The determinants of crop yields in Uganda: what is the role of climatic and non-climatic factors?

Agriculture & Food Security - Tập 7 Số 1 - Trang 1-17 - 2018
Epule, Terence Epule1, Ford, James D.1,2, Lwasa, Shuaib3, Nabaasa, Benon3, Buyinza, Ambrose3
1Department of Geography, McGill University, Montreal, Canada
2Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
3Department of Geography, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda

Tóm tắt

It is widely accepted that crop yields will be affected by climate change. However, the role played by climate in affecting crop yields vis-a-vis non-climatic stresses, is often unclear, limiting decision choices around efforts to promote increased production in light of multiple stresses. This study quantifies the role of climatic and non-climatic factors affecting multiple crop yields in Uganda, utilizing a systematic approach which involves the use of a two-stage multiple linear regression to identify and characterize the most important drivers of crop yield, examine the location of the key drivers, identify the socio-economic implications of the drivers and identify policy options to enhance agricultural production. We find that non-climatic drivers of crop yields such as forest area dynamics (p = 0.012), wood fuel (p = 0.032) and usage of tractors (0.041) are more important determinants of crop yields than climatic drivers such as precipitation, temperature and CO2 emissions from forest clearance. Climatic drivers are found to multiply existing risks facing production, the significance of which is determined by variability and inadequate distribution of precipitation over the crop growing seasons. The significance and validity of these results is observed in an f-statistic of 50 for the final optimized model when compared to the initial model with an f-statistic of 19.3. Research and agricultural policies have to be streamlined to include not only the climatic elements but also the non-climatic drivers of global, regional and national agricultural systems.

Tài liệu tham khảo

International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge (IAASTD). Agriculture at a crossroads. Global report Chs 1, 4. Island Press. 2009.

http://www.agassessment.org/reports/IAASTD/EN/Agriculture

at a Crossroads Global Report (English).

The Royal Society. Reaping the benefits: science and the sustainable intensification of global agriculture 1–10, 47–50 (The Royal Society). 2009.

http://royalsociety.org/

.

citation_journal_title=Nature; citation_title=Solutions for a cultivated planet; citation_author=JA Foley, N Ramankutty, KA Brauman, E Cassidy, J Greber, M Johnston, ND Mueller, C O’Connell, DK Ray, PC West, C Balzer, EM Bennett, SR Carpenter, J Hill, C Monfredo, S Polasky, J Rockstrom, J Sheehan, S Siebert, D Tilman, DPM Zaks; citation_volume=478; citation_publication_date=2011; citation_pages=337-478; citation_doi=10.1038/nature10452; citation_id=CR3

citation_journal_title=Philos Trans R Soc B; citation_title=Food consumption trends and drivers; citation_author=J Kearney; citation_volume=365; citation_publication_date=2010; citation_pages=2793-2807; citation_doi=10.1098/rstb.2010.0149; citation_id=CR4

citation_journal_title=Philos Trans R Soc B; citation_title=Income distribution trends and future food demand; citation_author=X Cirera, E Masset; citation_volume=365; citation_publication_date=2010; citation_pages=2821-2834; citation_doi=10.1098/rstb.2010.0164; citation_id=CR5

citation_journal_title=Science; citation_title=Breeding technologies to increase crop production in a changing world; citation_author=M Tester, P Langridge; citation_volume=327; citation_publication_date=2010; citation_pages=818-822; citation_doi=10.1126/science.1183700; citation_id=CR6

citation_journal_title=Nat Geosci; citation_title=Tripling crop yields in tropical Africa; citation_author=PA Sanchez; citation_volume=3; citation_publication_date=2010; citation_pages=299-300; citation_doi=10.1038/ngeo853; citation_id=CR7

citation_journal_title=Nat Geosci; citation_title=Deforestation driven by urban population growth and agricultural trade in the twenty-first century; citation_author=RS DeFries, T Rudel, M Uriarte, M Hansen; citation_volume=3; citation_publication_date=2010; citation_pages=178-181; citation_doi=10.1038/ngeo756; citation_id=CR8

