316–4340 (2007).

Power, S. B. & Smith, I. N. Weakening of the Walker circulation and apparent dominance of El Niño both reach record levels, but has ENSO really changed? Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L18702 (2007).

Zhang, M. & Song, H. Evidence of deceleration of atmospheric vertical overturning circulation over the tropical Pacific. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L12701 (2006).

Bunge, L. & Clarke, A. J. A verified estimation of the El Niño index Niño-3.4 since 1877. J. Climate 22, 3979–3992 (2009).

Karnauskas, K. B., Seager, R., Kaplan, A., Kushnir, Y. & Cane, M. A. Observed strengthening of the zonal sea surface temperature gradient across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. J. Climate 22, 4316–4321 (2009).

DiNezio, P. N. et al. Climate response of the equatorial Pacific to global warming. J. Climate 22, 4873–4892 (2009).

Yeh, S-W. et al. El Nino in a changing climate. Nature 461, 511–514 (2009).

Zhang, Q., Guan, Y. & Yang, H. ENSO amplitude change in observation and coupled models. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 25, 361–366 (2008).

An, S-I. Interannual variations of the tropical ocean instability wave and ENSO. J. Climate 21, 3680–3686 (2008).

DiNezio, P., Clement, A. & Vecchi, G. A. Reconciling Differing Views of Tropical Pacific Climate Change. EOS, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union 91, 141–152 (2010).

Collins, M. et al. El Nino- or La Nina-like climate change? Clim. Dynam. 24, 89–104 (2005).

Liu, Z., Vavrus, S., He, F., Wen, N. & Zhong, Y. Rethinking tropical ocean response to global warming: The enhanced equatorial warming. J. Climate 18, 4684–4700 (2005).

Xie, S. P. et al. Global warming pattern formation: Sea surface temperature and rainfall. J. Climate 23, 966–986 (2010).

Gastineau, G., Li, L. & Le Treut, H. The Hadley and Walker circulation changes in global warming conditions described by idealised atmospheric simulations. J. Climate 22, 3993–4013 (2009).

Lin, J-L. The double-ITCZ problem in IPCC AR4 coupled GCMs: Ocean–atmosphere feedback analysis. J. Climate 20, 4497–4525 (2007).

Inness, P. M. & Slingo, J. M. Simulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in a coupled general circulation model I: Comparison with observations and an atmosphere-only GCM. J. Climate 16, 345–364 (2003).

Lin, J. L. et al. Tropical intraseasonal variability in 14 IPCC AR4 climate models. Part I: Convective signals. J. Climate 19, 2665–2690 (2006).

Cobb, K., Charles, C. D., Cheng, H. & Edwards, R. L. El Niño-Southern Oscillation and tropical Pacific climate during the last millenium. Nature 424, 271–276 (2003).

Tudhope, A. W. et al. Variability in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation through a glacial-interglacial cycle. Science 291, 1511–1517 (2001).

D'Arrigo, R., Cook, E., Wilson, R., Allan, R. & Mann, M. On the variability of ENSO over the past six centuries. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L03711 (2005).

Rosenthal, Y. & Broccoli, A. J. In search of paleo-ENSO. Science 304, 219–221 (2004).

Brown, J., Collins, M., Tudhope, A. W. & Toniazzo, T. Modelling mid-Holocene tropical climate and ENSO variability: Towards constraining predictions of future climate change with palaeo-data. Clim. Dynam. 30, 19–36 (2008).

Timmermann, A., Lorenz, S., An, S. I., Clement, A. & Xie, S-P. The effect of orbital forcing on the mean climate and variability of the tropical Pacific. J. Climate 20, 4147–4159 (2007).

Otto-Bliesner et al. A comparison of PMIP2 model simulations and the MARGO proxy reconstruction for tropical sea surface temperatures at last glacial maximum. Clim. Dynam. 32, 799–815 (2009).

Crowley, T. Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years. Science 289, 270–277 (2000).

