Stranded fossil-fuel assets translate to major losses for investors in advanced economies

Nature Climate Change - Tập 12 Số 6 - Trang 532-538 - 2022
Gregor Semieniuk1, Philip B. Holden2, Jean-François Mercure3, Pablo de Benavides y Salas4, Hector Pollitt4, Katharine Jobson5, Pim Vercoulen6, Unnada Chewpreecha6, Neil R. Edwards4, Jorge E. Viñuales4
1Political Economy Research Institute and Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, USA
2Environment, Earth and Ecosystems, The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK
3Global Systems Institute, Department of Geography, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
4Cambridge Centre for Environment, Energy and Natural Resources Governance (C-EENRG), University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
5Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, London, UK
6Cambridge Econometrics, Cambridge, UK

Tóm tắt

AbstractThe distribution of ownership of transition risk associated with stranded fossil-fuel assets remains poorly understood. We calculate that global stranded assets as present value of future lost profits in the upstream oil and gas sector exceed US$1 trillion under plausible changes in expectations about the effects of climate policy. We trace the equity risk ownership from 43,439 oil and gas production assets through a global equity network of 1.8 million companies to their ultimate owners. Most of the market risk falls on private investors, overwhelmingly in OECD countries, including substantial exposure through pension funds and financial markets. The ownership distribution reveals an international net transfer of more than 15% of global stranded asset risk to OECD-based investors. Rich country stakeholders therefore have a major stake in how the transition in oil and gas production is managed, as ongoing supporters of the fossil-fuel economy and potentially exposed owners of stranded assets.

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Nature Climate Change

Tập 12 Số 6

532-538

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