Động lực không gian-thời gian: nhu cầu về một phương pháp tiếp cận đổi mới trong quản lý rủi ro thiên tai trên núi

Springer Science and Business Media LLC - Tập 68 - Trang 1217-1241 - 2012
Sven Fuchs1, Margreth Keiler2, Sergey Sokratov3,4, Alexander Shnyparkov3,4
1Institute of Mountain Risk Engineering, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria
2Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
3Natural Risk Assessment Laboratory, Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russian Federation
4Research Laboratory of Snow Avalanches and Debris Flows, Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russian Federation

Tóm tắt

Bài viết bắt đầu với cái nhìn tổng quan về những tổn thất do thiên tai trên núi gây ra ở Liên bang Nga và các dãy núi Alps châu Âu, đặt ra câu hỏi tại sao vẫn còn một số lượng lớn sự kiện được ghi nhận - mặc dù có những nỗ lực đáng kể trong việc giảm thiểu nguy cơ và rủi ro. Lý do chính cho sự mâu thuẫn này nằm ở việc thiếu một phương pháp tiếp cận dựa trên rủi ro có động lực, và điều này cho thấy những động lực này có nguồn gốc khác nhau: thứ nhất, việc bỏ qua biến đổi khí hậu và động lực hệ thống, việc phát triển các kịch bản nguy cơ dựa trên phương pháp tĩnh của các sự kiện thiết kế. Thứ hai, do sự phát triển kinh tế và động lực dân số, các yếu tố gặp rủi ro đang bị tác động bởi các thay đổi không gian và thời gian. Những vấn đề này được thảo luận liên quan đến các yêu cầu về thời gian và không gian. Kết quả cho thấy rủi ro có tính chất động lực cả trong dài hạn và ngắn hạn, điều này phải được thừa nhận trong khái niệm về rủi ro nếu khái niệm này hướng tới phát triển bền vững các khu vực núi. Một mô hình khái niệm được trình bày có thể được sử dụng cho việc đánh giá rủi ro động và thông qua các chiến lược quản lý khác nhau, mô hình này có thể được chuyển đổi thành thực tiễn. Hơn nữa, sự liên kết và tương tác giữa nguy cơ và rủi ro được đề cập để nâng cao hiệu quả phòng ngừa, mức độ bảo vệ và mức độ chuẩn bị.

Từ khóa

#rủi ro thiên tai #quản lý rủi ro #động lực không gian-thời gian #phát triển bền vững #chiến lược quản lý

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