Nội dung được dịch bởi AI, chỉ mang tính chất tham khảo
Khoảng cách bảo vệ trước thảm họa thiên nhiên: Đo lường, Nguyên nhân gốc rễ và Các biện pháp khắc phục tình trạng thiếu bảo hiểm cho các sự kiện cực đoan
Tóm tắt
Khoảng cách bảo vệ trước tài sản toàn cầu trong rủi ro thiên tai đã ngày càng mở rộng trong 40 năm qua. Theo lịch sử, chúng tôi nhận thấy rằng hầu hết tình trạng thiếu bảo hiểm cho các sự kiện cực đoan xảy ra trong bối cảnh các sự kiện liên quan đến khí hậu như lũ lụt và bão, nhưng về mặt kỳ vọng, động đất chiếm tỷ lệ lớn nhất trong tình trạng thiếu bảo hiểm. Bằng cách sử dụng một khung để định nghĩa khoảng cách bảo vệ theo cả nghĩa lịch sử và kỳ vọng, bài báo này phân tích khoảng cách theo địa lý và loại rủi ro, đồng thời trình bày một phân tích thực nghiệm về các yếu tố chính thúc đẩy khoảng cách này. Đầu tiên, các tổn thất dự kiến từ thiên tai chưa được bảo hiểm được ước tính sử dụng các mô hình kết hợp bản đồ độ tổn thương địa vật lý, dữ liệu tiếp xúc kinh tế và thông tin thị trường bảo hiểm. Thứ hai, tỷ lệ thâm nhập bảo hiểm tài sản dự kiến (hoặc tối ưu) của mỗi quốc gia được mô hình hóa và so sánh với tỷ lệ thâm nhập thực tế để tạo ra một thước đo về tình trạng thiếu bảo hiểm tài sản. Thứ ba, chúng tôi khám phá các yếu tố ảnh hưởng đến nhu cầu bảo hiểm tài sản, áp dụng phân tích hồi quy cho một bộ dữ liệu bảng không đồng nhất bao gồm 53 quốc gia được quan sát trong 15 năm. Nhiều biến quan trọng liên quan đến kinh tế, thị trường tài chính, xã hội, văn hóa và thể chế đã được xác định. Những kết quả này dẫn đến một phân loại về nguyên nhân gốc rễ của tình trạng thiếu bảo hiểm và một tập hợp các biện pháp đề xuất để thu hẹp khoảng cách bảo vệ.
Từ khóa
#khoảng cách bảo vệ #thảm họa thiên nhiên #bảo hiểm tài sản #rủi ro thiên tai #thiếu bảo hiểm #phân tích thực nghiệmTài liệu tham khảo
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