The NCC mathematical modeling framework for decision-making of six major cancers

Journal of the National Cancer Center - Tập 3 - Trang 35-47 - 2023
Changfa Xia1, Wanqing Chen1
1Office of Cancer Screening, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China

Tài liệu tham khảo

Zheng, 2022, Cancer incidence and mortality in China, 2016, J Natl Cancer Cent, 2, 1, 10.1016/j.jncc.2022.02.002 Chen, 2017, Cancer incidence and mortality in China, 2013, Cancer Lett, 401, 63, 10.1016/j.canlet.2017.04.024 Cao, 2021, Cancer screening in China: the current status, challenges, and suggestions, Cancer Lett, 506, 120, 10.1016/j.canlet.2021.02.017 Wei, 2020, Cancer registration in China and its role in cancer prevention and control, Lancet Oncol, 21, e342, 10.1016/S1470-2045(20)30073-5 Chen, 2011, China Kadoorie Biobank of 0.5 million people: survey methods, baseline characteristics and long-term follow-up, Int J Epidemiol, 40, 1652, 10.1093/ije/dyr120 Sculpher, 2006, Whither trial-based economic evaluation for health care decision making?, Health Econ, 15, 677, 10.1002/hec.1093 Mutubuki, 2021, The statistical approach in trial-based economic evaluations matters: get your statistics together!, BMC Health Serv Res, 21, 475, 10.1186/s12913-021-06513-1 Berger, 2017, Good practices for real-world data studies of treatment and/or comparative effectiveness: recommendations from the joint ISPOR-ISPE special task force on real-world evidence in health care decision making, Value Health, 20, 1003, 10.1016/j.jval.2017.08.3019 Caro, 2012, Modeling good research practices–overview: a report of the ISPOR-SMDM modeling good research practices task force–1, Value Health, 15, 796, 10.1016/j.jval.2012.06.012 NCI's Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences. The Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET). 2022. Available from: https://cisnet.cancer.gov/. Meza, 2014, Comparative analysis of 5 lung cancer natural history and screening models that reproduce outcomes of the NLST and PLCO trials, Cancer, 120, 1713, 10.1002/cncr.28623 Meza, 2021, Evaluation of the benefits and harms of lung cancer screening with low-dose computed tomography: modeling study for the US preventive services task force, JAMA, 325, 988, 10.1001/jama.2021.1077 Knudsen, 2016, Estimation of benefits, burden, and harms of colorectal cancer screening strategies: modeling study for the US preventive services task force, JAMA, 315, 2595, 10.1001/jama.2016.6828 Criss, 2019, Cost-effectiveness analysis of lung cancer screening in the United States: a comparative modeling study, Ann Intern Med, 171, 796, 10.7326/M19-0322 Sun, 2021, Determining cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening in urban Chinese populations using a state-transition Markov model, BMJ Open, 11, 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-046742 Lu, 2022, Microsimulation Model for Prevention and Intervention of Coloretal Cancer in China (MIMIC-CRC): development, calibration, validation, and application, Front Oncol, 12 Zhao, 2022, Cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening using low-dose computed tomography based on start age and interval in China: modeling study, JMIR Public Health Surveill, 8, e36425, 10.2196/36425 Cenin, 2022, Optimising colorectal cancer screening in Shanghai, China: a modelling study, BMJ Open, 12, 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-048156 Xia, 2019, Projections up to 2100 and a budget optimisation strategy towards cervical cancer elimination in China: a modelling study, Lancet Public Health, 4, 462, 10.1016/S2468-2667(19)30162-8 Xia, 2021, Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of eliminating cervical cancer through a tailored optimal pathway: a modeling study, BMC Med, 19, 62, 10.1186/s12916-021-01930-9 National Health Commission. Key Works of Healthy China Action in 2022. 2022. Available from: http://www.nhc.gov.cn/guihuaxxs/s7788/202204/67cb879e0afd44ba916912367de56170.shtml. Zeng, 2018, Changing cancer survival in China during 2003-15: a pooled analysis of 17 population-based cancer registries, Lancet Glob Health, 6, e555, 10.1016/S2214-109X(18)30127-X Zeng, 2021, Disparities in stage at diagnosis for five common cancers in China: a multicentre, hospital-based, observational study, Lancet Public Health, 6, e877, 10.1016/S2468-2667(21)00157-2 Schultz, 2012, Chapter 7: description of MISCAN-lung, the Erasmus MC Lung Cancer microsimulation model for evaluating cancer control interventions, Risk Anal, 32, S85 Hazelton, 2012, Chapter 8: the FHCRC lung cancer model, Risk Anal, 32, S99 Helsingen, 2019, Colorectal cancer screening with faecal immunochemical testing, sigmoidoscopy or colonoscopy: a clinical practice guideline, BMJ, 367, l5515, 10.1136/bmj.l5515 Knudsen, 2021, Colorectal cancer screening: an updated modeling study for the US preventive services task force, JAMA, 325, 1998, 10.1001/jama.2021.5746 Sun, 2018, Cost-effectiveness of risk-based breast cancer screening programme, China, Bull World Health Organ, 96, 568, 10.2471/BLT.18.207944 Wong, 2007, Cost effectiveness of mammography screening for Chinese women, Cancer, 110, 885, 10.1002/cncr.22848 Xia, 2022, Measuring population-level cure patterns for cancer patients in the United States, Int J Cancer Xia, 2022, Cost-effectiveness of risk-stratified