Nội dung được dịch bởi AI, chỉ mang tính chất tham khảo
Chính Sách Đầu Tư Xã Hội và Sinh Nở Qua 20 Quốc Gia: Phân Tích Dài Hạn và Cấp Vi mô
Tóm tắt
Nghiên cứu này phân tích ảnh hưởng của các chính sách gia đình đối với việc sinh con đầu lòng và sinh con thứ hai của phụ nữ tại 20 quốc gia trong giai đoạn từ 1995 đến 2007. Các quốc gia phúc lợi đã chuyển sang các chính sách đầu tư xã hội, tuy nhiên nghiên cứu về chính sách gia đình và tỷ lệ sinh vẫn chưa xem xét rõ ràng sự phát triển này. Chúng tôi phân biệt giữa hỗ trợ định hướng đầu tư xã hội và hỗ trợ thụ động mà các gia đình có thể nhận được khi có con. Nghiên cứu cũng xem xét những thay đổi trong các chính sách theo thời gian. Những chỉ số này được kết hợp với lịch sử sinh sản do dữ liệu cá nhân hài hòa cung cấp, và chúng tôi sử dụng các mô hình xác suất tuyến tính cố định, có điều kiện theo thời gian. Chúng tôi phát hiện thấy rằng hỗ trợ định hướng đầu tư xã hội có mối liên hệ với khả năng sinh con đầu lòng cao hơn, ngược lại với hỗ trợ gia đình thụ động. Khả năng sinh con đầu lòng đặc biệt giảm khi hỗ trợ gia đình thụ động tăng lên đối với phụ nữ trên 30 tuổi, điều này cho thấy khả năng gia tăng tình trạng vô sinh. Hỗ trợ định hướng đầu tư xã hội có liên quan tích cực đến việc sinh con đầu lòng và sinh con thứ hai, đặc biệt là đối với những phụ nữ có trình độ học vấn thấp, và không có mối quan hệ nào với việc sinh con đối với phụ nữ có trình độ học vấn cao, điều này đảo ngược các giả định về hiệu ứng Matthew đối với chính sách đầu tư xã hội. Hỗ trợ thụ động có mối liên hệ tiêu cực với việc sinh con thứ hai đối với những phụ nữ có trình độ học vấn sau trung học và những người đang học. Các chính sách gia đình hỗ trợ việc làm của phụ nữ và sự gắn kết với thị trường lao động có mối liên kết tích cực với việc mở rộng gia đình và những chính sách này giảm thiểu sự khác biệt về giáo dục trong việc sinh con.
Từ khóa
#chính sách đầu tư xã hội #sinh nở #phụ nữ #tỷ lệ sinh #hỗ trợ gia đình #giáo dụcTài liệu tham khảo
Adsera, A. (2011). Where are the babies? Labor market conditions and fertility in Europe. European Journal of Population, 27(1), 1–32. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-010-9222-x
Aisenbrey, S., Evertsson, M., & Grunow, D. (2009). Is there a career penalty for mothers’ time out? A comparison of Germany, Sweden and the United States. Social Forces, 88(2), 573–605. https://doi.org/10.1353/sof.0.0252
Amuedo-Dorantes, C., & Kimmel, J. (2005). The motherhood wage gap for women in the united states: The importance of college and fertility delay? Review of Economics of the Household, 3(1), 17–48. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11150-004-0978-9
Bäckman, O., & Ferrarini, T. (2010). Combating child poverty? A multilevel assessment of family policy institutions and child poverty in 21 old and new welfare states. Journal of Social Policy, 39(2), 275–296. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0047279409990456
Becker, G. S. (1981). A treatise on the family. Harvard University Press.
