The Effect on Fertility of the 2003–2011 War in Iraq

Population and Development Review - Tập 40 Số 4 - Trang 581-604 - 2014
Valeria Cetorelli1
1Ph.D. candidate in Demography, London School of Economics and Political Science.

Tóm tắt

This article provides the first detailed account of recent fertility trends in Iraq, with a particular focus on the changes resulting from the 2003–2011 war and the factors underlying them. The study is based on retrospective birth history data from the 2006 and 2011 Iraq Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (I‐MICS). Estimates from the two surveys indicate that total fertility remained stable from 1997 to 2010, at about 4.5 children per woman. However, examination of the age patterns of fertility reveals an abrupt shift in the timing of births, with adolescent fertility rising by over 30 percent soon after the onset of the war. A decomposition analysis shows that the rise in early childbearing is due to an increased prevalence of early marriage among less‐educated women. The prevalence of early marriage and childbearing among women with secondary or higher education is relatively low and has not increased after 2003.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

10.1007/978-90-481-3198-3_5

10.1007/BF03031967

10.1016/j.mefs.2013.04.006

10.1353/dem.2002.0013

Al-Kandari Yagoub Y., 2007, Fertility and its relationship with sociocultural factors in Kuwaiti society, Eastern Mediterranean Health Journal, 13, 1364, 10.26719/2007.13.6.1364

Arnold Fred, 1990, Assessment of the quality of birth history data in the Demographic and Health Surveys

10.1016/S0968-8080(08)31351-2

Baram Amatzia, 2000, The effects of Iraqi sanctions: Statistical pitfalls and responsibility, Middle East Journal, 54, 194

10.1111/j.0039-3665.2004.00028.x

Brown Lucy, 2006, Women in post-Saddam Iraq: One step forward and two steps back?, NWSA Journal, 18, 51

10.1016/S0140-6736(06)69491-9

Casterline John B., 2009, Fertility prospects in the Arab region

10.4054/DemRes.2012.26.13

Chesnais Jean-Claude, 1992, The Demographic Transition: Stages, Patterns and Economic Implications: A Longitudinal Study of Sixty-Seven Countries Covering the Period 1720–1984

10.1016/S0140-6736(06)67923-3

10.1016/S0140-6736(09)61967-X

10.1016/S0140-6736(04)17187-0

10.1080/00263209908701265

10.2307/1966762

10.2307/1533043

Garenne Michel, 2008, Fertility changes in Sub-Saharan Africa

Goldman Noreen Shea O.Rutstein andSusheelaSingh.1985. “Assessment of the quality of data in 41 WFS surveys: A comparative approach ” WFS Comparative Studies Cross National Summaries 44. Voorburg Netherlands ISI: WFS.

10.1136/bmj.327.7416.650

Gubhaju B. E.Jongstra andM.Raikoti.2013. “Below-replacement fertility of ethnic Indians in Fiji: A decomposition analysis of the components of changes in the total fertility rate ” paper presented at the International Population Conference of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population Busan 26–31 August.

Guha-Sapir DebaratiandOliviaD'Aoust.2010. “Demographic and health consequences of civil conflict ”World Development Report 2011 Background Paper 62030.

10.1126/science.1127397

10.1371/journal.pmed.1001533

10.1080/00324728.1947.10415527

Hill Kenneth, 2004, War, Humanitarian Crises, Population Displacement and Fertility: A Review of Evidence

Iraq Central Organisation for Statistics and Information Technology and Kurdistan Regional Statistics Office.2007. “Iraq Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2006 ” Final report.

Iraq Central Organisation for Statistics and Information Technology and Kurdistan Regional Statistics Office.2013. “Iraq Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2011 ” Final report.

10.1056/NEJMsa0707782

Jain Saranga, 2007, New insights on preventing child marriage: A global analysis of factors and programs

10.1080/741954311

10.1080/713779091

10.2307/2281213

Kurz Kathleen M.1997. “Health consequences of adolescent childbearing in developing countries.” Washington DC: International Center for Research on Women.

