Spatial decision‐support tools to guide restoration and seed‐sourcing in the Desert Southwest
Tóm tắt
Altered disturbance regimes and shifting climates have increased the need for large‐scale restoration treatments across the western United States. Seed‐sourcing remains a considerable challenge for revegetation efforts, particularly on public lands where policy favors the use of native, locally sourced plant material to avoid maladaptation. An important area of emphasis for public agencies has been the development of spatial tools to guide selection of genetically appropriate seed. When genetic information is not available, current seed transfer guidelines stipulate use of climate‐based or provisional seed transfer zones, which serve as a proxy for local adaptation by representing climate gradients to which plants are commonly adapted. Despite this guidance, little emphasis has been placed on identifying best practices for deriving provisional seed zones or on incorporating predictions from future climate. We describe a flexible, multivariate procedure for deriving such zones that incorporates a broad range of climatic characteristics while accounting for covariation among climate variables. With this approach, we derive provisional seed zones for four regions in the Desert Southwest (the Mojave Desert, Sonoran Desert, Colorado Plateau, and Southern Great Basin). To facilitate future‐resilient restoration designs, we project each zone into its relative position in the future climate based on near‐term,
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