Survival determinants for Brazilian companies, 1996 to 2016
Tóm tắt
This paper examines the survival determinants of small- and medium-sized Brazilian companies from 1996 to 2016. A nonparametric survival model (Kaplan–Meier hazard function) and a semiparametric model (Cox proportional model) were used to study a period larger than the ones in previous studies. Applying these methods to a sample of 43,865 industrial firms, we analyzed survival rates by size, region and technological intensity of companies, in order to understand which elements influenced the survival of firms. Our main findings was that small companies had the lowest survival rates compared to medium and large companies, in all groups of sectors classified by technological intensity. However, for small companies, the highest survival rate of those classified as having medium technological intensity and those located in Northeast region of Brazil stand out. Both are interesting findings because, first, they go against common sense that assumes that participation, growth, and survival of small companies are linked to low technology sectors, and second, that survival is not linked to deep Brazilian regional inequalities. In addition, the semiparametric survival analysis model showed that the variables that best explain the greater probability of survival of Brazilian small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are presence in less concentrated markets, sectoral growth, productivity levels and presence in sectors with high technological intensity.
Tài liệu tham khảo
Añón-Higón, D., Manjón-Antolin, M., Mañez, J. A., & Sanchis-Llopis, J. A. (2015). Does R&D protect SMEs from the hardness of the cycle? Evidence from Spanish SMEs (1990–2009). International Entrepreneurship Management Journal, 11, 361–376. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11365-014-0329-0
Anyadike-Danes, M., & Hart, M. (2018). All grown up? The fate after 15 years of a quarter of a million UK firms born in 1998. Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 28, 1–45. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00191-017-0549-x
Audretsch, D. B. (1991). New-firm survival and the technological regime. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 73, 3–441. https://doi.org/10.2307/2109568
Barba Navaretti, G., Castellani, D., & Pieri, F. (2014). Age and firm growth: Evidence from three European countries. Small Business Economics, 43, 823–837. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-014-9564-6
Bates, T. (1995). A comparison of franchise and independent small business survival rates. Small Business Economics, 7, 5–377. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01302738
Birley, S., & Niktari, N. (1996). Reasons for business failure. Leadership & Organization Development Journal, 17, 2–52.
Botelho, M. R. A., Ferreira, J. B., Sousa, G. F., Carrijo, M. C., & Cericatto da Silva, A. (2021). Heterogeneidade estrutural: Uma análise segundo porte, setor e idade das empresas industriais brasileiras (2007–2016). Revista De Economia Contemporânea, 25, 2. https://doi.org/10.1590/198055272524
Boyer, T., & Blazy, R. (2014). Born to be alive? The survival of innovative and non-innovative French micro- start-ups. Small Business Economics, 42, 4–669. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-013-9522-8
Brazil. (2019a). Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Annual Survey of Industry (PIA-Enterprise). https://www.ibge.gov.br/estatisticas/economicas/industria/9042-pesquisa-industrial-anual.html?edicao=24731&t=sobre. Accessed 20 Sept 2019a.
Brazil. (2019b). Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Central Register of Enterprises (CEMPRE), https://biblioteca.ibge.gov.br/visualizacao/livros/liv100618.pdf. Accessed 20 Sept 2019b.
Brazil. (2019c). Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Annual Survey of Industry (PIA-Enterprise) [restricted and confidential data]. Avaiable in SAR/IBGE in jul.2019c.
Brazil. (2019d). Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Central Register of Enterprises [restricted and confidential data]. Available in SAR/IBGE in july 2019d.
Bresser-Pereira, L. C. (2008). The Dutch disease and its neutralization: A Ricardian approach. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, 28(1), 47–71. https://doi.org/10.1590/S0101-31572008000100003
Catela, EYS. (2018). Las micro, pequeñas y medias empresas brasileñas en el período reciente: pérdida de profundidad productiva y exportadora en un período de dinamismo de política industrial. In M. Diniz, G. Stumpo (Eds.), Mipymes en América Latina: Un frágil desempeño y nuevos desafíos para las políticas de fomento. Santiago: CEPAL.
Cefis, E., & Marsili, O. (2019). Good times, bad times: Innovation and survival over the business cycle. Industrial and Corporate Change, 28, 3–565. https://doi.org/10.1093/ICC/DTY072
Coad, A., Holm, J. R., Krafft, J., & Quatraro, F. (2018). Firm age and performance. Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 28, 1–1. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00191-017-0532-6
Conceição, O. C., Saraiva, M. V., Fochezatto, A., & França, M. T. A. (2018). Brazil’s Simplified tax Regime and the longevity of Brazilian manufacturing companies: A survival analysis based on RAIS microdata. Economia, 19, 2–164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econ.2017.10.003
Cowling, M., Liu, W., & Zhang, N. (2018). Did firm age, experience, and access to finance count? SME performance after the global financial crisis. Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 28, 1–77. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00191-017-0502-z
Daunfeldt, S. O., & Elert, N. (2013). When is Gibrat’s law a law? Small Business Economics, 41, 1–133. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-011-9404-x
Dunne, T., Roberts, M. J., & Samuelson, L. (1988). Patterns of firm entry and exit in U.S. manufacturing industries. The RAND Journal of Economics, 19, 4–495. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2555454
Ehrl, P. (2021). Live large or die young: Subsidized loans and firm survival in Brazil. Empirical Economics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-020-02003-1
Esteve-Pérez, S., & Mañez-Castillejo, J. A. (2008). The resource-based theory of the firm and firm survival. Small Business Economics, 30, 3–231. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-006-9011-4
Esteves, L. A. (2007). A note on Gibrat’s law, Gibrat’s legacy and firm growth: Evidence from Brazilian companies. Economics Bulletin, 12, 19–21.