10.2307/2648112

Lindstrom David P., 2000, The demographic components of fertility decline in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: A decomposition analysis, Genus, 147

Machiyama Kazuyo, 2010, A re-examination of recent fertility declines in sub-Saharan Africa

Marckwardt Albert M., 1996, Accuracy of DHS‐II demographic data: Gains and losses in comparison with earlier surveys

Mathur Sanyukta MargaretGreene andAnjuMalhotra.2003. “Too young to wed: The lives rights and health of young married girls.” Washington DC: International Center for Research on Women.

10.2307/2648255

10.1007/978-90-481-2825-9_7

10.1111/j.0361-3666.2004.00255.x

Myers JulietteandRowanHarvey.2011. “Breaking vows: Early and forced marriage and girls' education ” Plan UK Report.

10.1016/S0277-9536(99)00253-1

10.1371/journal.pmed.1000090

10.2307/2173921

Pullum Thomas W., 2006, An assessment of age and date reporting in the DHS Surveys, 1985–2003

Pullum Thomas W., 2008, The Methods and Materials of Demography, 407

Pullum Thomas W. BrunoSchoumaker StanBecker andSarahE.K.Bradley.2013. “An assessment of DHS estimates of fertility and under-five mortality ” paper presented at the IUSSP International Population Conference Busan 26–31 August.

10.1177/0141076814530684

10.1111/j.1728-4457.2005.00052.x

10.1080/19485565.1978.9988329

10.2307/1972598

Roberts Les, 2001, Mortality in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo: Results from 11 mortality surveys

Roberts Les, 2003, Mortality in the Democratic Republic of Congo: Results from a nationwide survey

10.1016/S0140-6736(04)17441-2

Save the Children.2013. “Surviving the first day: State of the world's mothers 2013.” Westport.

Save the Children.2014. “Too young to wed: The growing problem of child marriage among Syrian girls in Jordan.” London.

Schoumaker Bruno, 2009, Stalls and reversals in fertility transitions in sub-Saharan Africa: Real or spurious

Schoumaker Bruno.2011. “Omissions of recent births in DHS birth histories: Measurement and determinants ” paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of American Washington DC 31 March–2 April.

10.4054/DemRes.2013.28.38

10.1016/S0140-6736(00)02404-1

Sullivan Jeremiah M.2008. “An assessment of the credibility of child mortality declines estimated from DHS mortality rates ” report submitted to UNICEF Working Draft Revision 1.

10.1007/s10680-005-6852-5

Tabutin Dominique, 2005, The demography of the Arab World and the Middle East from the 1950s to the 2000s: A survey of changes and a statistical assessment, Population, 60, 505, 10.3917/pope.505.0505

UNICEF.2005. “Early marriage: A harmful traditional practice: A statistical exploration.” New York.

UNICEF.2010. “Girls' education in Iraq.” New York.

UNICEF.2011. “Iraq: MENA gender equality profile: Status of girls and women in the Middle East and North Africa.” New York.

UNIFEM.2010. “Gender profile of the conflict in Iraq.” New York.

United Nations, 1987, Global Population Policy Database 1987

United Nations, 2001, The Population Policy Data Bank

United Nations, 2011, Global Population Policy Database 2011

United Nations, 2013, Adolescent fertility since the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo

United Nations.2014. “Iraq facts and figures.”http://iq.one.un.org/Facts-and-Figures.

10.2307/1524013

Winter J.M., 1992, The European Experience of Declining Fertility, 1850–1970: The Quiet Revolution, 291

10.4054/DemRes.2008.18.2

Yavuz Sutay.2005. “Fertility transition and the progression to third birth in Turkey ” MPIDR Working Paper 2005–2028.

10.4000/emam.495

10.1002/psp.480