The Problems of Seismic Risk Prediction for the Territory of the Lower Amur Region: Paleoseismogeological and Seismological Analysis
Tóm tắt
The studied region is located at the junction between the Pacific and Central Asian seismoactive belts. Macroseismic data on earthquakes of this region are available for the last 150 years, while instrumental seismological observations began in the mid-20th century; however, the recurrence interval of strong earthquakes can be up to several centuries and even thousands of years. In this respect, many areas of the Amur region had been believed to be nearly aseismic until earthquakes occurred there. Paleoseismogeological studies of recent years have allowed the character of Holocene displacements to be estimated for some of the main regional structures. As a result, the main tendencies of the Late Quaternary geological evolution of the region remain uncertain and the potential seismogenerating structures are not completely known. Therefore the problem of revealing new zones and periods of seismic activity is topical for the entire Amur region. The importance of this problem is related to the weak degree of study of the region by contemporary methods of active tectonics, the intensive development of engineering infrastructure, which is vulnerable to seismic impacts, and the necessity of long-term seismic forecasting. The present work provides the results of paleoseismogeological studies of the active faults in the Amur region. On the basis of new data on the magnitude potential of seismogenerating structures based on the magnitudes of historical earthquakes and instrumentally recorded ones, we have estimated the seismic effects from strong deep-focus earthquakes and the attenuation coefficients and calculated radii of the first three isoseismals for crustal earthquakes. By using the methods of statistical modeling, we distinguish the periods when seismic effects increased from earthquakes with 2 ≤ M ≤ 6. It is shown that seismic hazard assessment should take into account the dynamics of the seismic regime, caused by the change of the earthquake source depth. It is found that the epicenters of earthquakes with 5 ≤ M ≤ 6 form non-crossing seismic zones in different phases of changes in the Earth’s annual rotation.
Tài liệu tham khảo
M. A. Akhmet’ev, V. D. Ovchininskii, and I. S. Stolyarov, Geological Map of the USSR. 1: 200000. Lower Amur Series, Sheet M-54-Sh: Explanatory Notes (VGGU, 1970) [in Russian].
V. G. Bykov, V. A. Bormotav, A. A. Kokovkin, M.N. Luneva, T. V. Merkulova, and F. S. Onukhov, “Seismogeodynamics, active tectonic structures, and seismic processes in East Asia,” in Environmental and Climatic Changes. Volume. 1. Seismic Processes and Catastrophes (IFZ RAN, Moscow, 2008), pp. 43–65 [in Russian].
V. G. Varnavskii, Geodynamics of Cenozoic Petroleum Sedimentary Basins of Active Continental Margins (Nauka, Moscow, 1994) [in Russian].
A. A. Vrublevskii, F. S. Onukhov, F. G. Korchagin, Chin Chun-tszin, L. A. Izosov, Duan Zhui Yan, and He Gonu, “Tectonic zoning and deep-seated heterogeneity of adjacent areas of eastern Russia and China,” Vestn. DVO RAN, No. 3, 7–21 (1996).
Geodynamics, Magmatism, and Metallogeny of East Russia, Ed. by A.I. Khanchuk (Dal’nauka, Vladivostok, 2006) [in Russian].
Geological Map of the Amur Region and Adjacent Territories. 1:2 500 000, Ed. by L. I. Krasnyi, A. S. Vol’skii, I. A. Vasil’ev, Yu. Pen, Ya. Syui, and I. Van (VSEGEI, MGMR KNR, Blagoveshchensk–Kharbin, 1999) [in Russian].
S. V. Gorkusha, F. S. Onukhov, and F. G. Korchagin, “Seismicity and neotectonics of the southern Russian Far East,” Tikhookean. Geol., No. 5, 61–68 (1999).
State Geological Map of the Russian Federation. 1: 1000000 (New Series). Sheet M-(53), 54, (55)-Khabarovsk: Explanatory Notes, (VSEGEI, St. Petersburg, 1994) [in Russian].
N. N. Gor’kavyi, Yu. A. Trapeznikov, and A. M. Fridman, “On the global component of the seismic process and its relation with observed features of the Earth’s rotation,” Dokl. Akad. Nauk 338 (4), 525–527 (1994).
N. N. Gor’kavyi, L. S. Levitskii, T. N. Taidakova, et al., “On correlation of plots of angular speed of the Earth’s rotation and module of its temporal derivatives with earthquake frequency depending on their magnitude,” Fiz. Zemli, No. 10, 33–38 (1994).
