Spatial impacts of fiscal stimulus policies during the 2009 global financial crisis in Indonesia
Tóm tắt
In response to the 2008/2009 global financial crisis (GFC), many developing countries, including Indonesia, launched fiscal stimulus packages (FSP). These FSPs typically consist of several sophisticated fiscal policies that may not necessarily complement each other. While the impact of these policies at the aggregate country level in developed countries has been widely discussed, the spatial impact of these policies within developing countries is less understood. Utilizing an inter-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, this paper aims to assess and understand the short- and long-term economic impacts of these stimulus policies using Indonesia as a case study. This paper, hence, provides a quantitative ex-post assessment of FSPs typically implemented during the 2009 GFC by developing economies. Overall, results, indicate that fiscal stimulus had a positive impact on aggregate demand and on poverty prevention, principally via stimulating private consumption. Corporate income tax cuts have the largest economic impact in the long-run, and cash transfers are the most useful policy tool for alleviating poverty. An FSP, however, could have an uneven spatial distributional effect on output across regions, particularly in the short-term.
Tài liệu tham khảo
Adelman I, Robinson S (1988) Macroeconomic adjustment and income distribution: alternative models applied to two economies. J Dev Econ 29(1):1–22. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3878(88)90069-7
Adelman I, Yeldan E (2000) The minimal conditions for a financial crisis: a multiregional intertemporal CGE model of the Asian crisis. World Dev 28(6):1087–1100. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0305-750X(00)00014-0
Basri MC, Rahardja S (2010) The Indonesian economy amidst the global crisis: good policy or good luck. ASEAN Econ Bull 27(1):77–97. https://www.jstor.org/stable/41317110
Bazzi S, Sumarto S, Suryahadi A (2012) Evaluating Indonesia’s unconditional cash transfer, final report-international initiative for impact evaluation. https://www.business.uwa.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/2053084/Bazzi,-Sumarto,-Suryahadi-3ie-Report-March-2012.pdf
Corden WM (2010) The theory of fiscal stimulus: how will a debt-financing stimulus affect the future? Oxf Rev Econ Policy 26(1):38–47. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grq001
Corden WM (2011) Ambulance economics: the pros and cons of fiscal stimuli. Open Econ Rev 22(2):235–245. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-011-9199-z
Dervis KJ, de Melo J, Robinson S (1982) General equilibrium models for development policy. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. https://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/386191468765592396/pdf/multi-page.pdf
Diao X, Zhang Y, Chen KZ (2012) The global recession and China’s stimulus package: a general equilibrium assessment of country level impacts. China Econ Rev 23(1):1–17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2011.05.005
Dixon PB, Parmenter BR, Sutton J, Vincent DP (1982) ORANI: a multisectoral model of the Australian economy. North-Holland, Amsterdam
Giesecke JA, Schilling C (2010) The economic impact of the New Zealand fiscal stimulus package. NZ Econ Papers 44(3):231–257. https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2010.522162
Hemming R, Kell M, Mahfouz S (2002) The effectiveness of fiscal policy in stimulating economic activity—a review literature. IMF working paper no. 02/208. International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2002/wp02208.pdf
Hur S-K, Mallick S, Park D (2010) Fiscal policy and crowding out in developing Asia. ADB Economics working paper series no. 222. Asian Development Bank, Manila. https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/28271/economics-wp222.pdf
IMF (International Monetary Fund) (2010) The world economic outlook: rebalancing growth. International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2016/12/31/Rebalancing-Growth
IMF (International Monetary Fund) (2011) The world economic outlook: slowing growth, rising risks. International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2016/12/31/Slowing-Growth-Rising-Risks
Johansen L (1960) A multi-sectoral study of economic growth. North-Holland Publishing Company, Amsterdam
Kim E, Kim K (2002) Impact of regional development strategies on growth and equity of Korea: a multiregional CGE model. Ann Reg Sci 36:165–180. https://doi.org/10.1007/s001680100071
Lambert S, Schneider H, Suwa A (1991) Adjustment and equity in Cote de’Ivoire: 1980–1986. World Dev 19(11):1563–1576. https://doi.org/10.1016/0305-750X(91)90006-4
Leigh A (2012) How much did the 2009 Australian fiscal stimulus boost demand? Evidence from household-reported spending effects. BE J Macroecon 12(1):1–22. https://doi.org/10.1515/1935-1690.2035
Lofgren H, Harris RL, Robinson S (2002) A Standard Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Models in GAMS. Microcomputers in Policy Research No. 5, IFPRI, Washington, DC. https://www.ifpri.org/publication/standard-computable-general-equilibrium-cge-model-gams-0
Liew LH (1981) A multi-regional multi-sectoral general equilibrium model of the Australian economy. PhD Thesis, Monash University, Melbourne
Ministry of Finance (2009) Mitigating global crisis impact through fiscal stimulus program. Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia, Jakarta
Patunru AA, Zetha E (2010) Indonesia’s savior: fiscal, monetary, of luck? Public Policy Rev 6(4):721–740
Resosudarmo BP, Wuryanto LE, Hewings GJD, Saunders L (1999) Decentralization and income distribution in the inter-regional Indonesian economy. In: Hewings GJD, Sonis M, Madden M, Kimura Y (eds) Advances in spatial sciences: understanding and interpreting economic structure. Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, pp 297–315. https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783540660453
Resosudarmo BP, Nurdianto DA, Hartono D (2009) The Indonesian inter-regional social accounting matrix for fiscal decentralization analysis. J Indones Econ Bus 24(2):145–162. https://jurnal.ugm.ac.id/jieb/article/view/6321
Resosudarmo BP, Yusuf AA, Hartono D, Nudianto DA (2011) Regional Economic Modelling for Indonesia: Implementation of IRSAINDONESIA5. J of Indones Econ Bus 26(3):287–309. https://jurnal.ugm.ac.id/jieb/article/view/6259
Robinson S (1991) Macroeconomics, financial variables, and computable general equilibrium models. World Dev 29(11):1509–1525. https://doi.org/10.1016/0305-750X(91)90003-Z
Shapiro M, Slemrod J (2003) Did the 2001 tax rebate stimulate spending? Evidence from taxpayer surveys. Tax Policy Econ 17:83–109. https://www.jstor.org/stable/20140505
Thorbecke E (1991) Adjustment, growth and income distribution in Indonesia. World Dev 19(11):1595–1614. https://doi.org/10.1016/0305-750X(91)90008-6
Tokunaga S, Resosudarmo BP, Wuryanto LE, Dung NT (2003) An inter- regional CGE model to assess the impacts of tariff reduction and fiscal decentralization on the regional economy. Stud Reg Sci 33(2):1–25
Yusuf AA, Resosudarmo BP (2015) On the distributional impact of a carbon tax in developing countries: the case of Indonesia. Environ Econ Policy Stud 17(1):131–156. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10018-014-0093-y
Zhou S, Shi M, Li N, Yuan Y (2011) Effects of Chinese economic stimulus package on economic growth in the post-crisis China. Econ Res Int 2011:1–11. https://doi.org/10.1155/2011/492325