Tác động của Lãi suất Thực, Tỷ giá Hối đoái và Ổn định Chính trị đến Dòng vốn Đầu tư Trực tiếp Nước ngoài: Phân tích So sánh giữa các Quốc gia G7 và GCC

Springer Science and Business Media LLC - Tập 29 - Trang 569-603 - 2022
Faris Alshubiri1
1Department of Finance and Economics, College of Commerce and Business Administration, Dhofar University, Salalah, Oman

Tóm tắt

Phát triển tài chính bền vững đóng vai trò quan trọng trong kinh tế học thể chế mới và kinh tế học chi phí giao dịch. Điều này khẳng định vai trò quan trọng của lãi suất và tỷ giá hối đoái cùng với sự ổn định chính trị như những yếu tố quyết định đến chất lượng thể chế của một nền kinh tế. Nghiên cứu hiện tại nhằm mục đích điều tra ảnh hưởng của lãi suất thực, tỷ giá hối đoái và sự ổn định chính trị đến dòng vốn đầu tư trực tiếp nước ngoài (FDI) vào các quốc gia G7 và Hội đồng Hợp tác Vùng Vịnh (GCC) từ năm 2005 đến 2019. Các ước lượng của phương pháp bình phương khối tối thiểu điều chỉnh hoàn toàn và phương pháp bình phương động khối tối thiểu trong nghiên cứu này đã chỉ ra mối quan hệ tích cực có ý nghĩa lâu dài giữa lãi suất thực và dòng vốn FDI vào các quốc gia G7 và GCC. Thêm vào đó, có một mối quan hệ tiêu cực có ý nghĩa lâu dài giữa tỷ giá hối đoái và dòng vốn FDI vào các quốc gia G7; mối quan hệ này không có ý nghĩa ở các quốc gia GCC. Cũng có một mối quan hệ tiêu cực có ý nghĩa lâu dài giữa sự ổn định chính trị và dòng vốn FDI vào các quốc gia GCC; mối quan hệ này không có ý nghĩa ở các quốc gia G7. Phương pháp bình phương khối tối thiểu đã xác nhận kết quả của hai ước lượng trước đó đối với lãi suất thực và dòng vốn FDI vào các quốc gia G7. Dựa trên những phát hiện này, để tăng cường dòng vốn FDI, cần có những nỗ lực nhằm giảm lãi suất cho vay và thúc đẩy hình thành vốn và thương mại. Hơn nữa, nên để cho các lực lượng thị trường quy định lãi suất thực, và chính sách tiền tệ cần tập trung vào việc phát triển một tỷ giá hối đoái có hệ thống để thúc đẩy sự ổn định chính trị và tính bền vững của đầu tư nước ngoài tại các quốc gia phát triển và đang phát triển.

Từ khóa

#lãi suất thực #tỷ giá hối đoái #ổn định chính trị #đầu tư trực tiếp nước ngoài #G7 #GCC

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