The economic burden of chronic diseases: Estimates and projections for China, Japan, and South Korea

Journal of the Economics of Ageing - Tập 17 - Trang 100163 - 2020
David E. Bloom1, Simiao Chen1, Michael Kuhn2, Mark E. McGovern3,4, Les Oxley5, Klaus Prettner6
1Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, United States
2Wittgenstein Centre (IIASA, VID/ÖAW, WU), Vienna Institute of Demography, Austria
3CHARMS - Centre for Health Research at the Management School, Queen's University Belfast, United Kingdom
4UKCRC Centre of Excellence for Public Health (Northern Ireland), United Kingdom
5Waikato Management School, The University of Waikato, New Zealand
6University of Hohenheim, Institute of Economics, Germany

Tài liệu tham khảo

Abegunde D., Stanciole A., 2006. An estimation of the economic impact of chronic noncommunicable diseases in selected countries. WHO Working Paper, Department of Chronic Diseases and Health Promotion, Geneva. Acemoglu, 2002, Directed technical change, Rev. Econ. Stud., 69, 781, 10.1111/1467-937X.00226 Acemoglu, 2007, Disease and development: the effect of life expectancy on economic growth, J. Political Econ., 115, 925, 10.1086/529000 Acemoglu, 2014, Disease and development: a reply to Bloom, Canning, and Fink, J. Political Econ., 122, 1367, 10.1086/677190 Aghion, 2011, The relationship between health and growth: when Lucas meets Nelson-Phelps, Rev. Econ. Institutions, 2, 1 Barro, 1991, Economic growth in a cross section of countries, Quart. J. Econ., 106, 407, 10.2307/2937943 Barro, 2013, A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010, J. Dev. Econ., 104, 184, 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2012.10.001 Beaulieu, 2009, Breakaway: the global burden of cancer challenges and opportunities Bloom, 2012 Bloom, 2014, China and India’s descent into chronic disease: killing themselves slowly, Milken Institute Review, 2nd Quarter, 24 Bloom, 2014, The macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases in China and India: estimates, projections, and comparisons, J. Econ. Ageing, 4, 100, 10.1016/j.jeoa.2014.08.003 Bloom, 2014, Disease and development revisited, J. Political Econ., 122, 1355, 10.1086/677189 Bloom, 2018, The economic burden of noncommunicable diseases and mental health conditions: results for Costa Rica, Jamaica, and Peru, Rev. Panam. Salud Publica, 42, 18 Bloom, 2007, Demographic change, social security systems, and savings, J. Monetary Econ., 54, 92, 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2006.12.004 Bloom, 2014, Optimal retirement with increasing longevity, Scand. J. Econ., 116, 838, 10.1111/sjoe.12060 Bloom, 2004, The effect of health on economic growth: a production function approach, World Dev., 32, 1, 10.1016/j.worlddev.2003.07.002 Bloom, D.E., Chen, S., Kuhn, M., McGovern, M.E., Oxley, L., Prettner, K., 2017. The Economic Burden of Chronic Diseases: Estimates and Projections for China, Japan, and South Korea. NBER Working Paper No. 23601, Cambridge, MA. Bloom, 2015 Bloom, 2011 Bloom, D.E., Kuhn, M., Prettner, K., forthcoming. Health and economic growth. In: Oxford Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance, Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK. Caplin, 2004, The social discount rate, J. Political Econ., 112, 1257, 10.1086/424740 Chang, 2012, The socioeconomic burden of coronary heart disease in Korea, J. Preventive Med. Public Health, 45, 291, 10.3961/jpmph.2012.45.5.291 Cervellati, 2011, Life expectancy and economic growth: the role of the demographic transition, J. Econ. Growth, 16, 99, 10.1007/s10887-011-9065-2 Currie, 2000, Are cost of injury studies useful?, Injury Prevention, 6, 175, 10.1136/ip.6.3.175 Cutler, 2006, The determinants of mortality, J. Econ. Perspect., 20, 1, 10.1257/jep.20.3.97 Dielemann, 2016, US spending on personal health care and public health, 1996–2013, J. Am. Med. Assoc., 316, 2627, 10.1001/jama.2016.16885 Durlauf, 2005, Growth econometrics, 555, 10.1016/S1574-0684(05)01008-7 Dwyer, 1999, Health problems as determinants of retirement: are self-rated measures endogenous?, J. Health Econ., 18, 173, 10.1016/S0167-6296(98)00034-4 Eberhardt, 2011, Econometrics for grumblers: a new look at the literature on cross country growth empirics, J. Econ. Surveys, 25, 109, 10.1111/j.1467-6419.2010.00624.x Frankovic, I., Kuhn, M., Wrzaczek, S., 2017. Medical progress, demand for health care, and economic performance. No. 08/2017. ECON WPS-Vienna University of Technology Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy. Global Burden of Disease Study 2015, 2016. Global burden of disease study 2015 (GBD 2015) results. Seattle, United States: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). Griliches, 1969, Capital-skill complementarity, Rev. Econ. Stat., 51, 465, 10.2307/1926439 Grossmann, 2013, Dynamically optimal R&D subsidization, J. Econ. Dyn. Control, 37, 516, 10.1016/j.jedc.2012.10.007 Hall, 1999, Why