Begall, K., & Mills, M. (2011). The impact of subjective work control, job strain and work-family conflict on fertility intentions: A European comparison. European Journal of Population, 27(4), 433–456. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-011-9244-z
Beramendi, P., Hausermann, S., Kitschelt, H., & Kriesi, H. (Eds.). (2015). The politics of advanced capitalism. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781316163245
Billingsley, S. (2010). The post-communist fertility puzzle. Population Research and Policy Review, 29(2), 193–231. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-009-9136-7
Billingsley, S., & Duntava, A. (2017). Putting the pieces together: 40 years of fertility trends across 19 post-socialist countries. Post-Soviet Affairs. https://doi.org/10.1080/1060586X.2017.1293393
Billingsley, S., & Ferrarini, T. (2014). Family policy and fertility intentions in 21 European countries. Journal of Marriage and Family, 76(2), 428–445. https://doi.org/10.1111/jomf.12097
Bongaarts, J., & Sobotka, T. (2012). A demographic explanation for the recent rise in European fertility. Population and Development Review, 38(1), 83–120. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2012.00473.x
Bonoli, G. (2005). The politics of the new social policies: Providing coverage against new social risks in mature welfare states. Policy & Politics, 33(3), 431–449. https://doi.org/10.1332/0305573054325765
Bonoli, G., Cantillon, B., & Lancker, W. V. (2017). Social investment and the Matthew effect. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198790488.003.0005
Brewster, K. L., & Rindfuss, R. R. (2000). Fertility and women’s employment in industrialized nations. Annual Review of Sociology, 26(1), 271–296. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.soc.26.1.271
Budig, M. J., Misra, J., & Boeckmann, I. (2012). The motherhood penalty in cross-national perspective: The importance of work-family policies and cultural attitudes. Social Politics: International Studies in Gender, State & Society, 19(2), 163–193. https://doi.org/10.1093/sp/jxs006
Cantillon, B., & Van Lancker, W. (2013). Three shortcomings of the social investment perspective. Social Policy and Society, 12(4), 553–564. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1474746413000080
Castles, F. G. (2003). The world turned upside down: Below replacement fertility, changing preferences and family-friendly public policy in 21 OECD countries. Journal of European Social Policy, 13(3), 209–227. https://doi.org/10.1177/09589287030133001
Daly, M. (2011). What adult worker model? A critical look at recent social policy reform in Europe from a gender and family perspective. Social Politics: International Studies in Gender, State & Society, 18(1), 1–23. https://doi.org/10.1093/sp/jxr002
Duntava, A., & Billingsley, S. (2013). Changing Life Course Regimes (CLiCR) Data: Harmonization Manual (Stockholm Research Reports in Demography 2013: 17). Department of Sociology, Demography Unit.
Duvander, A.-Z., Lappegård, T., & Andersson, G. (2010). Family policy and fertility: Fathers’ and mothers’ use of parental leave and continued childbearing in Norway and Sweden. Journal of European Social Policy, 20(1), 45–57. https://doi.org/10.1177/0958928709352541
Ermisch, J. F. (2003). An economic analysis of the family. Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctt1dr35fd
Esping-Andersen, G. (Ed.). (2002). Why we need a new welfare state. Oxford University Press.
Esping-Andersen, G., & Billari, F. C. (2015). Re-theorizing family demographics. Population and Development Review, 41(1), 1–31. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2015.00024.x
Ferrarini, T. (2003). Parental leave institutions in eighteen post-war welfare states. Stockholm University.
Ferrarini, T., Nelson, K., Korpi, W., & Palme, J. (2013). Social citizenship rights and social insurance replacement rate validity: Pitfalls and possibilities. Journal of European Public Policy, 20(9), 1251–1266. https://doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2013.822907
Frejka, T. (2008). Overview chapter 5: Determinants of family formation and childbearing during the societal transition in central and eastern Europe. Demographic Research, 19, 139–170. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2008.19.7
Gauthier, A. H. (2007). The impact of family policies on fertility in industrialized countries: A review of the literature. Population Research and Policy Review, 26(3), 323–346. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-007-9033-x
Gauthier, A. H., & Hatzius, J. (1997). Family benefits and fertility: An econometric analysis. Population Studies, 51(3), 295–306. https://doi.org/10.1080/0032472031000150066
Giesselmann, M., & Schmidt-Catran, A. W. (2020). Interactions in fixed effects regression models. Sociological Methods & Research. https://doi.org/10.1177/0049124120914934
Goldscheider, F., Bernhardt, E., & Lappegård, T. (2015). The gender revolution: A framework for understanding changing family and demographic behavior. Population and Development Review, 41(2), 207–239. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2015.00045.x
Goldstein, J. R., Sobotka, T., & Jasilioniene, A. (2009). The end of “lowest-low” fertility? Population and Development Review, 35(4), 663–699. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2009.00304.x
Hemerijck, A. (Ed.). (2017). The uses of social investment (First edition). Oxford University Press.