citation_journal_title=Science; citation_title=Climate trends and global crop production since 1980; citation_author=DB Lobell, W Schlenker, J Costa-Roberts; citation_volume=333; citation_issue=6042; citation_publication_date=2011; citation_pages=616-620; citation_doi=10.1126/science.1204531; citation_id=CR9

citation_journal_title=Food Secur; citation_title=Expanding the boundaries of agricultural development; citation_author=R Naylor; citation_volume=3; citation_publication_date=2011; citation_pages=233-251; citation_doi=10.1007/s12571-011-0123-6; citation_id=CR10

citation_journal_title=PNAS; citation_title=Global food security under climate change; citation_author=J Schmidhuber, FN Tubiello; citation_volume=104; citation_publication_date=2007; citation_pages=19703-19708; citation_doi=10.1073/pnas.0701976104; citation_id=CR11

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The State of Food Insecurity in the World: Economic crises—Impacts and lessons learned 8–12, FAO, Rome, Italy. 2009.

http://www.fao.org/3/a-i0876e.pdf

.

citation_title=Enough: why the world’s poorest starve in an age of plenty Chs 2, 4, 12; citation_publication_date=2009; citation_id=CR13; citation_author=R Thurow; citation_author=S Kilman; citation_publisher=Perseus Books

citation_journal_title=Science; citation_title=Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat; citation_author=DS Battisti, RL Naylor; citation_volume=2009; citation_issue=323; citation_publication_date=2009; citation_pages=240-244; citation_doi=10.1126/science.1164363; citation_id=CR14

citation_journal_title=Nature; citation_title=The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment; citation_author=RH Moss, JA Edmonds, KA Hibbard, MR Manning, SK Rose, DP Vuuren, TR Carter, S Emori, M Kainum, T Kram, GA Meehl, JFB Mitchell, N Nakicenovic, K Riahi, SJ Smith, RJ Stouffer, AM Thomson, JP Weyant, TJ Wilbanks; citation_volume=463; citation_publication_date=2010; citation_pages=747-756; citation_doi=10.1038/nature08823; citation_id=CR15

Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations Statistics Division (FAO) and United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO). Agricultural mechanization in Africa…Time for action. Planning investment for enhanced agricultural productivity report of an expert group meeting in January 2008, Vienna Austria. FAO, Rome. 2008.

http://www.unido.org/fileadmin/user_media/Publications/Pub_free/agricultural_mechanization_in_Africa.pdf

.

citation_journal_title=Ann Rev Environ Resour; citation_title=Crop yield gaps: their importance, magnitudes and causes; citation_author=DB Lobell, KG Cassman, CB Field; citation_volume=34; citation_publication_date=2009; citation_pages=179-204; citation_doi=10.1146/annurev.environ.041008.093740; citation_id=CR17

citation_journal_title=Food Secur; citation_title=Integrating a boarder notion of food security and gender empowerment into the African green revolution; citation_author=J Negin, R Remans, S Karuti, JC Fanzo; citation_volume=1; citation_publication_date=2009; citation_pages=351-360; citation_doi=10.1007/s12571-009-0025-z; citation_id=CR18

citation_journal_title=PLoS Biol; citation_title=Inputs subsidies to improve smallholder maize productivity in Malawi: towards an African green revolution; citation_author=G Denning, P Kabambe, P Sanchez, A Malik, R Flor, R Harawa, P Nkhoma, C Zambia, Magombo C Banda; citation_volume=7; citation_publication_date=2009; citation_pages=e1000023; citation_doi=10.1371/journal.pbio.1000023; citation_id=CR19

Kaizzi K. Application of the GYGA approach to Uganda. Uganda. 2014.

http://www.yieldgap.org/gygamaps/excel/GygaUganda.xlsx

.

citation_journal_title=Exp Agric; citation_title=A review of methods for measuring crop production from small-holder producers; citation_author=CD Poate; citation_volume=24; citation_publication_date=1988; citation_pages=1-14; citation_doi=10.1017/S0014479700015659; citation_id=CR21

IFAD. Enabling poor rural people to overcome poverty in Uganda: rural poverty in Uganda. Rome, Italy. 2012.

www.ifad.org

.

