The Assessment of Global Surface Temperature Change from 1850s: The C-LSAT2.0 Ensemble and the CMST-Interim Datasets

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences - Tập 38 Số 5 - Trang 875-888 - 2021
Wenbin Sun1, Qingxiang Li1, Boyin Huang2, Jiayi Cheng1, Zhaoyang Song1, Haiyan Li1, Wenjie Dong1, Panmao Zhai3, Phil Jones4
1School of Atmospheric Sciences and Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere—Ocean System, Ministry of Education, Zhuhai, 519082, China
2National Centers for Environmental Information, NOAA, Asheville, NC, 28801, USA
3Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, CMA, Beijing 100081, China
4Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK

Tóm tắt

AbstractBased on C-LSAT2.0, using high- and low-frequency components reconstruction methods, combined with observation constraint masking, a reconstructed C-LSAT2.0 with 756 ensemble members from the 1850s to 2018 has been developed. These ensemble versions have been merged with the ERSSTv5 ensemble dataset, and an upgraded version of the CMST-Interim dataset with 5° × 5° resolution has been developed. The CMST-Interim dataset has significantly improved the coverage rate of global surface temperature data. After reconstruction, the data coverage before 1950 increased from 78%–81% of the original CMST to 81%–89%. The total coverage after 1955 reached about 93%, including more than 98% in the Northern Hemisphere and 81%–89% in the Southern Hemisphere. Through the reconstruction ensemble experiments with different parameters, a good basis is provided for more systematic uncertainty assessment of C-LSAT2.0 and CMST-Interim. In comparison with the original CMST, the global mean surface temperatures are estimated to be cooler in the second half of 19th century and warmer during the 21st century, which shows that the global warming trend is further amplified. The global warming trends are updated from 0.085 ± 0.004°C (10 yr)−1 and 0.128 ± 0.006°C (10 yr)−1 to 0.089 ± 0.004°C (10 yr)−1 and 0.137 ± 0.007°C (10 yr)−1, respectively, since the start and the second half of 20th century.

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences

Tập 38 Số 5

875-888

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