do some countries produce so much more output per worker than others?, Quart. J. Econ., 114, 83, 10.1162/003355399555954 Heckman, 2006, Earnings functions, rates of return and treatment effects: The Mincer equation and beyond, 1, 307, 10.1016/S1574-0692(06)01007-5 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, 2013 International Diabetes Federation, 2015. IDF diabetes atlas – seventh ed. URL:http://www.diabetesatlas.org. International Labour Organization, 2015 Islam, 1995, Growth empirics: a panel data approach, Quart. J. Econ., 110, 1127, 10.2307/2946651 Jäckle, 2010, Health and wages: panel data estimates considering selection and endogeneity, J. Hum. Resour., 45, 364, 10.3368/jhr.45.2.364 Jäger, S., 2016. How Substitutable Are Workers? Evidence from Worker Deaths. Mimeo, Url:https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/jaeger/files/jmpsimon.pdf. Jones, 2010, Sick of work or too sick to work? Evidence on self-reported health shocks and early retirement from the BHPS, Econ. Model., 27, 866, 10.1016/j.econmod.2009.10.001 Jones, 1995, R&D-based models of economic growth, J. Political Econ., 103, 759, 10.1086/262002 Kearney, 2005, Global burden of hypertension: analysis of worldwide data, Lancet, 365, 217, 10.1016/S0140-6736(05)17741-1 Kim, 2008, The economic burden of cancer in Korea in 2002, Eur. J. Cancer Care, 17, 136, 10.1111/j.1365-2354.2007.00818.x Krusell, 2000, Capital-skill complementarity and inequality: a macroeconomic analysis, Econometrica, 68, 1029, 10.1111/1468-0262.00150 Kuhn, 2016, Growth and welfare effects of health care in knowledge-based economies, J. Health Econ., 46, 100, 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2016.01.009 Kuhn, 2015, Optimal choice of health and retirement in a life-cycle model, J. Econ. Theory, 158, 186, 10.1016/j.jet.2015.04.006 Lakdawalla, 2010, An economic evaluation of the war on cancer, J. Health Econ., 29, 333, 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2010.02.006 Lim, 2009, Socioeconomic costs of stroke in Korea: estimated from the Korea national health insurance claims database, J. Prev. Med. Public Health, 42, 251, 10.3961/jpmph.2009.42.4.251 Lindeboom, 2009, Health and work of the elderly: subjective health measures, reporting errors and endogeneity in the relationship between health and work, J. Appl. Econom., 24, 1024, 10.1002/jae.1077 López-Casasnovas, 2005 Lozano, 2011, Progress towards millennium development goals 4 and 5 on maternal and child mortality: an updated systematic analysis, Lancet, 378, 1139, 10.1016/S0140-6736(11)61337-8 Luca, 2018, Benefits and Costs of the Women’s Health Targets for the Post-2015 Development Agenda, 244 Lucas, 1988, On the mechanics of economic development, J. Monetary Econ., 22, 3, 10.1016/0304-3932(88)90168-7 McGarry, 2004, Health and retirement: do changes in health affect retirement expectations?, J. Hum. Resour., 39, 624, 10.2307/3558990 Mincer, 1974, Schooling and earnings, 41 Murphy, 2006, The value of health and longevity, J. Political Econ., 114, 871, 10.1086/508033 Murray, 2013, Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2010, Lancet, 380, 2197, 10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61689-4 Nishimura, 2004, Cost impact of COPD in Japan: opportunities and challenges?, Respirology, 9, 466, 10.1111/j.1440-1843.2004.00617.x Feenstra, 2015, The next generation of the penn world table, Am. Econ. Rev., 105, 3150, 10.1257/aer.20130954 Prettner, 2014, Increasing life expectancy and optimal retirement in general equilibrium, Econ. Theor., 56, 191, 10.1007/s00199-013-0776-9 Pritchett, 1996, Wealthier is healthier, J. Hum. Resour., 34, 841, 10.2307/146149 Psacharopoulos, 2018, Returns to investment in education: a decennial review of the global literature, Educ. Econ., 26, 445, 10.1080/09645292.2018.1484426 Ramsey, 1928, A mathematical theory of saving, Econ. J., 38, 543, 10.2307/2224098 Rice, 2000, Cost of illness studies: what is good about them?, Injury Prevention, 6, 177, 10.1136/ip.6.3.177 Sala-i-Martin, 1997, I just ran two million regressions, Am. Econ. Rev., 87, 178 Sala-i-Martin, 2004, Determinants of long-term growth: A Bayesian averaging of classical estimates (BACE) approach, Am. Econ. Rev., 94, 813, 10.1257/0002828042002570 Solow, 1956, A contribution to the theory of economic growth, Quart. J. Econ., 70, 65, 10.2307/1884513 Suhrcke, 2010, Are cardiovascular diseases bad for economic growth?, Health Econ., 19, 1478, 10.1002/hec.1565 Viscusi, 2003, The value of a statistical life: a critical review of market estimates throughout the world, J. Risk Uncertainty, 27, 5, 10.1023/A:1025598106257 Weil, 2007, Accounting for the effect of health on economic growth, Quart. J. Econ., 122, 1265, 10.1162/qjec.122.3.1265 Weil, 2014, Health and economic growth, vol. 2 World Bank, 2015. World development indicators, 2015.http://data.worldbank.org/indicatorID-57. World Bank, 2017 World Health Organization, 2009