Mubiru DN, Kyazze FB, Radeny M, Zziwa A, Lwasa J, Kinyangi J. Climatic trends, risk perceptions and coping strategies of smallholder farmers in rural Uganda. CCAFS Working Paper no. 121. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark. 2015.

www.ccafs.cgiar.org

.

citation_journal_title=Renew Energy; citation_title=Monthly average daily global irradiation map for Uganda. A location in the equatorial region; citation_author=J Mubiru, EJKB Banda; citation_volume=41; citation_publication_date=2012; citation_pages=412-415; citation_doi=10.1016/j.renene.2011.11.018; citation_id=CR24

Farley C, Farmer A. Uganda climate change vulnerability report. USAID. 2013.

http://community.eldis.org/.5b9bfce3/ARCC-Uganda%20VA-Report.pdf

.

Government of Uganda, Ministry of Water and Environment. 2008 Inception Report: climate change vulnerability assessment, adaptation strategy and action plan for the water resources sector in Uganda. One World Sustainable Investments. Directorate of Water Resource Management. 2008.

Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations Statistics Division (FAO). FAOSTAT. 2016.

http://faostat3.fao.org/download/Q/QC/E

.

citation_journal_title=Reg Envron Change; citation_title=The causes, effects and challenges of Sahelian droughts: a critical review; citation_author=TE Epule, C Peng, L Lepage, Z Chen; citation_volume=14; citation_publication_date=2014; citation_pages=145-156; citation_doi=10.1007/s10113-013-0473-z; citation_id=CR28

citation_journal_title=Glob Change Biol; citation_title=Evidence from rain-use efficiencies does not indicate extensive Sahelian desertification; citation_author=SD Prince, E Brown De Coulston, LL Kravitz; citation_volume=4; citation_publication_date=1998; citation_pages=359-374; citation_doi=10.1046/j.1365-2486.1998.00158.x; citation_id=CR29

citation_journal_title=Clim Dyn; citation_title=Impact of greenhouse warming on the West African summer monsoon; citation_author=K Maynard, JF Royer, F Chauvin; citation_volume=19; citation_publication_date=2002; citation_pages=499-514; citation_doi=10.1007/s00382-002-0242-z; citation_id=CR30

citation_journal_title=J Clim; citation_title=Tropical rainfall trends and the indirect aerosol affect; citation_author=LD Rotstayn, U Lohmann; citation_volume=14; citation_publication_date=2002; citation_pages=2103-2116; citation_doi=10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2103:TRTATI>2.0.CO;2; citation_id=CR31

citation_journal_title=J Clim; citation_title=Assessment of twenty-century regional surface temperature trends using the GFDL CM2 coupled models; citation_author=TR Knutson, TL Delworth, KW Dixon, IM Held, J Lu, V Ramaswamy, MD Schwarzkopf, G Stenchikov, RJ Stouffer; citation_volume=19; citation_publication_date=2006; citation_pages=1624-1651; citation_doi=10.1175/JCLI3709.1; citation_id=CR32

McSweeney C, New M, Lizcano G. UNDP climate change country profiles: Uganda. 2010.

http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk/

. Accessed 15 Mar 2017.

citation_journal_title=Bull Am Meteorol Soc; citation_title=The UNDP climate change country profiles improving the accessibility of observed and projected climate information for studies of climate change in developing countries; citation_author=C McSweeney, M New, G Lizcano, X Lu; citation_volume=91; citation_publication_date=2010; citation_pages=157-166; citation_doi=10.1175/2009BAMS2826.1; citation_id=CR34

citation_journal_title=J Geogr Geol; citation_title=Forest loss triggers in Cameroon: a quantitative assessment using multiple linear regression approach; citation_author=TE Epule, P Changhui, L Laurent, C Zhi; citation_volume=3; citation_issue=1; citation_publication_date=2011; citation_pages=30-40; citation_id=CR35

