The Role of Barents Sea Ice in the Wintertime Cyclone Track and Emergence of a Warm-Arctic Cold-Siberian Anomaly

Journal of Climate - Tập 25 Số 7 - Trang 2561-2568 - 2012
Jun Inoue1, M. Hori1, Kazuhiko Takaya2
1Research Institute for Global Change, JAMSTEC, Yokosuka, Japan
2Research Institute for Global Change, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan

Tóm tắt

AbstractSea ice variability over the Barents Sea with its resultant atmospheric response has been considered one of the triggers of unexpected downstream climate change. For example, East Asia has experienced several major cold events while the underlying temperature over the Arctic has risen steadily. To understand the influence of sea ice in the Barents Sea on atmospheric circulation during winter from a synoptic perspective, this study evaluated the downstream response in cyclone activities with respect to the underlying sea ice variability. The composite analysis, including all cyclone events over the Nordic seas, revealed that an anticyclonic anomaly prevailed along the Siberian coast during light ice years over the Barents Sea. This likely caused anomalous warm advection over the Barents Sea and cold advection over eastern Siberia. The difference in cyclone paths between heavy and light ice years was expressed as a warm-Arctic cold-Siberian (WACS) anomaly. The lower baroclinicity over the Barents Sea during the light ice years, which resulted from a weak gradient in sea surface temperature, prevented cyclones from traveling eastward. This could lead to fewer cyclones and hence to an anticyclonic anomaly over the Siberian coast.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Adakudlu, 2011, Impacts of the ice-cover and sea-surface temperature on a polar low over the Nordic seas: A numerical case study, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 1716, 10.1002/qj.856

Alexander, 2004, The atmospheric response to realistic Arctic sea ice anomalies in an AGCM during winter, J. Climate, 17, 890, 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<0890:TARTRA>2.0.CO;2

Bengtsson, 2004, The early twentieth-century warming in the Arctic—A possible mechanism, J. Climate, 17, 4045, 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<4045:TETWIT>2.0.CO;2

Blechschmidt, 2009, Large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns during polar low events over the Nordic seas, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D06115, 10.1029/2008JD010865

Businger, 1985, The synoptic climatology of polar low outbreaks, Tellus, 37A, 419, 10.1111/j.1600-0870.1985.tb00441.x

Cattiaux, 2010, Winter 2010 in Europe: A cold extreme in a warming climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L20704, 10.1029/2010GL044613

Cohen, 2010, Winter 2009–2010: A case study of an extreme Arctic Oscillation event, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L17707, 10.1029/2010GL044256

Croci-Maspoli, 2009, Key dynamical features of the 2005/06 European winter, Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 664, 10.1175/2008MWR2533.1

Deser, 2010, The seasonal atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss in the late twenty-first century, J. Climate, 23, 333, 10.1175/2009JCLI3053.1

Finnis, 2007, Response of Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclone activity and associated precipitation to climate change, as represented by the Community Climate System Model, J. Geophys. Res., 112, G04S42, 10.1029/2006JG000286

Francis, 2009, Winter Northern Hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07503, 10.1029/2009GL037274

Graversen, 2008, Vertical structure of recent Arctic warming, Nature, 541, 53, 10.1038/nature06502

Honda, 2009, Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08707, 10.1029/2008GL037079

Hori, 2011, Recurrence of intraseasonal cold air outbreak during the 2009/2010 winter in Japan and its ties to the atmospheric condition over the Barents-Kara Sea, SOLA, 7, 25, 10.2151/sola.2011-007

Ikeda, 1990, Decadal oscillations of the air-ice-ocean system in the Northern Hemisphere, Atmos.–Ocean, 28, 106, 10.1080/07055900.1990.9649369

Inoue, 2011, Arctic cyclogenesis at the marginal ice zone: A contributory mechanism for the temperature amplification?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L12502, 10.1029/2011GL047696

Jung, 2011, Origin and predictability of the extreme negative NAO winter of 2009/10, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L07701, 10.1029/2011GL046786

Kalnay, 1996, The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437, 10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2

Magnusdottir, 2004, The effects of North Atlantic SST and sea ice anomalies on the winter circulation in CCM3. Part I: Main features and storm track characteristics of the response, J. Climate, 17, 857, 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<0857:TEONAS>2.0.CO;2

Orsolini, 2012, Autumn atmospheric response to the 2007 low Arctic sea ice extent in coupled ocean–atmosphere hindcasts, Climate Dyn., 10.1007/s00382-011-1169-z

Overland, 2010, Hot Arctic–cold continents: Global impacts of Arctic change: International Polar Year Oslo Science Conference; Oslo, Norway, 8–12 June 2010, Eos, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 91, 373, 10.1029/2010EO410007

Petoukhov, 2010, A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D21111, 10.1029/2009JD013568

Rayner, 2003, Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4407, 10.1029/2002JD002670

Sakai, 2009, Remote response of the East Asian winter monsoon to tropical forcing related to El Ñino–Southern Oscillation, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D06105, 10.1029/2008JD010824

Screen, 2010, The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification, Nature, 464, 1334, 10.1038/nature09051

Serreze, 2011, Circulation and surface controls on the lower tropospheric air temperature field of the Arctic, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D07104, 10.1029/2010JD015127

Simmonds, 1999, Southern extratropical cyclone behavior in ECMWF analyses during the FROST special observing periods, Wea. Forecasting, 14, 878, 10.1175/1520-0434(1999)014<0878:SECBIE>2.0.CO;2

Sorteberg, 2006, Atmospheric forcing on the Barents Sea winter ice extent, J. Climate, 19, 4772, 10.1175/JCLI3885.1

Stroeve, 2011, Attribution of recent changes in autumn cyclone associated precipitation in the Arctic, Tellus, 63A, 653, 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2011.00515.x

Takaya, 2001, A formulation of a phase-independent wave-activity flux for stationary and migratory quasigeostrophic eddies on a zonally varying basic flow, J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 608, 10.1175/1520-0469(2001)058<0608:AFOAPI>2.0.CO;2

Zhang, 2004, Climatology and interannual variability of Arctic cyclone activity: 1948–2002, J. Climate, 17, 2300, 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<2300:CAIVOA>2.0.CO;2

Zhang, 2008, Recent radical shifts of atmospheric circulations and rapid changes in Arctic climate system, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L22701, 10.1029/2008GL035607