Spatiotemporal climate and vegetation greenness changes and their nexus for Dhidhessa River Basin, Ethiopia

Springer Science and Business Media LLC - Tập 8 Số 1 - 2019
Gizachew Kabite Wedajo1, Misgana K. Muleta2, Berhan Gessesse3, Sifan A. Koriche4
1Department of Earth Sciences, Wollega University, P.O.Box 395, Nekemte, Ethiopia
2Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo, USA
3Department of Remote Sensing, Entoto Observatory Research Center, Ethiopia Space Science Technology Institute, P.O.Box 33679, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
4Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK

Tóm tắt

Abstract Background Understanding spatiotemporal climate and vegetation changes and their nexus is key for designing climate change adaptation strategies at a local scale. However, such a study is lacking in many basins of Ethiopia. The objectives of this study were (i) to analyze temperature, rainfall and vegetation greenness trends and (ii) determine the spatial relationship of climate variables and vegetation greenness, characterized using Normalized Difference in Vegetation Index (NDVI), for the Dhidhessa River Basin (DRB). Quality checked high spatial resolution satellite datasets were used for the study. Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope method were used for the trend analysis. The spatial relationship between climate change and NDVI was analyzed using geographically weighted regression (GWR) technique. Results According to the study, past and future climate trend analysis generally showed wetting and warming for the DRB where the degree of trends varies for the different time and spatial scales. A seasonal shift in rainfall was also observed for the basin. These findings informed that there will be a negative impact on rain-fed agriculture and water availability in the basin. Besides, NDVI trends analysis generally showed greening for most climatic zones for the annual and main rainy season timescales. However, no NDVI trends were observed in all timescales for cool sub-humid, tepid humid and warm humid climatic zones. The increasing NDVI trends could be attributed to agroforestry practices but do not necessarily indicate improved forest coverage for the basin. The change in NDVI was positively correlated to rainfall (r2 = 0.62) and negatively correlated to the minimum (r2 = 0.58) and maximum (r2 = 0.45) temperature. The study revealed a strong interaction between the climate variables and vegetation greenness for the basin that further influences the biophysical processes of the land surface like the hydrologic responses of a basin. Conclusion The study concluded that the trend in climate and vegetation greenness varies spatiotemporally for the DRB. Besides, the climate change and its strong relationship with vegetation greenness observed in this study will further affect the biophysical and environmental processes in the study area; mostly negatively on agricultural and water resource sectors. Thus, this study provides helpful information to device climate change adaptation strategies at a local scale.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Abtew W, Melesse AM, Dessalegne T (2009) El Niño Southern oscillation link to the Blue Nile river basin hydrology. Hydrol Process 23:3653–3660

Addisu S, Selassie YG, Fissha G, Gedif B (2015) Time series trends analysis of temperature and rainfall in lake Tana, Sub-basin Ethiopia. Environ Syst Res 4:25

Asfaw A, Simane B, Hassen A, Bantider A (2018) Variability and time series trend analysis of rainfall and temperature in northcentral Ethiopia: a case study in Woleka sub-basin. Weather Clim Extremes 19:29–41

Berhane F, Zaitchik B, Dezfuli A (2014) Subseasonal analysis of rainfall variability in the Blue Nile River basin. J Clim 27(1):325–344

Beyene T, Lettenmaier DP, Kabat P (2010) Hydrologic impacts of climate change on the Nile River Basin: implications of the 2007 IPCC scenarios. Clim Change 100:433–461

Bhattacharjee PS, Zaitchik BF (2015) Perspectives on CMIP5 model performance in the Nile River headwaters regions. Int J Climatol 35:4262–4275

Brown ME, Funk Ch, Pedreros D, Korecha D, Lemma M, Rowland J, Williams E, Verdin J (2017) A climate trend analysis of Ethiopia: examining sub-seasonal climate impacts on crops and pasture conditions. Clim Change 142:169–182

Burn DH (1994) Hydrologic effects of climatic change in West Central. Can J Hydrol 160:53–70

Chapungu L, Nhamo L (2016) An assessment of the impact of climate change on plant species richness through an analysis of the normalized difference water index (NDWI) in Mutirikwi Sub-catchment, Zimbabwe South African. J Geomat 5(2):244–268

Conway D (2000) The climate and hydrology of the upper Blue Nile. Geogr J 166(1):49–62

Conway D (2005) From headwater tributaries to international river: observing and adapting to climate variability and change in the Nile basin. Glob Environ Change 15(2):99–114

Conway D, Schipper ELF (2011) Adaptation to climate in Africa: challenges and opportunities identified from Ethiopia. Glob Environ Change 21:227–237

Conway D, Mould C, Bewket W (2004) Over one century of rainfall and temperature observations in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Int J Climatol 24:77–91

Dale VH (1997) The relationship between land-use change and climate change. Ecol Appl 7(3):753–769