citation_journal_title=Br J Environ Clim Change; citation_title=The environmental quadruple: forest area, rainfall, CO2 emissions and arable production interactions in Cameroon; citation_author=TE Epule, P Changhui, L Laurent, C Zhi, BS Nguh; citation_volume=2; citation_issue=1; citation_publication_date=2012; citation_pages=12-27; citation_doi=10.9734/BJECC/2012/1035; citation_id=CR36

citation_journal_title=Clim Change; citation_title=Tropical deforestation and atmospheric carbon dioxide; citation_author=RA Houghton; citation_volume=19; citation_publication_date=1991; citation_pages=99-118; citation_doi=10.1007/BF00142217; citation_id=CR37

citation_journal_title=Appl Geogr; citation_title=Spatial modeling of deforestation in southern Cameroon: spatial disaggregation of diverse deforestation processes; citation_author=B Mertens, E Lambin; citation_volume=17; citation_issue=2; citation_publication_date=1997; citation_pages=143-162; citation_doi=10.1016/S0143-6228(97)00032-5; citation_id=CR38

citation_journal_title=Popul Environ; citation_title=Population dynamics and tropical deforestation: state of the debate and conceptual challenges; citation_author=D Carr, L Suter, A Barbieri; citation_volume=27; citation_publication_date=2005; citation_pages=90-113; citation_doi=10.1007/s11111-005-0014-x; citation_id=CR39

citation_journal_title=Science; citation_title=Agricultural intensification and ecosystem properties; citation_author=PA Matson, WJ Parton, AG Power, MJ Swift; citation_volume=277; citation_publication_date=1997; citation_pages=504-509; citation_doi=10.1126/science.277.5325.504; citation_id=CR40

citation_journal_title=Sci Total Environ; citation_title=Land-use versus natural controls on soil fertility in the Subandean Amazon, Peru; citation_author=L Lindell, M Astrom, T Oberg; citation_volume=408; citation_issue=4; citation_publication_date=2010; citation_pages=965-975; citation_doi=10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.10.039; citation_id=CR41

citation_journal_title=Land Use Policy; citation_title=Can organic fertilizers set the pace for a greener arable agricultural revolution in Africa? Analysis, synthesis and way forward; citation_author=TE Epule, CR Bryant, C Akkari, O Daouda; citation_volume=47; citation_issue=1; citation_publication_date=2015; citation_pages=179-187; citation_doi=10.1016/j.landusepol.2015.01.033; citation_id=CR42

citation_journal_title=Science; citation_title=Integration of environmental, agronomic, and economic aspects of fertilizer management; citation_author=PA Matson, R Naylor, I Ortiz-Monasterio; citation_volume=280; citation_publication_date=1998; citation_pages=112-114; citation_doi=10.1126/science.280.5360.112; citation_id=CR43

citation_journal_title=J Agric Sci; citation_title=Survey of mechanization problems of small scale (peasant) Farmers in the middle belt of Nigeria; citation_author=JK Yohanna, AU Fulani, W Akaama; citation_volume=3; citation_issue=2; citation_publication_date=2011; citation_pages=262-266; citation_id=CR44

citation_journal_title=Int J Food Agric Res; citation_title=Farm machinery utilization for sustainable agricultural production in Nasarawa State of Nigeria; citation_author=JK Yohanna; citation_volume=1&2; citation_publication_date=2007; citation_pages=193-199; citation_id=CR45

citation_journal_title=Land use Policy; citation_title=Policy options to reduce deforestation based on a systematic approach of drivers and agents in lowland Bolivia; citation_author=R Muller, T Pistorius, S Rohde, G Gerold, P Pacheco; citation_volume=30; citation_publication_date=2013; citation_pages=895-907; citation_doi=10.1016/j.landusepol.2012.06.019; citation_id=CR46