A. N. Didenko, B. C. Zakharov, and G. Z. Gil’manova, T. V. Merkulova, and M. V. Arkhipov, “Formalized analysis of crustal seismicity of the Sikhote-Alin orogen and adjacent areas,” Russ. J. Pac. Geol., 11 (2), 123–133 (2017).
V. Yu. Zabrodin, O. V. Rybas, and G. Z. Gil’manova, Fault Tectonics of the Continental Part of the Russian Far East (Dal’nauka, Vladivostok, 2015) [in Russian].
B. A. Ivanov, Central Sikhote-Alin Fault (Dal’nevost. kn. izd-vo, Vladivostok, 1972) [in Russian].
A. I. Ivashchenko, L. N. Poplavskaya, Ch. U. Kim, and T. V. Nagornykh, “Stressed state of the Earth’s crust of Sakhalin Island during preparation, manifestation, and development of source zones of strong earthquakes,” in Dynamics of Source Zones and Prediction of Strong Earthquakes of the Northwestern Pacific Ocean (IMGiG DVO RAN, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, 2001), Vol. 1, pp. 5–22 [in Russian].
B. C. Imaev, L. P. Imaeva, B. M. Koz’min, and A. L. Strom, “Seismotectonic deformation of the central part of the Aldan Shield,” Otechestvennaya Geol., No. 5, 84–89 (2010).
L. P. Imaeva, B. C. Imaev, O. P. Smekalin, B. M. Koz’-min, N. N. Grib, and A. V. Chipizubov, Seismotecctonic Map of East Siberia (TI (f) SVFU, Neryungri–Irkutsk, 2015) [in Russian].
Map of the Modern Vertical Movements of the Earth’s Crust at the USSR Territory. 1: 15000 000 (GUGK SSSR, Moscow, 1989) [in Russian].
A. I. Kozhurin, Extended Abstract of Doctoral Dissertation in Geology and Mineralogy (GIN RAN, Moscow, 2013).
Kulakov, F.M., Supervisor Control of the Manipulation Robots (Nauka, Moscow, 1980).
B. V. Levin, Kim Chun Un, T. V. Nagornykh, “Seismicity of Primorye and Amur Region in 1888–2008,” Vesti. DVO RAN, No. 6, 16–22 (2008).
N. N. Leonov, I. I. Bersenev, R. I. Grishkyan, et al., “Seismic zoning of Primorye and Amur Region,” in Seismic Zoning of the Kuril Islands, Amur and Primorye (DVNTs AN SSSR, Vladivostok, 1977), pp. 143–155 [in Russian].
V. L. Lomtev, S. P. Nikiforov, and Chun Un Kim, “Tectonic aspects of the crustal seismicity of Sakhalin,” Vestn. DVO RAN, No. 4, 64–71 (2007).
V. L. Lomtev, “Deformations of the August 2, 2007 Nevel’sk Shelf Earthquake (M ~ 6.1),” SW. Sakhalin, Geol. Polezn. Iskop. Mirovogo Okeana, No. 2, 35–47 (2010).
Yu. F. Malyshev, “Deep structure, geodynamics and seismicity in the junction zone of the Central Asian and Pacific mobile belts,” Tikhookean. Geol., No. 2, 18–27 (1998).
G. V. Masibroda, V. M. Nikol’skii, V. G. Varnavskii, and A. I. Pozdnyakova, Geological Map of the USSR. 1: 200000. Sikhote Alin Series. Sheet M-53-XXXIV. Explanatory Notes (DVGTU, Vladivostok, 1980) [in Russian].
V. M. Nikiforov, I. V. Dmitriev, and S. S. Starzhinskii, “Deep geoelectric structure and seismicity of Primorye, Far East,” Tikhookean. Geol. 25 (4), 18–25 (2006).
V. V. Nikolaev, P. M. Semenov, L. S. Oskorbin, et al., Sesimotectonics and Seismic Zoning of the Amur Region, Ed. by V. P. Solonenko (Nauka, Novosibirsk, 1989) [in Russian].
V. V. Nikolaev, A. A. Vrublevskii, V. A. Akhmadulin, and V. B. Kuznetsov, Geodynamics and Seismic Zoning of the Far East Continental Part (DVO RAN, Vladivostok, 2000) [in Russian].
A. N. Ovsyuchenko, S. V. Trofimenko, A. V. Marakhanov, P. S. Karasev, E. A. Rogozhin, B. C. Imaev, V. M. Nikitin, and N. N. Grib, “Detailed geological–geophysical studies of active fault zones and the seismic hazard in the South Yakutsk region,” Russ. J. Pac. Geol. 3 (4), 356–373 (2009).