Deressa TT, Hassan RM (2009) Economic impact of climate on crop production in Ethiopia: evidence from cross-section measures. J Afr Econ 18(4):529–554

Elshamy ME, Seierstad IA, Sorteberg A (2009) Impacts of climate change on Blue Nile flows using bias-corrected GCM scenarios. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 13:551–565

Foody GM (2003) Geographical weighting as a further refinement to regression modelling: an example focused on the NDVI-rainfall relationship. Remote Sens Environ 88:283–293

Foody GM (2004) Spatial nonstationary and scale-dependency in the relationship between species richness and environmental determinants for the sub-Saharan endemic avifauna. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 13:315–320

Fotheringham AS, Brunsdon C, Charlton M (2002) Geographically weighted regression: the analysis of spatially varying relationships. Wiley, Chichester

Gebre H, Kindie T, Girma M, Belay K (2013) Trend and variability of rainfall in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia: analysis of meteorological data and farmers’ perception. Acad J Agric Res 1(6):88–100

Gebremicael TG, Mohamed YA, Betrie GD, van der Zaag P, Teferi E (2013) Trend analysis of runoff and sediment fluxes in the upper Blue Nile basin: a combined analysis of statistical tests, physically-based models and land use maps. J Hydrol 482:57–68

Getahun YS, Shefine BG (2015) Analysis of climate variability (ENSO) and vegetation dynamics in Gojjam, Ethiopia. J Earth Sci Clim Change 6(10):320

Haile AT, Rientjes T (2015) Evaluation of regional climate model simulation of rainfall over the upper Blue Nile basin. Atmos Res 161–162:57–64

He Y, Lee E, Warner TA (2017) A time series of annual land use and land cover maps of China from 1982 to 2013 generated using AVHRR GIMM NDVI3g data. Remote Sens Environ. 199:201–217

IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007 the physical science basis. In: Solomon SD et al (eds) Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

IPCC (2013) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 1535

Ji L, Peters AJ (2004) A spatial regression procedure for evaluating the relationship between AVHRR-NDVI and climate in the Northern Great Plains. Int J Remote Sens 25:297–311

Jiang Z, Huete AR, Chen J, Chen Y, Li J, Yan G, Zhang X (2006) Analysis of NDVI and scaled difference vegetation index retrievals of vegetation fraction. Remote Sens Environ 101:366–376

Jury MR, Funk C (2012) Climatic trends over Ethiopia: regional signals and drivers. Int J Climatol 33:1924–1935

Keredin TS, Annisa M, Surendra B, Solomon A (2013) Long year comparative climate change trend analysis in terms of temperature, coastal Andhra Pradesh, India. Refer J Res Sci Technol 2(7):2277-1174

Kim U, Kaluarachchi JJ (2009) Climate change impacts on water resources in the upper Blue Nile River Basin Ethiopia. J Am Water Resour Assoc 45(6):1361–1378

Knutti R, Sedlacek J (2012) Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections. Nat Clim Change. https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE1716

Loranty M, Davydov SP, Kropp H, Alexander HD, Mack M, Natali SM, Zimov NS (2018) Vegetation indices do not capture forest cover variation in Upper Siberian Larch Forests. Remote Sens 10:1686

McMichael AJ, Woodruff RE, Hales S (2006) Climate change and human health: present and future risks. Lancet 367:859–869

Mekonnen DF, Disse M (2018) Analyzing the future climate change of upper Blue Nile River basin using statistical downscaling techniques. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 22:2391–2408

Mekonnen DF, Duan Z, Rientjes T, Disse M (2018) Analysis of combined and isolated effects of land-use and land cover changes and climate change on the upper Blue Nile basin’s streamflow. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 22:6187–6207

Mellander P-E, Gebrehiwot SG, Gardenas AI, Bewket W, Bishop K (2013) Summer rains and dry seasons in the upper Blue Nile Basin: the predictability of half a century of past and future spatiotemporal patterns. PLoS ONE 8(7):e68461

Mengistu D, Bewket W, Lal R (2014) Recent spatiotemporal temperature and rainfall variability and trends over the upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. Int J Climatol 34:2278–2292

Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) (1998) Agro-ecological zones of Ethiopia. German Agency for Technical Cooperation (GTZ)

Musau J, Patil S, Sheffield J, Marshall M (2018) Vegetation dynamics and responses to climate anomalies in East Africa. Earth Syst Dyn Discuss. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-123

Perović V, Kadović R, Djurdjević V, Braunović S, Čakmak D, Mitrović M, Pavlović P (2019) Effects of changes in climate and land use on soil erosion: a case study of the Vranjska Valley, Serbia. Reg Environ Change 19(4):1035–1046

Philip A, Augistine Y, Abindaw B (2014) Impact of climate variability on smallholder households and indigenous coping strategies in Bonga district. Int J Dev Res 4(3):693–699