citation_journal_title=Science; citation_title=Plant diversity and productivity experiments in European grassland; citation_author=A Hector, B Schmid, C Beierkuhnlein, C Caldeira, M Diemer, PG Dimitrakopoulos, JA Finn, H Freitas, PS Giller, J Good, R Harris, P Hogberg, K Huss-Danell, J Joshi, A Jumpponen, C Korner, PW Leadley, A Minns, PH Mulder, GO Donovan, SJ Otway, JS Pereira, A Prinz, DJ Read, M Scherer-Lorenzen, ED Schulze, ASD Siamantziouras, EM Spehn, AC Terry, AY Troumbis, FI Woodward, S Yachi, JH Lawton; citation_volume=286; citation_issue=5442; citation_publication_date=1999; citation_pages=1123-1127; citation_doi=10.1126/science.286.5442.1123; citation_id=CR47

citation_journal_title=Agric Syst; citation_title=The yield gap of global grain production: a spatial analysis; citation_author=K Neumann, PH Verburg, E Stehfest, C Muller; citation_volume=103; citation_publication_date=2010; citation_pages=316-326; citation_doi=10.1016/j.agsy.2010.02.004; citation_id=CR48

citation_journal_title=Agric For Meteorol; citation_title=Global dimming: a review of the evidence for a widespread and significant reduction in global radiation with discussion of its probable causes and possible agricultural consequences; citation_author=G Stanhill, S Cohen; citation_volume=107; citation_publication_date=2010; citation_pages=225-278; citation_id=CR49

citation_journal_title=Field Crops Res; citation_title=Changes in yield and yield stability in wheat during the 20th century; citation_author=D Calderini, G Slafer; citation_volume=57; citation_publication_date=1998; citation_pages=335-347; citation_doi=10.1016/S0378-4290(98)00080-X; citation_id=CR50

Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations Statistics Division (FAO). Forest Resource Assessment. FAO Forestry paper no. 163. Rome: FAO; 2010.

http://www.fao.org

.

citation_journal_title=Vegetation; citation_title=Distribution patterns of forest trees in Uganda and their historical significance; citation_author=AC Hamilton; citation_volume=29; citation_publication_date=1974; citation_pages=21-35; citation_doi=10.1007/BF02390893; citation_id=CR52

Wood GB, Wiant HV Jr. editors. Modern methods of estimating tree and log volume. In: Proceedings of IUFRO conference, Morgantown, West Virginia, 14–16 June 1993. West Virginia University Publication Services. 1993.

citation_journal_title=Am J Agric Econ; citation_title=Welfare implications of community forest plantations in developing countries: the Orissa Social Forestry Project; citation_author=G Kohlin, G Amacher; citation_volume=87; citation_issue=4; citation_publication_date=2006; citation_pages=855-869; citation_doi=10.1111/j.1467-8276.2005.00774.x; citation_id=CR54

citation_journal_title=World Dev; citation_title=Woodfuels, livelihoods, and policy interventions: changing perspectives; citation_author=JEM Arnold, G Köhlin, R Persson; citation_volume=34; citation_issue=3; citation_publication_date=2006; citation_pages=596-611; citation_doi=10.1016/j.worlddev.2005.08.008; citation_id=CR55

citation_journal_title=Ethnobot Leaflets; citation_title=Household firewood consumption and its dynamics in Kalisizo sub-county, central Uganda; citation_author=AJ Godfrey, K Denis, W Daniel, OC Akais; citation_volume=14; citation_publication_date=2010; citation_pages=841-855; citation_id=CR56

DFID. Energy for the poor: underpinning the millennium development goals. London: Department for International Development; 2002.

http://www.dfid.gov.uk/Documents/publications/energyforthepoor.pdf

.

