The business cycle: periodic pandemic or rollercoaster ride?

International Journal of Economic Policy Studies - Tập 13 Số 2 - Trang 425-431 - 2019
James Morley1
1School of Economics, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia

Tóm tắt

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Hodrick, Robert J., & Prescott, Edward C. (1997). Postwar US business cycles: An empirical investigation. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 29, 1–16.

Beveridge, Stephen, & Nelson, Charles R. (1981). A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the business cycle. Journal of Monetary Economics, 7, 151–174.

Mitchell, Wesley A. (1927). Business cycles: The problem and its setting. New York: NBER.

Keynes, John Maynard. (1936). The general theory of employment, interest, and money. London: Macmillan.

Friedman, Milton. (1964). Monetary studies of the national bureau, the national bureau enters its 45th Year. 44th Annual Report (pp. 7–25). New York: NBER.

Friedman, Milton. (1993). The “plucking model” of business fluctuations revisited. Economic Inquiry, 31, 171–177.

Morley, James, & Panovska, Irina. (2019). Is business cycle asymmetry intrinsic in industrialized economies? Macroeconomic Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100518000913.

DeLong, J. Bradford, & Summers, Lawrence H. (1988). How does macroeconomic policy affect output? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2, 433–480.

Auroba, S. Boragan, Bocola, Luigi, & Schorfheide, Frank. (2013). Assessing DSGE model nonlinearities. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 83, 127–142.

Guerrieri, Luca, & Iacoviello, Matteo. (2016). Collateral constraints and macroeconomic asymmetries. Journal of Monetary Economics, 90, 28–49.

Diebold, Francis X., Schorfheide, Frank, & Shin, Minchul. (2017). Real-time forecast evaluation of DSGE models with stochastic volatility. Journal of Econometrics, 201, 322–332.

Lucas, Robert E., Jr. (1987). Models of business cycles. Oxford: Basil Blackwell.

Yellen, Janet L., & Akerlof, George A. (2006). Stabilization policy: A reconsideration. Economic Inquiry, 44, 1–22.

Gali, Jordi, Gertler, Mark, & David Lopez-Salido, J. (2007). Markups, gaps, and the welfare costs of business cycles. Review of Economics and Statistics, 89, 44–59.

Ferraro, Domenico, & Fiori, Giuseppe. (2018). The scarring effect of asymmetric business cycles. Working Paper, SSRN 3171730.

Morley, James, & Piger, Jeremy. (2012). The asymmetric business cycle. Review of Economics and Statistics, 94, 208–221.

Morley, James, & Piger, Jeremy. (2008). Trend/cycle decomposition of regime-switching processes. Journal of Econometrics, 146, 220–226.

Garratt, Anthony, Mitchell, James, & Vahey, Shaun P. (2014). Measuring output gap nowcast uncertainty. International Journal of Forecasting, 30, 268–279.

Perron, Pierre, & Wada, Tatsuma. (2009). Let’s take a break: Trends and cycles in US real GDP. Journal of Monetary Economics, 56, 749–765.

Perron, Pierre, & Wada, Tatsuma. (2016). Measuring business cycles with structural breaks and outliers: Applications to international data. Research in Economics, 70, 281–303.

Carrasco, Marine, Liang, Hu, & Ploberger, Werner. (2014). Optimal test for markov switching parameters. Econometrica, 82, 765–784.

Kim, Chang-Jin, Morley, James, & Piger, Jeremy. (2005). Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 20, 291–309.

Hamilton, James D. (2018). Why you should never use the hodrick–prescott filter. Review of Economics and Statistics, 100, 831–843.

Eo, Yunjong, & Morley, James. (2019). Why has the US economy stagnated since the great recession? Working Paper, SSRN 3077864.

Kim, Chang-Jin, & Nelson, Charles R. (1999). Friedman’s plucking model of business fluctuations: Tests and estimates of permanent and transitory components. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 31, 317–334.

Hamilton, James D. (1989). A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle. Econometrica, 57, 357–384.

Kim, Chang-Jin, & Murray, Christian J. (2002). Permanent and transitory components of recessions. In J. D. Hamilton & B. Raj (Eds.), Advances in Markov-switching models (pp. 19–39). Heidelberg: Physica.

Kim, Chang-Jin, & Piger, Jeremy. (2002). Common stochastic trends, common cycles, and asymmetry in economic fluctuations. Journal of Monetary Economics, 49, 1189–1211.

Kim, Chang-Jin, Piger, Jeremy, & Startz, Richard. (2007). The dynamic relationship between permanent and transitory components of US business cycles. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 39, 187–204.

Lo, Ming Chien, & Piger, Jeremy. (2005). Is the response of output to monetary policy asymmetric? Evidence from a regime-switching coefficients model. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 37, 865–887.

Fazzari, Steven, Morley, James, & Panovska, Irina. (2015). State-dependent effects of fiscal policy. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 19, 285–315.

Fazzari, Steven, Morley, James, & Panovska, Irina. (2018). When is discretionary fiscal policy effective? Working paper, SSRN 2921667.