Structured Expert Elicitation About <i>Listeria monocytogenes</i> Cross‐Contamination in the Environment of Retail Deli Operations in the United States

Risk Analysis - Tập 32 Số 7 - Trang 1139-1156 - 2012
Karin Hoelzer1, Haley F. Oliver1,2, Larry R. Kohl3, J. Rogers Hollingsworth3, Martin T. Wells4, Martin Wiedmann1
1Department of Food Science, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA.
2Department of Food Science, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA
3Food Marketing Institute, Arlington, VA, USA.
4Department of Statistical Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA.

Tóm tắt

Listeria monocytogenes is among the foodborne pathogens with the highest death toll in the United States. Ready‐to‐eat foods contaminated at retail are an important source of infection. Environmental sites in retail deli operations can be contaminated. However, commonly contaminated sites are unlikely to come into direct contact with food and the public health relevance of environmental contamination has remained unclear. To identify environmental sites that may pose a considerable cross‐contamination risk, to elucidate potential transmission pathways, and to identify knowledge gaps, we performed a structured expert elicitation of 41 experts from state regulatory agencies and the food retail industry with practical experience in retail deli operations. Following the “Delphi” method, the elicitation was performed in three consecutive steps: questionnaire, review and discussion of results, second questionnaire. Hands and gloves were identified as important potential contamination sources. However, bacterial transfers to and from hands or gloves represented a major data gap. Experts agreed about transfer probabilities from cutting boards, scales, deli cases, and deli preparation sinks to product, and about transfer probabilities from floor drains, walk‐in cooler floors, and knife racks to food contact surfaces. Comparison of experts' opinions to observational data revealed a tendency among experts with certain demographic characteristics and professional opinions to overestimate prevalence. Experts’ votes clearly clustered into separate groups not defined by place of employment, even though industry experts may have been somewhat overrepresented in one cluster. Overall, our study demonstrates the value and caveats of expert elicitation to identify data gaps and prioritize research efforts.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

10.3201/eid1701.P11101

Food and Drug Administration (FDA), 2003, Quantitative assessment of the relative risk to public health from foodborne Listeria monocytogenes among selected categories of ready‐to‐eat (RTE) foods

Endrikat S, 2011, A comparative risk assessment for Listeria monocytogenes in prepackaged versus retail‐sliced deli meat, Journal of Food Protection, 73, 612, 10.4315/0362-028X-73.4.612

10.4315/0362-028X-72.11.2337

10.4315/0362-028X.JFP-10-567

10.4315/0362-028X-73.10.1849

Anonymous. Available athttp://www.glogerm.com Accessed on December 19 2010.

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), 2009, Expert Elicitation Task Force White Paper

U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commision (NUREG), 2005, Estimating Loss‐of‐Coolant Accident (LOCA) Frequencies Through the Elicitation Process

TurnerIY BarrientosFA Mehr AF.Towards risk based design (RBD) of space exploration missions: A review of RBD practices and research trends at NASA. Conference paper submitted to ASME 2005 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference Long Beach CA September 24–28 2005.

10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01269.x

Martin SA, 1995, Assessing the risk of microbial pathogens: Application of a judgment‐encoding methodology, Journal of Food Protection, 195, 289, 10.4315/0362-028X-58.3.289

10.1111/j.0272-4332.2005.00571.x

10.4315/0362-028X-70.5.1220

10.1089/fpd.2010.0582

Cook RM., 1991, Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science, 10.1093/oso/9780195064650.001.0001

Brown BB., 1986, ASTME Vectors

Helmer O., 1967, Analysis for the Future: The Delphi Method

Food Marketing Institute. Available at:http://www.fmi.org/ Accessed on July 2010.

Vose D, 2008, Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide

Armitage P, 1999, Encyclopedia of Biostatistics

10.1201/b15851

10.1017/CBO9780511809477

10.1017/CBO9780511840609

10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00399.x

10.4315/0362-028X-64.6.845

10.4315/0362-028X-70.9.2172

10.4315/0362-028X-72.1.202

10.1067/mic.2003.81

Snelling AM, 1991, The survival of Listeria monocytogenes on fingertips and factors affecting elimination of the organism by hand washing and disinfection, Journal of Food Protection, 54, 343, 10.4315/0362-028X-54.5.343

10.4315/0362-028X-73.10.1937

10.1089/fpd.2007.0049

10.1128/AEM.69.12.7188-7193.2003

10.1111/j.1750-3841.2008.00833.x

10.4315/0362-028X-69.3.619

10.1016/j.ijfoodmicro.2007.06.017

10.4315/0362-028X-64.1.72

10.4315/0362-028X-65.6.1045

10.1046/j.1365-2672.2002.01734.x

10.1046/j.1365-2672.2001.01347.x

10.1128/AEM.69.12.7188-7193.2003

10.1128/AEM.00688-07

10.1016/S0168-1605(02)00540-8

10.1016/j.jhin.2009.01.022

Thông tin
Thông tin xuất bản

Risk Analysis

Tập 32 Số 7

1139-1156

Thông tin tác giả