citation_title=Report of the AFTEG/AFTRS joint seminar on household energy and woodland management; citation_publication_date=2002; citation_id=CR58; citation_publisher=World Bank

citation_journal_title=Biomass Bioenergy; citation_title=Firewood use in Bulamogi County, Uganda: species selection, harvesting and consumption patterns; citation_author=JRS Tabuti, SS Dhilliona, KA Lye; citation_volume=25; citation_publication_date=2003; citation_pages=581-596; citation_doi=10.1016/S0961-9534(03)00052-7; citation_id=CR59

citation_journal_title=Environ Dev Econ; citation_title=Household welfare and forest dependence in Southern Malawi; citation_author=M Fisher; citation_volume=9; citation_publication_date=2004; citation_pages=135-154; citation_doi=10.1017/S1355770X03001219; citation_id=CR60

citation_journal_title=Ecol Eng; citation_title=Reforestation of Pinus massoniana alters soil organic carbon and nitrogen dynamics in eroded soil in south China; citation_author=X Dan, Q Deng, M Li, W Wang, Q Zhang, X Cheng; citation_volume=52; citation_publication_date=2013; citation_pages=154-160; citation_doi=10.1016/j.ecoleng.2012.12.099; citation_id=CR61

citation_journal_title=Bio Sci; citation_title=Proximate causes and underlying driving forces of tropical deforestation; citation_author=HJ Geist, EF Lambin; citation_volume=52; citation_publication_date=2002; citation_pages=143-150; citation_id=CR62

citation_journal_title=Science; citation_title=Global food security: challenges and policies; citation_author=MW Rosegrant, SA Cline; citation_volume=302; citation_publication_date=2003; citation_pages=1917-1919; citation_doi=10.1126/science.1092958; citation_id=CR63

citation_journal_title=Ecol Res; citation_title=Land use change in Asia and ecological consequences; citation_author=S Zhao, C Peng, D Jiang, X Lei, X Zhou; citation_publication_date=2006; citation_id=CR64

citation_journal_title=Environ. Manag; citation_title=What drives accelerated land cover change in central Argentina? Synergistic consequences of climatic, socioeconomic, and technological Factors; citation_author=RM Zak, DC Cabido, S Diaz; citation_volume=42; citation_publication_date=2008; citation_pages=181-189; citation_doi=10.1007/s00267-008-9101-y; citation_id=CR65

citation_title=Principles of farm machinery; citation_publication_date=1978; citation_id=CR66; citation_author=RA Kepner; citation_author=R Bainer; citation_author=EL Barger; citation_publisher=AVI Publishing Company, Inc.

citation_journal_title=Geophy Res Lett; citation_title=Vegetation index trends for the African Sahel 1982–1999; citation_author=L Eklundh, L Olsson; citation_volume=30; citation_issue=8; citation_publication_date=2003; citation_pages=1430; citation_doi=10.1029/2002GL016772; citation_id=CR67

citation_journal_title=Global Environ Change; citation_title=Climatic perspective on Sahelian desiccation: 1973–1998; citation_author=M Hulme; citation_volume=11; citation_publication_date=2001; citation_pages=19-29; citation_doi=10.1016/S0959-3780(00)00042-X; citation_id=CR68

citation_journal_title=Water Resour Res; citation_title=Role of vegetation dynamics in enhancing the low-frequency variability of the Sahel rainfall; citation_author=G Wang, AB Eltahir; citation_volume=36; citation_issue=4; citation_publication_date=2000; citation_pages=1013-1021; citation_doi=10.1029/1999WR900361; citation_id=CR69

International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD). The Challenge of ending rural poverty. Rural Poverty Report. 2001.

http://www.ifad.org

.

citation_journal_title=Ambio; citation_title=Variations in the size of the Sahara desert from 1980 to 1997; citation_author=CJ Tucker, SE Nicholson; citation_volume=2009; citation_issue=28; citation_publication_date=1999; citation_pages=587-591; citation_id=CR71

citation_journal_title=Glob Environ Change; citation_title=Recent trends in vegetation dynamics in the African Sahel and their relationship to climate; citation_author=SM Herrmann, A Anyamba, CJ Tucker; citation_volume=15; citation_publication_date=2005; citation_pages=394-404; citation_doi=10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2005.08.004; citation_id=CR72

citation_journal_title=J Arid Environ; citation_title=The recent greening of the Sahel-trends, patterns and potential causes; citation_author=L Olsson, L Eklundh, J Ardo; citation_volume=63; citation_issue=3; citation_publication_date=2005; citation_pages=556-566; citation_doi=10.1016/j.jaridenv.2005.03.008; citation_id=CR73

