The Covid-19 outbreak in Spain. A simple dynamics model, some lessons, and a theoretical framework for control response

Abbott Akaike, 1974, A new look at the statistical model identification, IEEE Trans. Automat. Contr., AC-, 19, 716, 10.1109/TAC.1974.1100705 Britton, 2019, Estimation in emerging epidemics: Biases and remedies, Journal of The Royal Society Interface, 16, 20180670, 10.1098/rsif.2018.0670 Caicedo-Ochoa, 2020, Effective Reproductive Number estimation for initial stage of COVID-19 pandemic in Latin American Countries, International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 95, 316, 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.04.069 Choi, 2020, Estimating the reproductive number and the outbreak size of COVID-19 in Korea, Epidemiology and Health, 42, 10.4178/epih.e2020011 Dimitrov Distante, 2020, Covid-19 outbreak progression in Italian regions: Approaching the peak by the end of March in northern Italy and first week of April in southern Italy, International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17, 3025, 10.3390/ijerph17093025 Dong, 2020, An interactive web-based dashboard to track COVID-19 in real time, The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 20, 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30120-1 Du, 2020, Serial interval of COVID-19 among publicly reported confirmed cases, Emerging Infectious Diseases, 26, 1341, 10.3201/eid2606.200357 Fang, 2020, Transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak and effectiveness of government interventions: A data-driven analysis, Journal of Medical Virology, 92, 645, 10.1002/jmv.25750 Ferguson Fine, 2003, The interval between successive cases of an infectious disease, American Journal of Epidemiology, 158, 1039, 10.1093/aje/kwg251 Guirao, 2020, Entender una epidemia. El coronavirus en España, situación y escenarios, Revista Española de Física, 34, 3 Guirao, 2020 Hopkins University 2020 Kermack, 1927, A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London A, 115, 700 Kucharski, 2020, Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: A mathematical modelling study, The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 20, 553, 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30144-4 Li, 2020, Early transmission dynamics in wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus infected pneumonia, New England Journal of Medicine, 382, 1199, 10.1056/NEJMoa2001316 Linton, 2020, incubation period and other epidemiological characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus infections with right truncation: A statistical analysis of publicly available case data, Journal of Clinical Medicine, 9, 538, 10.3390/jcm9020538 Lin, 2020, A conceptual model for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China with individual reaction and governmental action, International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 93, 211, 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.058 Lipsitch, 2003, Transmission dynamics and control of severe acute respiratory syndrome, Science, 300, 1966, 10.1126/science.1086616 Liu, 2020, The reproductive number of COVID-19 is higher compared to SARS coronavirus, Journal of Travel Medicine, 27, 1, 10.1093/jtm/taaa021 Ma, 2020, Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number, Infectious Disease Modelling, 5, 129, 10.1016/j.idm.2019.12.009 Nishiura, 2020, Serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections, International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 93, 284, 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.060 Nussbaumer-Streit, 2020, Quarantine alone or in combination with other public health measures to control COVID-19: A rapid review, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, 4 Park, 2020, A systematic review of COVID-19 epidemiology based on current evidence, Journal of Clinical Medicine, 9, 967, 10.3390/jcm9040967 Remuzzi, 2020, COVID-19 and Italy: What next?, Lancet, 395, 1225, 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30627-9 Ridenhour, 2014, Unraveling R0: Considerations for public health applications, American Journal of Public Health, 104, 32, 10.2105/AJPH.2013.301704 2020 Schwarz, 1978, Estimating the dimension of a model, Annals of Statistics, 6, 461, 10.1214/aos/1176344136 Svensson, 2007, A note on generation times in epidemic models, Mathematical Biosciences, 208, 300, 10.1016/j.mbs.2006.10.010 Tang, 2020, Estimation of the transmission risk of the 2019-nCoV and its implication for public health interventions, Journal of Clinical Medicine, 9, 462, 10.3390/jcm9020462 Wallinga, 2007, How generation intervals shape the relationship between growth rates and reproductive numbers, Proceedings Biological Sciences, 274, 599 Wang, 2020, A novel coronavirus outbreak of global health concern, Lancet, 395, 470, 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30185-9 Worldometers Wu, 2020, Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in wuhan, China: A modelling study, Lancet, 395, 689, 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30260-9 You, 2020, Estimation of the time-varying reproduction number of COVID-19 outbreak in China, International Journal of Hygiene and Environmental Health, 228, 113555, 10.1016/j.ijheh.2020.113555 Zhang, 2020, Evolving epidemiology and transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 outside hubei province, China: A descriptive and modelling study, The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 20, 793, 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30230-9 Zhao, 2020, Modeling the epidemic dynamics and control of COVID-19 outbreak in China, Quantitative Biology, 8, 11, 10.1007/s40484-020-0199-0