A. N. Ovsyuchenko, S. S. Novikov, and A. V. Marakhanov, “New data on active faults of the lower Amur region,” in Faulting and Seismicity in the Lithosphere: Tectonophysical Concepts and Consequences (IZK SO RAN, Irkutsk, 2009), Vol. 1, pp. 183–185 [in Russian].
A. N. Ovsyuchenko, S. V. Trofimenko, A. V. Marakhanov, P. S. Karasev, and E. A. Rogozhin, “Source zones of strong earthquakes in Southern Yakutia as inferred from paleoseismological data,” Izv. Phys. Solid Earth 45 (2), 101–117 (2009).
A. N. Ovsyuchenko, S. V. Trofimenko, A. V. Marakhanov, P. S. Karasev, and E. A. Rogozhin, “Seismotectonics of the transitional region from the Baikal rift zone to orogenic rise of the Stanovoi Range,” Geotectonics, 48 (1), 25–44 (2010).
A. N. Ovsyuchenko, A. V. Marakhanov, R. N. Vakarchuk, A. S. Lar’kov, S. S. Novikov, and E. A. Rogozhin, “Geological and macroseismic manifestations of the October 16, 2011 Earthquake in the Skovorodinsk area of the Amur region,” Vopr. Inzh. Seismol. 39 (4), 5–18 (2012).
A. N. Ovsyuchenko, A. V. Kalinina, S. M. Ammosov, R. N. Vakarchuk, S. S. Novikov, A. S. Lar’kov, and A. V. Marakhanov, “Application of MASW seismic survey in seismotectonic studies with reference to the Russian Far East,” Inzh. Izysk., No. 2, 38–48 (2013).
A. V. Oleinikov and N. A. Oleinikov, Geological Signs of Seismicity and Paleoseismology of South Primorye (Dal’nauka, Vladivostok, 2001) [in Russian].
A. V. Oleinikov and N. A. Oleinikov, Paleoseismogeologiya (Dal’nauka, Vladivostok, 2009) [in Russian].
N. M. Organova, “Seismic manifestation of the modern movements of the southern Far East and adjacent areas,” in Modern Movements of the Earth’s Crust (Radio i svyaz', Moscow, 1982), pp. 103–108 [in Russian].
L. S. Oskorbin, “Seismogenic zoning of the southern Far East,” in Geodynamics of the Tectonosphere of the Pacific–Eurasia Junction Zone. Volume 4. Problems of Seismic Hazard of the Far East Region (IMGiG DVO RAN, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, 1997), pp. 111–153 [in Russian].
Paleoseismology,, Ed. by Dzh.P. McCalpin (Elsevier, San Diego, 2009) [in Russian].
A. N. Perestoronin and E. P. Razvozzhaeva, “The system of Cenozoic depressions in the Amur and Primorye regions: the structure, tectonic position, and geodynamic interpretation,” Russ. J. Pac. Geol. 5 (2), 139–154 (2011).
E. A. Rogozhin, A. N. Ovsyuchenko, S. V. Trofimenko, A.V. Marakhanov, and P. S. Karasev, “Seismotectonics of the junction zone between the Baikal rift zone and orogenic rise of the Stanovoi Range,” Geofiz. Issled, No. 8, 81–116 (2007).
E. A. Rogozhin, A. N. Ovsyuchenko, and A. I. Lutikov, A. L. Sobisevich, L. E. Sobisevich, and A. V. Gorbatikov, Endogenous Hazard of the Greater Caucasus (IFZ RAN, Moscow, 2014) [in Russian].
S. A. Salun, Tectonics and Evolution of the Sikhote-Alin Geosynclinal Fold System (Nedra, Moscow, 1978), p. 183 [in Russian].
V. G. Sakhno, The Youngest and Modern Volcanism of Southern Far East (Dal’nauka, Vladivostok, 2008) [in Russian].
O. P. Smekalin, B. C. Imaev, and A. V. Chipizubov, Paleoseismology of East Siberia: Some Experience of Practical Application (IZK SO RAN, Irkutsk, 2011) [in Russian].
A. V. Solomatin, “Compilation of refined model of the macroseismic field equation for the Kurile–Kamchatka region. Interpolation and regression approaches,” Vestn. KRAUNTs. Fiz.-Mat. Nauki, No. 1, 30–42 (2013).