citation_journal_title=J Arid Environ; citation_title=Analysis of Sahelian vegetation dynamics using NOAA-AVHRR NDVI data from 1981–2003; citation_author=A Anyamba, CJ Tucker; citation_volume=63; citation_publication_date=2005; citation_pages=595-614; citation_doi=10.1016/j.jaridenv.2005.03.007; citation_id=CR74

citation_journal_title=Agric Ecosyst Environ; citation_title=Future scenarios of European agricultural land use. Estimating the changes in crop productivity; citation_author=F Ewert, MDA Rounsevell, I Reginster, MJ Metzger, R Leemans; citation_volume=107; citation_publication_date=2005; citation_pages=101-116; citation_doi=10.1016/j.agee.2004.12.003; citation_id=CR75

citation_journal_title=Agric Ecosyst Environ; citation_title=Are agricultural land-use models able to predict changes in land-use intensity?; citation_author=E Lambin, MDA Rounsevell, HJ Geist; citation_volume=82; citation_publication_date=2000; citation_pages=321-331; citation_doi=10.1016/S0167-8809(00)00235-8; citation_id=CR76

citation_journal_title=Agric Ecosyst Environ; citation_title=A dynamic simulation model of land-use changes in Sudano-Sahelian countries of Africa (SALU); citation_author=N Stephenne, EF Lambin; citation_volume=85; citation_publication_date=2001; citation_pages=145-161; citation_doi=10.1016/S0167-8809(01)00181-5; citation_id=CR77

citation_journal_title=Nature; citation_title=Paying to save the rainforests; citation_author=J Tollefson; citation_volume=460; citation_publication_date=2009; citation_pages=936-937; citation_doi=10.1038/460936a; citation_id=CR78

citation_journal_title=Science; citation_title=The end of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon; citation_author=D Nepstad, B Soares-Filho, F Merry, A Lima, P Moutinho, J Carter, M Bowman, A Cattaneo, H Rodrigues, S Schwartzman, DG McGrath, CM Sticker, R Lubowski, P Piris-Cabezas, S Rivero, A Alencar, O Almeida, O Stella; citation_volume=326; citation_issue=5958; citation_publication_date=2009; citation_pages=1350-1351; citation_doi=10.1126/science.1182108; citation_id=CR79

citation_journal_title=Ambio; citation_title=Opportunities and challenges to capturing the multiple potential benefits of REDD+ in a traditional Savana-Woodland Region in West Africa; citation_author=E Gunilla, A Olsson, S Outtara; citation_volume=42; citation_publication_date=2013; citation_pages=309-319; citation_doi=10.1007/s13280-012-0362-6; citation_id=CR80

Angelson A. Realising REDD+ : national strategy and policy options. Centre for International Forestry Research, Bogor, Indonesia. 2009.

http://www.cifor.org/publications/pdf_files/Books/BAngelsen0902.pdf

.

Mwape C, Gumbo D. Communities’ reorganization for REDD+ implementation in Zambia. In: Pathways for implementing REDD+. UNEP Perspectives Series2010. 2010.

http://cd4cdm.org/Publications/PathwaysImplementingREDDplus.pdf

.

Naughton-Treves L, Day C. Lessons about land tenure, forest governance and REDD+: case studies from Africa, Asia and Latin America. Land Tenure Center, UW-Madison. 2012.

https://www.nelson.wisc.edu/ltc/docs/Lessons-about-Land-Tenure-Forest-Governance-and-REDD.pdf

.

citation_journal_title=For Policy Econ; citation_title=An overview of forest and land allocation policies in Indonesia: is the current frame-work sufficient to meet the needs of REDD+?; citation_author=M Brockhaus, K Obidzinski, A Dermawan, Y Laumonier, C Luttrell; citation_volume=18; citation_publication_date=2012; citation_pages=30-37; citation_doi=10.1016/j.forpol.2011.09.004; citation_id=CR84

citation_title=Assessment of animal agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa; citation_publication_date=1992; citation_id=CR85; citation_author=AK Winrock; citation_publisher=Winrock International