Propastin P, Kappas M, Erasmi S (2008) Application of geographically weighted regression to investigate the impact of scale on prediction uncertainty by modelling relationship between vegetation and climate. Int J Spat Data Infrastruct Res 3:73–94

Regan PM, Kim H, Maiden E (2018) Climate change, adaptation, and agricultural output. Reg Environ Change 19(1):113–123

Rosell S (2011) Regional perspective on rainfall change and variability in the central highlands of Ethiopia 1978–2007. Appl Geogr 31:329–338

Samy A, Oliver C, Valeriano S, Negm A (2015) Variability of hydrological modeling of the Blue Nile. Int J Environ Chem Ecol Geol Geophys Eng 9(3):225–229

Schlenker W, Lobell DB (2010) Robust negative impacts of climate change on African agriculture. Environ Res Lett 5(1):014010

Segele ZT, Lamb PJ (2005) Characterization and variability of Kiremt rainy season over Ethiopia. Meteorol Atmos Phys 89:153–180

Seleshi Y, Zanke U (2004) Recent changes in rainfall and rainy days in Ethiopia. Int J Climatol 24(8):973–983

Sen PK (1968) Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s Tau. J Am Stat Assoc 63(324):1379–1389

Setegn SG, Rayner D, Melesse AM, Dargahi B, Srinivasan R (2011) Impact of climate change on the hydroclimatology of Lake Tana Basin Ethiopia. Water Resour Res 47:W04511

Tanzeeba S, Gan TY (2012) Potential impact of climate change on the water availability of South Saskatchewn River Basin. Clim Change 112:355–385

Teferi E, Uhlenbrook S, Bewket W (2015) Inter-annual and seasonal trends of vegetation condition in the upper Blue Nile (Abay) Basin: dual-scale time series analysis. Earth Syst Dyn 6:617–636

Tekleab S, Mohamed Y, Uhlenbrook S (2013) Hydro-climatic trends in the Abay/Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia. Phys Chem Earth 61:32–42

Tena BA, Srinivasa RGVR, Yerramsetty A (2016) WEAP modeling of surface water resources allocation in Didessa Sub-Basin, West Ethiopia. Sustain Water Resour Manag 2:55–70

Tesemma ZK, Mohamed YA, Steenhuis TS (2010) Trends in rainfall and runoff in the Blue Nile Basin: 1964–2003. Hydrol Process 24:3747–3758

Tian F, Fensholt R, Verbesselt J, Grogan K, Horion S, Wang Y (2015) Evaluating temporal consistency of long-term global NDVI datasets for trend analysis. Remote Sens Environ 163:326–340

Tufa et al (2018) Enhancing national climate services (ENACTS) for development in Africa. Clim Dev 10(7):664–672

Usman U, Yelwa SA, Gulumbe SU, Danbaba A (2013) Modeling relationship between NDVI and climatic variables using geographically weighted regression. J Math Sci Appl 1(2):24–28

Vincent RT, Lemann GZ, Alemtsehay TS, Tibebu KN, Hans H (2018) Effects of climate change on water resources in the upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia. Heliyon 4(2018):e00771

Viviroli et al (2011) Climate change and mountain water resources: overview and recommendations for research, management and policy. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 15:471–504

Weldegerima TM, Zeleke TT, Birhanu BS, Zaitchik BF, Fetene ZA (2018) Analysis of rainfall trends and its relationship with SST signals in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia. Adv Meteorol. https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/5869010

Worku G, Terefi E, Bantider A, Dile YT (2018) Observed changes in extremes of daily rainfall and temperature in Jemma sub-basin, upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. Theor Appl Climatol 135(3–4):839–854

Worqlul AW, Taddele YD, Ayana EK, Jeong J, Adem AA, Gerik Th (2018) Impact of climate change on streamflow hydrology in headwater catchments of the upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. Water 10:120

Yin H, Udelhoven Th, Fensholt R, Pflugmacher D, Hostert P (2012) How normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) trends from advanced very high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR) and Systeme Probatoire d’Observation de la Terre Vegetation (SPOT VGT) time series differ in agricultural areas: an inner Mongolian case study. Remote Sens 4:3364–3389

Yohannes O (2008) Water resources and inter-riparian relations in the Nile Basin: the search for an integrative discourse. Suny Press, Albany, p 270

Zhao N, Yang Y, Zhou X (2010) Application of geographically weighted regression in estimating the effect of climate and site conditions on vegetation distribution in Haihe Catchment. China Plant Ecol 209:349–359

Zhao Z, Gao J, Wang Liu J, Li Sh (2015) Exploring spatially variable relationships between NDVI and climatic factors in a transition zone using geographically weighted egression. Theor Appl Climatol 120:507–519

Thông tin
Thông tin xuất bản

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Tập 8 Số 1

Thông tin tác giả