Hernes, H. M. (1987). Welfare state and women’s power. Essays in state feminism. Norwegian University Press.
Hoem, Jan M. (2008). Overview chapter 8: The impact of public policies on European fertility. Demographic Research, 19, 249–260. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2008.19.10
Hook, J. L. (2006). Care in context: Men’s unpaid work in 20 countries, 1965–2003. American Sociological Review, 71(4), 639–660. https://doi.org/10.1177/000312240607100406
Hook, J. L. (2010). Gender inequality in the welfare state: Sex segregation in housework, 1965–2003. American Journal of Sociology, 115(5), 1480–1523. https://doi.org/10.1086/651384
Hotz, J. V., Klerman, J. A., & Willis, R. J. (1997). The economics of fertility in developed countries. In M. R. Rosenzweig & O. Stark (Eds.), Handbook of population and family economics. Elsevier.
Jenson, J. (2009). Lost in translation: The social investment perspective and gender equality. Social Politics: International Studies in Gender, State & Society, 16(4), 446–483. https://doi.org/10.1093/sp/jxp019
Jenson, J. (2012). Redesigning citizenship regimes after neoliberalism: Moving towards social investment. In N. Morel, B. Palier, & J. Palme (Eds.), Towards a social investment welfare state? Ideas, policies and challenges (pp. 61–87). Policy Press.
Kalwij, A. (2010). The impact of family policy expenditure on fertility in Western Europe. Demography, 47(2), 503–519. https://doi.org/10.1353/dem.0.0104
Korpi, W. (2000). Faces of inequality: Gender, class, and patterns of inequalities in different types of welfare states. Social Politics: International Studies in Gender, State & Society, 7(2), 127–191. https://doi.org/10.1093/sp/7.2.127
Korpi, W., Ferrarini, T., & Englund, S. (2013). Women’s opportunities under different family policy constellations: Gender, class, and inequality tradeoffs in Western countries re-examined. Social Politics: International Studies in Gender, State & Society, 20(1), 1–40. https://doi.org/10.1093/sp/jxs028
Lohmann, H., & Zagel, H. (2016). Family policy in comparative perspective: The concepts and measurement of familization and defamilization. Journal of European Social Policy, 26(1), 48–65. https://doi.org/10.1177/0958928715621712
Luci-Greulich, A., & Thévenon, O. (2013). The impact of family policies on fertility trends in developed countries. European Journal of Population, 29(4), 387–416. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-013-9295-4
McDonald, P. (2000). Gender equity in theories of fertility transition. Population and Development Review, 26(3), 427–439.
McDonald, P. (2013). Societal foundations for explaining fertility: Gender equity. Demographic Research, 28, 981–994. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2013.28.34
Meyers, M. K., & Gornick, J. C. (2003). Public or private responsibility? Early childhood education and care, inequality, and the welfare state. Journal of Comparative Family Studies, 34(3), 379–411.
Miller, A. R. (2011). The effects of motherhood timing on career path. Journal of Population Economics, 24(3), 1071–1100. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-009-0296-x
Mood, C. (2010). Logistic regression: Why we cannot do what we think we can do, and what we can do about it. European Sociological Review, 26(1), 67–82. https://doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcp006
Morel, N., Palier, B., & Palme, J. (Eds.). (2012). Towards a social investment welfare state? Ideas, policies and challenges. Policy Press.
Morgan, K. J. (2012). Beyond the welfare state as we knew it? In N. Morel, B. Palier, & J. Palme (Eds.), Towards a social investment welfare state? Ideas, policies and challenges. Policy Press.
Morgan, K. J., & Zippel, K. (2003). Paid to care: The origins and effects of care leave policies in western Europe. Social Politics: International Studies in Gender, State & Society, 10(1), 49–85. https://doi.org/10.1093/sp/jxg004
Myrskylä, M., Goldstein, J. R., & Cheng, Y. A. (2013). New cohort fertility forecasts for the developed world: Rises, falls, and reversals. Population and Development Review, 39(1), 31–56. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00572.x
Neyer, G. (2003). Family policies and low fertility in western Europe. Journal of Population and Social Security (Population). Supplement to, 1, 46–93.