Clarke L, Bishop C. Farm power-present and future availability in developing countries. Agricultural Engineering International: the CIGR Journal of Scientific Research and Development. Invited Overview Paper. Presented at the Special Session on Agricultural Engineering and International Development in the Third Millennium. ASAE Annual International Meeting/CIGR World Congress, 30 July 2002, Chicago, IL. USA. vol. IV. 2002.

https://ecommons.cornell.edu/bitstream/handle/1813/121/Clarke%20and%20Bishop%2018aOct2002.pdf?sequence=17

.

Sims BG, Kienzie J, Cuevas R, Wall G. Addressing the challenges facing agricultural mechanization input supply and farm product processing. In: Proceedings of an FAO workshop held at the CIGR world congress on agricultural engineering Bonn, Germany, 5–6 Sept 2006. FAO, Rome, Italy. 2007. ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/010/a1249e/a1249e.pdf.

citation_journal_title=J Eng Sci Technol; citation_title=An appraisal of farm power and equipment operation and management in Nasarawa State of Nigeria; citation_author=JK Yohanna; citation_volume=1; citation_issue=1; citation_publication_date=2006; citation_pages=58-61; citation_id=CR88

FAO. AQUASTAT. FAO. 2015.

http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/countries_regions/UGA/

.

Uganda Bureau of Statistics, UBOS. Uganda national household survey findings 2009/2010. 2010.

http://www.ubos.org/UNHS0910/chapter2_introduction.html

Accessed 7 March 2017.

citation_journal_title=Environ Dev Sustain; citation_title=Is rainfall gradient a factor of livelihood diversification? Empirical evidence from around climatic hotspots in Indo-Gangetic plains; citation_author=GD Bhatta, PK Aggarwal, AK Shrivastava, L Sproule; citation_volume=18; citation_publication_date=2016; citation_pages=1657-1678; citation_doi=10.1007/s10668-015-9710-6; citation_id=CR91

citation_journal_title=Curr Sci; citation_title=Climate and non-climatic factors influencing changing agricultural practices across different rainfall regimes in South Asia; citation_author=GD Bhatta, PK Aggarwal, P Kristjanson, AK Shrivastava; citation_volume=110; citation_publication_date=2016; citation_pages=7; citation_doi=10.18520/cs/v110/i4/573-578; citation_id=CR92

citation_journal_title=Agric Syst; citation_title=Exploring the relationship between climate change and rice yield in Bangladesh: an analysis of time series data; citation_author=MA Sarker, K Alam, J Gow; citation_volume=112; citation_publication_date=2012; citation_pages=11-16; citation_doi=10.1016/j.agsy.2012.06.004; citation_id=CR93

citation_journal_title=Eviron Res Lett; citation_title=Global climate crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming; citation_author=DB Lobell, CB Field; citation_volume=2; citation_issue=1–7; citation_publication_date=2007; citation_pages=014002; citation_doi=10.1088/1748-9326/2/1/014002; citation_id=CR94

citation_journal_title=Envion Res Lett; citation_title=Robust negative impacts of climate change on African agriculture; citation_author=W Schlenker, DB Lobell; citation_volume=5; citation_issue=1–8; citation_publication_date=2010; citation_pages=014010; citation_doi=10.1088/1748-9326/5/1/014010; citation_id=CR95

Mulatu DW, Eshete ZS, Gatiso RG. The impact of CO2 emissions on agricultural productivity and household welfare in Ethiopia. Environ. For Dev. Discussion paper Series; 2016.

http://www.efdinitiative.org/sites/default/files/publications/efd-dp-16-08.pdf

.

citation_journal_title=Philos Trans R Soc B; citation_title=Possible change to arable crop yields by 2050; citation_author=K Jaggard, A Qi, ES Ober; citation_volume=365; citation_publication_date=2010; citation_pages=2835-2851; citation_doi=10.1098/rstb.2010.0153; citation_id=CR97