Mann, M., Cane, M., Zebiak, S. & Clement, A. Volcanic and solar forcing of the tropical pacific over the past 1000 years. J. Climate 18, 417–456 (2005).

Emile-Geay, J., Seager, R., Cane, M. A., Cook, E. C. & Haug, G. H. Volcanoes and ENSO over the past millennium. J. Climate 21, 3134–3148 (2008).

Wittenberg, A. T. Are historical records sufficient to constrain ENSO simulations? Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L12702 (2009).

Power, S., Haylock, M., Colman, R. & Wang, X. The predictability of interdecadal changes in ENSO and ENSO teleconnections. J. Climate 8, 2161–2180 (2006).

Power, S. B. & Colman, R. Multi-year predictability in a coupled general circulation model. Clim. Dynam. 26, 247–272 (2006).

Zelle, H. et al. El Nino and greenhouse warming: Results from ensemble simulations with the NCAR CCSM. J. Climate 18, 4669–4683 (2005).

Meehl, G. A., Teng, H. & Branstator, G. Future changes of El Niño in two global coupled climate models. Clim. Dynam. 26, 549–566 (2006).

Yeh, S. W., Park, Y. G. & Kirtman, B. P. ENSO amplitude changes in climate change commitment to atmospheric CO2 doubling. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L13711 (2006).

Yeh, S. W. & Kirtman, B. P. ENSO amplitude changes due to climate change projections in different coupled models. J. Climate 20, 203–217 (2007).

Cherchi, A., Masina, S. & Navarra, A. Impact of extreme CO2 levels on tropical climate: a CGCM study. Clim. Dynam. 31, 743–758 (2008).

Park, W. et al. Tropical Pacific climate and its response to global warming in the Kiel climate model. J. Climate 22, 71–92 (2009).

Guilyardi, E. et al. Atmosphere feedbacks during ENSO in a coupled GCM with a modified atmospheric convection scheme. J. Climate 22, 5698–5718 (2009).

Bony, S. & Dufresne, J. L. Marine boundary layer clouds at the heart of tropical cloud feedback uncertainties in climate models. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L20806 (2005).

Lengaigne, M. et al. Triggering of El Nino by westerly wind events. Clim. Dynam. 23, 601–620 (2004).

Vecchi, G. A., Wittenberg, A. T. & Rosati, A. Reassessing the role of stochastic forcing in the 1997–8 El Niño. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L01706 (2006).

Gebbie, G., Eisenman, I., Wittenberg, A. & Tziperman, E. Modulation of westerly wind bursts by sea surface temperature: A semistochastic feedback for ENSO. J. Atmos. Sci. 64, 3281–3295 (2007).

Zavala-Garay, J. et al. Sensitivity of hybrid ENSO models to unresolved atmospheric variability. J. Climate 21, 3704–3721 (2008).

Maes, C., Picaut, J. & Belamari, S. Salinity barrier layer and onset of El Nino in a Pacific coupled model. Geophs. Res. Lett. 29, 2206 (2002).

Zhang, R-H. & Busalacchi, A. J. Freshwater flux (FWF)-induced oceanic feedback in a hybrid coupled model of the tropical Pacific. J. Climate 22, 853–879 (2009).

Yu, J. Y. & Liu, W. T. A linear relationship between ENSO intensity and tropical instability wave activity in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30, L1735 (2003).

Seo, H., Jochum, M., Murtugudde, R., Miller, A. J. & Roads, J. O. Feedback of tropical instability-wave-induced atmospheric variability onto the ocean. J. Climate 20, 5842–5855 (2007).

Roberts, M. J. et al. Impact of resolution on the tropical Pacific circulation in a matrix of coupled models. J. Climate 22, 2541–2556 (2009).

Collins, M. et al. A comparison of perturbed physics and multi-model ensembles: Model errors, feedbacks and forcings. Clim. Dynam. 10.1007/s00382-010-0808-0 (in the press).