V. P. Solonenko, “Determination of epicentral earthquake zones from geological signs,” Izv. Akad. Nauk SSSR, Ser. Geol., No. 11, 58–74 (1962).
M. I. Strel’tsov and B. C. Rozhdestvenskii, “Active faults of the Kurile–Okhotsk region, Sakhalin, Primorye, and Amur region,” in Seismicity and Seismic Zoning of Northern Eurasia (OIFZ RAN, Moscow, 1995), Nos. 2−3, pp. 387–407 [in Russian].
V. Yu. Timofeev, P. Yu. Gornov, D. G. Ardyukov, et al., “GPS Measurements (2003–2006) in the Sikhote Alin Network, the Far East,” Russ. J. Pac. Geol. 2 (4), 314–324 (2008).
S. V. Trofimenko, “Tectonic interpretation of statistical model of distribution of azimuths of gravity anomaly fields of the Aldan Shield,” Tikhookean. Geol., 2010, vol. 29, no. 3, 64–77 (2010).
S. V. Trofimenko, V. G. Bykov, and I. I. Kolodeznikov, “Spatial distribution of earthquake epicenters of the northeastern segment of the Amur miroplate and different phases of the Earth’s rotation,” Nauka Obrazovanie, 2015, No. 4 (80), pp. 41–44.
S V. Trofimenko, “Tectonic model of seismicity for the northeastern segment of the Amur Plate in the Earth’s two-phased rotation,” Russ. J. Pac. Geol. 10 (6), 427–434 (2016).
S. V. Trofimenko and V. G. Bykov, “Spatiotemporal distributions of earthquakes in the northeastern segment of the Amur Plate in two phases of variations in the modulus of the Earth’s rotation rate,” J. Volcanol. Seismol., 11 (2), 143–155. (2017).
G. F. Ufimtsev, Tectonic Analysis of Topography by the Example of USSR East (Nauka, Novosibirsk, 1984) [in Russian].
G. F. Ufimtsev, S. N. Alekseenko, and F. S. Onukhov, “Morphotectonics of the Lower Amur region,” Russ. J. Pac. Geol. 3 (6), 585–595 (2009).
A. I. Freidin and Yu. Ya. Livshits, Geological Map of the USSR. 1: 200000. Sikhote-Alin Series, Sheet M-54-VII: Explanatory Note (DVGU, Vladivostok, 1959) [in Russian].
A. I. Khanchuk, D. A. Safonov, Ya. B. Radziminovich, et al., “The largest recent earthquake in the Upper Amur region on October 14, 2011: first results of multidisciplinary study,” Dokl. Earth Sci. 445, 916–919 (2012).
N. V. Shebalin, “Assessment of seismic intensity,” in Seismic Scale and Methods of Measurement of Seismic Intensity (Nauka, Moscow, 1975), pp. 87–109 [in Russian].
A. Barth and F. Wenzel, “New constraints on the intraplate stress field of the Amurian Plate deduced from light earthquake focal mechanisms,” Tectonophysics 482, 160–169 (2010).
V. G. Bykov and S. V. Trofimenko, “Slow strain waves in blocky geological media from GPS and seismological observations on the Amurian Plate,” Nonlin. Processes Geophys. 23, 467–475 (2016).
Q. Deng, P. Zhang, Y. Ran, et al., “Basic characteristics of active tectonics of China,” Sci. in China. Series D.-Earth Sci. 46 (4), 356–372 (2003).
Q. Deng, Active Tectonics Map of China (Earthquake Press, Beijing, 2007).
W. Huang, W. Gao, and G. Ding, “Neogene volcanism and Holocene earthquakes in the Tanlu Fault Zone, eastern China,” Tectonophysics 260, 259–270 (1996).
M. Liu, Y. Yang, Zh. Shen, et al., “Active tectonics and intracontinental earthquakes in China: the kinematics and geodynamics,” Geol. Soc. Amer. Spec. Pap. 425, 299–318 (2007).
J. Ren, K. Tamaki, S. Li, and Z. Junxia, “Late Mesozoic and Cenozoic rifting in eastern China and adjacent areas,” Tectonophysics 344, 175–205 (2002).
S. V. Trofimenko, V. G. Bykov, and T. V. Merkulova, “Space-time model for migration of weak earthquakes along the northern boundary of the Amurian Microplate,” J. Seismol. (2016). doi 10.1007/sl0950-016-9600-x
D. L. Wells and K. J. Coppersmith, “New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement,” Bull. Seis. Soc. Am. 84 (4), 974–1002 (1994).