endoscopic screening for esophageal cancer in high-risk areas of China: a modeling study, Gastrointest Endosc, 95, 225, 10.1016/j.gie.2021.08.008 Xia, 2021, Estimated cost-effectiveness of endoscopic screening for upper gastrointestinal tract cancer in high-risk areas in China, JAMA Netw Open, 4, 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.21403 Carter, 2021, Cost-effectiveness of a serum biomarker test for risk-stratified liver ultrasound screening for hepatocellular carcinoma, Value Health, 24, 1454, 10.1016/j.jval.2021.04.1286 Su, 2022, Cost-effectiveness of universal screening for chronic hepatitis B virus infection in China: an economic evaluation, Lancet Glob Health, 10, e278, 10.1016/S2214-109X(21)00517-9 Fujiwara, 2018, Risk factors and prevention of hepatocellular carcinoma in the era of precision medicine, J Hepatol, 68, 526, 10.1016/j.jhep.2017.09.016 Villanueva, 2019, Hepatocellular carcinoma, N Engl J Med, 380, 1450, 10.1056/NEJMra1713263 Mook, 2011, Independent prognostic value of screen detection in invasive breast cancer, J Natl Cancer Inst, 103, 585, 10.1093/jnci/djr043 Lew, 2017, Long-term evaluation of benefits, harms, and cost-effectiveness of the National Bowel Cancer Screening Program in Australia: a modelling study, Lancet Public Health, 2, e331, 10.1016/S2468-2667(17)30105-6 Gierada, 2021, Survival following detection of stage I lung cancer by screening in the National Lung Screening Trial, Chest, 159, 862, 10.1016/j.chest.2020.08.2048 Gill, 2014, Screen-detected colorectal cancers are associated with an improved outcome compared with stage-matched interval cancers, Br J Cancer, 111, 2076, 10.1038/bjc.2014.498 Walbaum, 2021, Screen-detected breast cancer is associated with better prognosis and survival compared to self-detected/symptomatic cases in a Chilean cohort of female patients, Breast Cancer Res Treat, 189, 561, 10.1007/s10549-021-06317-1 Offman, 2022, Impact of Barrett oesophagus diagnoses and endoscopies on oesophageal cancer survival in the UK: a cohort study, Cancer Med, 11, 1160, 10.1002/cam4.4484 Luu, 2022, Effect of gastric cancer screening on long-term survival of gastric cancer patients: results of Korean national cancer screening program, J Gastroenterol, 57, 464, 10.1007/s00535-022-01878-4 Choi, 2019, Hepatocellular carcinoma screening is associated with increased survival of patients with cirrhosis, Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol, 17, 976, 10.1016/j.cgh.2018.10.031 Kong, 2009, Calibration of disease simulation model using an engineering approach, Value Health, 12, 521, 10.1111/j.1524-4733.2008.00484.x Pan, 2017, Cancer incidence and mortality: a cohort study in China, 2008-2013, Int J Cancer, 141, 1315, 10.1002/ijc.30825 Pan, 2017 Kakkoura, 2022, Dairy consumption and risks of total and site-specific cancers in Chinese adults: an 11-year prospective study of 0.5 million people, BMC Med, 20, 134, 10.1186/s12916-022-02330-3 Lei, 2021, Breast cancer incidence and mortality in women in China: temporal trends and projections to 2030, Cancer Biol Med, 18, 900, 10.20892/j.issn.2095-3941.2020.0523 Chen, 2015, Emerging tobacco-related cancer risks in China: a nationwide, prospective study of 0.5 million adults, Cancer, 121, 3097, 10.1002/cncr.29560 Thun, 2012, Stages of the cigarette epidemic on entering its second century, Tob Control, 21, 96, 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2011-050294 Eddy, 2012, Model transparency and validation: a report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force–7, Value Health, 15, 843, 10.1016/j.jval.2012.04.012 Rutter, 2010, An evidence-based microsimulation model for colorectal cancer: validation and application, Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev, 19, 1992, 10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-09-0954 Loeve, 2000, Endoscopic colorectal cancer screening: a cost-saving analysis, J Natl Cancer Inst, 92, 557, 10.1093/jnci/92.7.557 Wieszczy, 2021, Estimation of overdiagnosis in colorectal cancer screening with sigmoidoscopy and faecal occult blood testing: comparison of simulation models, BMJ Open, 11, 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-042158 Broder, 2021, Estimates of stage-specific preclinical sojourn time across 21 cancer types, J Clin Oncol, 39, 10.1200/JCO.2021.39.15_suppl.e18584 Li, 2022, Endoscopic surveillance for premalignant esophageal lesions: a community-based multicenter, prospective cohort study, Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol Choi, 2014, Endoscopic gastric cancer screening and surveillance in high-risk groups, Clin Endosc, 47, 497, 10.5946/ce.2014.47.6.497 Wang, 2019, Cost-effectiveness analysis of hepatitis B vaccine booster in children born to HBsAg-positive mothers in rural China, Int J Infect Dis, 78, 130, 10.1016/j.ijid.2018.08.024 Cucchetti, 2014, Estimation of lead-time bias and its impact on the outcome of surveillance for the early diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma, J Hepatol, 61, 333, 10.1016/j.jhep.2014.03.037 Chien, 2008, Mean sojourn time and effectiveness of mortality reduction for lung cancer screening with computed tomography, Int J Cancer, 122, 2594, 10.1002/ijc.23413 Yang, 2019, Analysis of the clinical characteristics of 8 081 primary lung cancer, Chin J Oncol, 41, 471