Spatial Patterns and Temporal Variability of Drought in Western Iran

Agrawala S, Barlow M, Cullen H, Lyon B (2001) The drought and humanitarian crisis in Central and Southwest Asia: a climate perspective, IRI special report N. 01-11. International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Palisades, p 24

Bonaccorso B, Bordi I, Cancelliere A, Rossi G, Sutera A (2003) Spatial variability of drought: an analysis of the SPI in Sicily. Water Resour Manag 17:273–296

Bordi I, Sutera A (2001) Fifty years of precipitation: some spatially remote teleconnnections. Water Resour Manag 15:247–280

Bordi I, Sutera A (2002) An analysis of drought in Italy in the last fifty years. Nuovo Cimento C 25C:185–206

Bordi I, Fraedrich K, Jiang J-M, Sutera A (2004a) Spatio-temporal variability of dry and wet periods in eastern China. Theor Appl Climatol 79:81–91

Bordi I, Fraedrich K, Gerstengarbe F-W, Werner PC, Sutera A (2004b) Potential predictability of dry and wet periods: Sicily and Elbe-Basin (Germany). Theor Appl Climatol 77:125–138

Bordi I, Fraedrich K, Petitta M, Sutera A (2006) Large-scale assessment of drought variability based on NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 re-analyses. Water Resour Manag 20:899–915

Dinpashoh Y, Fakheri-Fard A, Moghaddam M, Jahanbakhsh S, Mirnia M (2004) Selection of variables for the purpose of regionalization of Iran’s precipitation climate using multivariate methods. J Hydrol 297:109–123

Domroes M, Kaviani M, Schaefer D (1998) An analysis of regional and intra-annual precipitation variability over Iran using multivariate statistical methods. Theor Appl Climatol 61:151–159

Guttman NB (1998) Comparing the Palmer drought index and the standardized precipitation index. J Am Water Resour Assoc 34(1):113–121

Guttman NB (1999) Accepting the standardised precipitation index: a calculation algorithm. J Am Water Resour Assn 35:311–322

Hayes MJ, Svoboda MD, Wilhite DA, Vanyarkho OV (1999) Monitoring the 1996 drought using the standardized precipitation index. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 80:429–438

Heim RR Jr (2002) A review of twentieth-century drought indices used in the United States. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 83:1149–1165

Helsel DR, Hirsch RM (1992) Statistical methods in water resources. Elsevier, Amsterdam

Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Leetmaa A, Reynolds B, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo KC, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Roy J, Joseph D (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 77:437–471

Keyantash J, Dracup JA (2002) The quantification of drought: an evaluation of drought indices. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 83:1167–1180

Lana X, Serra C, Burgueño A (2001) Patterns of monthly rainfall shortage and excess in terms of the standardized precipitation index for Catalonia (NE Spain). Int J Climatol 21:1669–1691

Lloyd-Hughes B, Saunders BA (2002) A drought climatology for Europe. Int J Climatol 22:1571–1592

McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Kleist J (1993) The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In: Proceedings of the 8th conference on applied climatology, 17–22 January, Anaheim, CA, Am Meteor Soc, Boston, MA, 179–184

Mishra AK, Desai VR (2005) Drought forecasting using stochastic models. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 19:326–339

Moreira EE, Coelho CA, Paulo AA, Pereira LS, Mexia JT (2008) SPI-based drought category prediction using log linear models. J Hydrol doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.03.002

Morid S, Smakhtin V, Moghaddasi M (2006) Comparison of seven meteorological indices for drought monitoring in Iran. Int J Climatol 26:971–985

Nazemosadat MJ, Cordery I (2000) On the relationships between ENSO and autumn rainfall in Iran. Int J Climatol 20:47–61

Nazemosadat MJ, Ghasemi AR (2004) Quantifying the ENSO-related shifts in the intensity and probability of drought and wet periods in Iran. J Climate 17:4005–4018

North GR, Bell TL, Cahalan RF (1982) Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions. Mon Wea Rev 110:699–706

Palmer WC (1965) Meteorological drought, tech. report no. 45. U.S. Department of Commerce Weather Bureau Research, Washington, D.C.

Paulo AA, Pereira LS (2006) Drought concepts and characterization: comparing drought indices applied at local and regional scales. Water Int 31:37–49

Paulo AA, Pereira LS (2007) Prediction of SPI drought class transitions using Markov chains. Water Resour Manag 21:1813–1827

Paulo AA, Pereira LS, Matias PG (2003) Analysis of local and regional droughts in southern Portugal using the theory of runs and the standardized precipitation index. In: Rossi G, Cancelliere A, Pereira LS, Oweis T, Shatanawi M, Zairi A (eds) Tools for drought mitigation in Mediterranean regions. Kluwer, Dordrecht, pp 55–78

Paulo AA, Ferreira E, Coelho C, Pereira LS (2005) Drought class transition analysis through Markov and log linear models, an approach to early warning. Agric Water Manag 77:59–81

Peel MC, McMahon TA, Finlayson BL (2002) Variability of annual precipitation and its relationship to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. J Climate 15:545–551

Pereira LS, Cordery I, Iacovides I (2002) Coping with water scarcity, UNESCO IHP VI, technical documents in hydrology, no. 58. UNESCO, Paris

Raziei T, Azizi G (2007) A precipitation based regionalization in western Iran using principal component analysis and cluster analysis. Iran-Water Resour Res 3:62–65

Rencher AC (1998) Multivariate statistical inference and applications. Wiley, Hoboken, p 559

Richman MB (1986) Rotation of principal components. J Climatol 6:293–335

Ropelewski CF, Halpert MS (1996) Quantifying southern oscillation–precipitation relationships. J Climate 9:1043–1059

Soltani S, Modarres R (2006) Classification of spatio-temporal pattern of rainfall in Iran using a hierarchical and divisive cluster analysis. J Spat Hydro 6:1–12

Szalai S, Szinell C (2000) Comparison of two drought indices for drought monitoring in Hungary—a case study. In: Vogt JV, Somma F (eds) Drought and drought mitigation in Europe, 161–166. Kluwer, Dordrecht, p 325

Tsakiris G, Vangelis H (2004) Towards a drought watch system based on spatial SPI. Water Resour Manag 18:1–12

Vicente-Serrano SM (2005) El Niño and La Niña influence on droughts at different timescales in the Iberian Peninsula. Water Resour Res 41:W12415, doi: 10.1029/2004WR003908

Vicente-Serrano SM, González-Hidalgo JC, De Luis M, Raventós J (2004) Drought patterns in the Mediterranean area: the Valencia region (eastern Spain). Clim Res 26:5–15

Vogel RM, Stedinger JR (1985) Minimum variance streamflow record augmentation procedure. Water Resour Res 21:715–723

von Storch H, Zwiers FW (1999) Statistical analysis in climate research. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 484

Wilhite DA (1997) Responding to drought: common threads from the past, visions for the future. J Am Water Resour Assoc 33:951–959