Evans, D. S. (1987). The relationship between firm growth, size, and age: Estimates for 100 manufacturing industries. The Journal of Industrial Economics, 35, 4–567. https://doi.org/10.2307/2098588
Grazzi, M., & Moschella, D. (2018). Small, young and exporters: New evidence on the determinants of firm growth. Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 28, 1–125. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00191-017-0523-7
Haltiwanger, J., Jarmin, R. S., & Miranda, J. (2013). Who creates jobs? Small versus large versus young. The Review of Economics and Estatisitics, 95(2), 347–361. https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00288
Holmes, P., Hunt, A., & Stone, I. (2010). An analysis of new firm survival using a hazard function. Applied Economics, 42, 2–185. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840701579234
IBGE. (2008). Estatísticas do Cadastro Central de Empresas 2006. Demografia das empresas. Rio de Janeiro: IBG.
IBGE. (2010). Demografia das empresas: 2008. Coordenação de Metodologia das Estatísticas de Empresas, Cadastros e Classificações. Rio de Janeiro: IBGE.
IBGE. (2017). Demografia das empresas: 2015. Coordenação de Metodologia das Estatísticas de Empresas, Cadastros e Classificações. Rio de Janeiro: IBGE.
IBGE. (2022). SIDRA: Sistema IBGE de Recuperação Automática—Tabelas 5938 e 6579. https://sidra.ibge.gov.br/home/ipca15/brasil
Kaplan, E. L., & Meier, P. (1958). Nonparametric estimation from incomplete observations. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 53, 282–457. https://doi.org/10.2307/2281868
López-Garcia, P., & Puente, S. (2006). Business demography in Spain: Determinants of firm survival. Documentos de Trabajo n. 0608. Banco de España.
Mata, J., & Portugal, P. (2004). Patterns of entry, post-entry growth and survival: A comparison between domestic and foreign owned firms. Small Business Economics, 22, 283–298. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:SBEJ.0000022219.25772.ca
Nassif, A., & Castilho, M. R. (2020). Trade patterns in a globalised world: Brazil as a case of regressive specialization. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 44, 3–671. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bez069
Nassif, A., Feijó, C., & Araujo, E. (2015). Structural change and economic development: Is Brazil catching up or falling behind? Cambridge Journal of Economics, 39(5), 1307–1332. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/beu052
OECD (2005) Stan Indicators.
Palma, G. (2005). Cuatro fuentes de “desindustrialización” y un nuevo concepto de “síndrome holandés”. In J.A. Ocampo (Ed.), Más allá de las reformas: Dinámica estructural y vulnerabilidad macroeconómica. Bogotá: CEPAL/Alfaomega.
Pérez, S. E., Llopis, A. S., & Llopis, J. A. S. (2004). The determinants of survival of Spanish manufacturing firms. Review of Industrial Organization, 25, 3–251. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-004-1972-3
Resende, M., Cardoso, V., & Façanha, L. O. (2016). Determinants of survival of newly created SMEs in the Brazilian manufacturing industry: An econometric study. Empirical Economics, 50, 4–1255. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-015-0981-4
Rosenbusch, N., Brinckmann, J., & Bausch, A. (2011). Is innovation always beneficial? A meta-analysis of the relationship between innovation and performance in SMEs. Journal of Business Venturing, 26, 4–441. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusvent.2009.12.002
Santarelli, E., Klomp, L., & Thurik, A.R. (2006). Gibrat’s law: An overview of the empirical literature. In: E. Santarelli (Ed.), Entrepreneurship, growth, and innovation. International Studies in Entrepreneurship (vol. 12, pp. 41–73). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/0-387-32314-7_3
Sarmento, E., & Nunes, A. (2011). Análise comparativa de sobrevivência empresarial: o caso da região norte de Portugal. Revista Portuguesa de Estudos Regionais, 25/26, 1–17. https://bibliotecadigital.ipb.pt/handle/10198/4741
SEBRAE. (2016). Sobrevivência das empresas no Brasil.
Segarra, A., & Callejón, M. (2002). New firms’ survival and market turbulence: New evidence from Spain. Review of Industrial Organization, 20, 1–1. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1013309928700
World Bank. (2022). The World Bank Data. https://data.worldbank.org/country/brazil