Social contact patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic in 21 European countries – evidence from a two-year study

BMC Infectious Diseases
Kerry LM Wong1, Amy Gimma1, Pietro Coletti2, Daniela Paolotti, Michele Tizzani, Ciro Cattuto, Andrea Schmidt, Gerald Gredinger, Sophie Stumpfl, Joaquin Baruch, Tanya Melillo, Henrieta Hudeckova, Jana Zibolenová, Zuzana Chladná, Magdalena Rosińska, Marta Niedźwiedzka-Stadnik, Krista Fischer, Sigrid Vorobjov, Hanna Sõnajalg, Christian L. Althaus, Nicola Low, Martina L. Reichmuth, Kari Auranen, Markku Nurhonen, Goranka Petrović, Zvjezdana Lovrić Makarić, Sónia Namorado, Constantino Caetano, Ana João Santos, Gergely Röst, Beatrix Oroszi, Màrton Karsai, Mario Fafangel, Petra Klepac, Natalija Kranjec, Cristina Vilaplana, Jordi Casabona, Christel Faes2, Philippe Beutels3,4, Niel Hens3,2, Veronika K. Jaeger5, André Karch5, Helen Johnson6, W. John Edmunds1, Christopher I Jarvis1
1Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
2Data Science Institute, I-Biostat, Hasselt University, Diepenbeek, Belgium
3Centre for Health Economics Research and Modelling Infectious Diseases, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Institute, University of Antwerp, Wilrijk, Belgium
4School of Public Health and Community Medicine, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
5Institute of Epidemiology and Social Medicine, University of Muenster, Münster, Germany
6European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Solna, Sweden

Tóm tắt

Abstract Background Most countries have enacted some restrictions to reduce social contacts to slow down disease transmission during the COVID-19 pandemic. For nearly two years, individuals likely also adopted new behaviours to avoid pathogen exposure based on personal circumstances. We aimed to understand the way in which different factors affect social contacts – a critical step to improving future pandemic responses. Methods The analysis was based on repeated cross-sectional contact survey data collected in a standardized international study from 21 European countries between March 2020 and March 2022. We calculated the mean daily contacts reported using a clustered bootstrap by country and by settings (at home, at work, or in other settings). Where data were available, contact rates during the study period were compared with rates recorded prior to the pandemic. We fitted censored individual-level generalized additive mixed models to examine the effects of various factors on the number of social contacts. Results The survey recorded 463,336 observations from 96,456 participants. In all countries where comparison data were available, contact rates over the previous two years were substantially lower than those seen prior to the pandemic (approximately from over 10 to < 5), predominantly due to fewer contacts outside the home. Government restrictions imposed immediate effect on contacts, and these effects lingered after the restrictions were lifted. Across countries, the relationships between national policy, individual perceptions, or personal circumstances determining contacts varied. Conclusions Our study, coordinated at the regional level, provides important insights into the understanding of the factors associated with social contacts to support future infectious disease outbreak responses.

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