Neyer, G. (2005). Family policies in Western Europe fertility policies at the intersection of gender, employment, and care policies. Österreichische Zeitschrift für Politikwissenschaft, 34(1), 91–102.
Neyer, G., & Andersson, G. (2008). Consequences of family policies on childbearing behavior: Effects or artifacts? Population and Development Review, 34(4), 699–724. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2008.00246.x
Nieuwenhuis, R., Need, A., & der Kolk, H. V. (2017). Is there such a thing as too long childcare leave? International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy, 37(1/2), 2–15. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJSSP-07-2015-0074
OECD. (2011). Doing better for families. OECD Publishing. http://www.oecd.org/social/soc/doingbetterforfamilies.htm
Parolin, Z., & Van Lancker, W. (2021). What a social investment ‘litmus test’ must address: A response to Plavgo and Hemerijck. Journal of European Social Policy. https://doi.org/10.1177/09589287211012974
Perelli-Harris, B., Kreyenfeld, M., & Kubisch, K. (2011) Harmonized histories manual for the preparation of comparative fertility and union histories (MPIDR Working Paper WP-2010–011) Max-Planck Institute for Demographic Research.
Pettit, B., & Hook, J. (2005). The structure of women’s employment in comparative perspective. Social Forces, 84(2), 779–801. https://doi.org/10.1353/sof.2006.0029
Plavgo, I., & Hemerijck, A. (2021). The social investment litmus test: Family formation, employment and poverty. Journal of European Social Policy, 31(3), 282–296. https://doi.org/10.1177/0958928720950627
Rindfuss, R. R., Guilkey, D. K., Morgan, S. P., & Kravdal, Ø. (2010). Child-care availability and fertility in Norway. Population and Development Review, 36(4), 725–748. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2010.00355.x
Rostgaard, T. (2004). Family support policy in Central and Eastern Europe—A decade and a half of transition [UNESCO Early Childhood and Family Policy Series Volume 8]. United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO).
Rovny, A. E. (2011). Welfare state policy determinants of fertility level: A comparative analysis. Journal of European Social Policy, 21(4), 335–347. https://doi.org/10.1177/0958928711412221
Sainsbury, D. (1996). Gender equality and welfare states. Cambridge University Press.
Saraceno, C. (2011). Childcare needs and childcare policies: A multidimensional issue. Current Sociology, 59(1), 78–96. https://doi.org/10.1177/0011392110385971
Saraceno, C. (2015). A critical look to the social investment approach from a gender perspective. Social Politics: International Studies in Gender, State & Society, 22(2), 257–269. https://doi.org/10.1093/sp/jxv008
Saraceno, C. (2017). Family relationships and gender equality in the social investment discourse. In A. Hemerijck (Ed.), The uses of social investment. Oxford University Press.
Sleebos, J. (2003). Low fertility rates in OECD countries: Facts and policy responses (OECD Labour Market and Social Policy Occasional Papers No. 15; OECD Labour Market and Social Policy Occasional Papers, Vol. 15). https://doi.org/10.1787/568477207883
SPIN. (2019). The Social Policy Indicators database. Institute for Social Research, Stockholm University. http://www.sofi.su.se/spin/
Szelewa, D., & Polakowski, M. P. (2008). Who cares? Changing patterns of childcare in Central and Eastern Europe. Journal of European Social Policy, 18(2), 115–131. https://doi.org/10.1177/0958928707087589
Thévenon, O., & Solaz, A. (2013) Labour market effects of parental leave policies in OECD countries (OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers No 141)
Wesolowski, K., & Ferrarini, T. (2015). Family policies and fertility—Examining the link between family policy institutions and fertility rates in 33 countries 1995–2010. In Wesolowski K., Maybe baby? Reproductive behaviour, fertility intentions, and family policies in post-communist countries, with a special focus on Ukraine. Acta Universitatis Upsaliensis
Wesolowski, K., Billingsley, S., & Neyer, G. (2020). Disentangling the complexity of family policies: SPIN data with an application to Lithuania and Sweden, 1995–2015. Demographic Research, 43, 1235–1262. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2020.43.42
Ziefle, A., & Gangl, M. (2014). Do women respond to changes in family policy? A quasi-experimental study of the duration of mothers’ employment interruptions in Germany. European Sociological Review, 30(5), 562–581. https://doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcu056