Simulating urban expansion and scenario prediction using a cellular automata urban growth model, SLEUTH, through a case study of Karaj City, Iran

Springer Science and Business Media LLC - Tập 30 Số 4 - Trang 591-611 - 2015
Yousef Sakieh1, Bahman Jabbarian Amiri2, Afshin Danekar2, J Feghhi3, Sadeq Dezhkam2
1Department of the Environment, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources Gorgan, Golestan, Iran
2Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
3Department of Forestry, Faculty of Natural Resource, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

Tóm tắt

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Al-Ahmadi, K., Heppenstall, A. J., Hogg, J., & See, L. (2009). A fuzzy cellular automata urban growth model (FCAUGM) for the City of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Part 1: Model structure and validation. Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy, 2, 65–83.

Al-ahmadi, K., See, L., Heppenstall, A., & Hogg, J. (2008). Calibration of a fuzzy cellular automata model of urban dynamics in Saudi Arabia. Ecological Complexity, 6, 80–101.

Al-shalabi, L., Billa, L., Pradhan, B., Mansor, S., & Al-sharif, A. A. A. (2012). Modelling urban growth evolution and land-use changes using GIS based cellular automata and SLEUTH models: The case of Sana’a metropolitan city, Yemen. Earth Sciences, 70, 425–437.

Asgarian, A., Amiri, B. J., & Sakieh, Y. (2014). Assessing the effect of green cover spatial patterns on urban land surface temperature using landscape metrics approach. Urban Ecosystems,. doi: 10.1007/s11252-014-0387-7 .

Bagheri, M., Sulaiman, W. N. A., & Vaghefi, N. (2012). Application of geographic information system technique and analytical hierarchy process model for land-use suitability analysis on coastal area. Coastal Conservation, 17, 1–10.

Barredo, J. I., Demicheli, L., Lavalle, C., Kasanko, M., & McCormick, N. (2004). Modelling future urban scenarios in developing countries: An application case study in Lagos, Nigeria. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 32, 65–84.

Barredo, J. I., Kasanko, N., McCormick, M., & Lavalle, C. (2003). Modelling dynamic spatial process: Simulation of urban future scenarios through cellular automata. Landscape and Urban Planning, 64, 145–160.

Bathrellos, G. D., Gaki-Papanastassiou, K., Skilodimou, H. D., Papanastassiou, D., & Chousianitis, K. G. (2012). Potential suitability for urban planning and industry development using natural hazard maps and geological–geomorphological parameters. Environmental Earth Sciences, 66, 537–548.

Bathrellos, G. D., Skilodimou, H. D., Kelepertsis, A., Alexakis, D., Chrisanthaki, I., & Archonti, D. (2008). Environmental research of groundwater in the urban and suburban areas of Attica region, Greece. Environmental Geology, 56, 11–18.

Batty, M. (1989). Urban modeling and planning: Reflections, retrodictions and prescriptions. In B. Macmillan (Ed.), Remodeling geography (pp. 147–169). Oxford: Basil Blackwell.

Batty, M., & Longley, A. (1986). The fractal simulation of urban structure. Environment and Planning A, 18, 1143–1179.

Batty, M., & Longley, P. (1994). Fractal cities: A geometry of form and function. London: Academic Press.

Batty, M., & Xie, Y. (1994). From cells to cities. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 21, S31–S38.

Batty, M., & Xie, Y. (1997). Possible urban automata. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 24, 175–192.

Bihamta, N., Soffianian, A., Fakheran, S., & Gholamalifard, M. (2014). Using the SLEUTH Urban Growth Model to Simulate Future Urban Expansion of the Isfahan Metropolitan Area, Iran. Journal of Indian Society of Remote Sensing. doi: 10.1007/s12524-014-0402-8 .

Brown, L. R. (2001). Eco-economy: Building an economy for the earth. New York: W.W. Norton.

Candau, J. T. (2002). Temporal calibration sensitivity of the SLEUTH urban growth model. M.Sc Theses. Santa Barbara University, 116 pp.

Cecchini, A., & Rinaldi, E. (1999). The multi-cellular automaton: A tool to build more sophisticated models. A theoretical foundation and a practical implementation. In: Rizzi P (Ed.), Computer in urban planning and urban management 6th international conference. Milano, Franco Angeli.

Chaudhuri, G., & Clarke, K. C. (2012). How does land use policy modify urban growth? A case study of Italo-Slovenian border. Land Use Science, 8, 443–465.

Chaudhuri, G., & Clarke, K. C. (2013). Temporal accuracy in urban growth forecasting: A study using the SLEUTH model. Transactions in GIS, 2, 302–320.

Clarke, K. C., & Gaydos, L. J. (1998). Loose-coupling a cellular automata model and GIS: Long-term urban growth prediction for San Francisco and Washing- ton/Baltimore. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 12, 699–714.

Clarke, K. C., Hoppen, S., & Gaydos, L. (1997). A self-modifying cellular automaton model of historical urbanization in the San Francisco Bay area. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 24, 247–261.

Congalton, R. G. (1991). A review of assessing the accuracy of classifications of remotely sensed data. Remote Sensing of Environment, 37, 35–46.

Couclelis, H. (1985). Cellular worlds: A framework for modeling micro-macro dynamics. Environment and Planning A, 17, 585–596.

Couclelis, H. (1989). Macrostructure and micro behavior in metropolitan area. Environment and Planning A, 16, 141–154.

Dai, F. C., Lee, C. F., & Zhang, X. H. (2001). GIS based geo-environmental evaluation for urban land-use planning: A case study. Engineering Geology, 61, 257–271.

Dezhkam, S., Amiri, B. J., Darvishsefat, A. A., & Sakieh, Y. (2014). Simulating the urban growth dimensions and scenario prediction through sleuth model: A case study of Rasht County, Guilan, Iran. GeoJournal, 79, 591–604.

Dietzel, C., & Clarke, K. C. (2007). Toward optimal calibration of the SLEUTH land use change model. Transactions in GIS, 11, 29–45.

Dietzel, C., Oguz, H., Hemphill, J. J., Clarke, K. C., & Gazulis, N. (2005). Diffusion and coalescence of the Houston Metropolitan Area: Evidence supporting a new urban theory. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 32, 231–246.

Echenique, M. (2004). Econometric models of land use and transportation. In D. A. Hensher & K. J. Button (Eds.), Transport geography and spatial systems, handbook 5 of handbook in transport (pp. 185–202). Kidlington: Pergamon/Elsevier Science.

Engelen, G., White, R., & Uljee, I. (1997). Integrating constrained cellular automata models, GIS and decision support tools for urban planning and policy making. In H. P. J. Timmermans, & E. F. N. Spon (Eds.), Decision support systems in urban planning, London, pp. 125–155.

Feng, H. H., Liu, H. P., & Lü, Y. (2012). Scenario prediction and analysis of urban growth using SLEUTH model. Pedosphere, 22, 206–216.

Feng, Y., Liu, Y., Tong, X., Liu, M., & Deng, S. (2011). Modeling dynamic urban growth using cellular automata and particle swarm optimization rules. Landscape and Urban Planning, 102, 188–196.

Gandhi, S. I., & Suresh, V. M. (2012). Prediction of urban sprawl in Hyderabad City using spatial model, remote sensing and GIS techniques geography. International Journal of Scientific Research, ISSN No 2277–8179.

Geurs, K. T., & van Wee, B. (2004). Accessibility evaluation of land-use and transport strategies: Review and research directions. Transport Geography, 12, 127–140.

Hasani Sangani, M., Amiri, B. J., Alizadeh Shabani, A., Sakieh, Y., & Ashrafi, S. (2014). Modeling relationships between catchment attributes and river water quality in southern catchments of the Caspian Sea. Environmental Science and Pollution Research. doi: 10.1007/s11356-014-3727-5 .

He, C., Okada, N., Zhang, Q., Shi, P., & Li, J. (2008). Modelling dynamic urban expansion processes incorporating a potential model with cellular automata. Landscape and Urban Planning, 86, 79–91.

Herold, M., Goldstein, N. C., & Clarke, K. C. (2003). The spatiotemporal form of urban growth: Measurement, analysis and modeling. Remote Sensing of Environment, 86, 286–302.

Iranian Statistics Center. (2012). General census of population and housing of Karaj City.

Itami, R. M. (1994). Simulating spatial dynamics: Cellular automata theory. Landscape and Urban Planning, 30, 27–47.

Jantz, C. A., Goetz, S. J., Donato, D., & Claggett, P. (2010). Designing and implementing a regional urban modeling system using the SLEUTH cellular urban model. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 34, 1–16.

Jantz, C. A., Goetz, S. J., & Shelley, M. K. (2003). Using the SLEUTH urban growth model to simulate the impacts of future policy scenarios on urban land use in the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan area. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 31, 251–271.

Jeong, J., García-Moruno, L., & Hernández-Blanco, J. (2013). A site planning approach for rural buildings into a landscape using a spatial multi-criteria decision analysis methodology. Land Use Policy, 32, 108–118.

Jie, L., Wang, Y., & Shua-xia, Y. (2010). Environmental impact assessment of land use planning in Wuhan city based on ecological suitability analysis. Procedia Environmental Sciences, 2, 185–191.

Knox, P. L. (1994). Urbanization: Introduction to urban geography (p. 608). New Jersey: Prentice Hall.

Leao, S., Bishop, I., & Evans, D. (2004). Simulating urban growth in a developing nation’s region using a CA-based model. Urban Planning and Development, 130, 145–158.

Lee, C. (1973). Models in planning. New York: Pergamon Press.

Li, X., & Yeh, A. G. O. (2002). Neural-network-based cellular automata for simulating multiple land use changes using GIS. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 16, 323–343.

Liu, X., & Andersson, C. (2004). Assessing the impact of temporal dynamics on land-use change modeling. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 28, 107–124.

Liu, X., Li, X., Shi, X., Wu, S., & Liu, T. (2007). Simulating complex urban development using kernel-based non-linear cellular automata. Ecological Modelling, 1, 169–181.

Lu, T., Man-chun, L., Yong-xue, L., Wei, W., & Wei, H. (2009). Study of urban expansion simulation on the condition of ecological environment protection: A case study in Dianchi Basin in Kunming. Joint Urban Remote Sensing Event, 2, 1–6.

Mahiny, A. S., & Clarke, K. C. (2012). Guiding SLEUTH land-use/land-cover change modeling using multicriteria evaluation: Towards dynamic sustainable land-use planning. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 39, 925–944.

Mahiny, A. S., & Clarke, K. C. (2013). Simulating hydrologic impacts of urban growth using SLEUTH, multi criteria evaluation and runoff modeling. Environmental Informatics, 22, 27–38.

Mahiny, A. S., & Gholamalifard, M. (2007). Dynamic spatial modeling of urban growth through cellular automata in a GIS environment. International Journal of Environmental Research, 3, 272–279.

Maithani, S. (2010). Application of cellular automata and GIS techniques in urban growth modelling: A new perspective. India Journal, 7, 36–49.

Makhdum, M. (2007). Fundamental of land use planning. University of Tehran publication, pp. 272.

Municipality of the Karaj City. (2012). Comprehensive report on land use planning of the Karaj City.

Norman, L. M., Feller, M., & Phillip, G. D. (2009). Forecasting urban growth across the United States-Mexico border. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 33, 150–159.

Norman, L. M., Feller, M., & Villarreal, M. L. (2012). Developing spatially explicit footprints of plausible land-use scenarios in the Santa Cruz Watershed, Arizona and Sonora. Landscape and Urban Planning, 107, 225–235.

Oguz, H., Klein, A. G., & Srinivasan, R. (2007). Using the SLEUTH urban growth model to simulate the impact of future policy scenarios on urban land use in the Houston–Galvestone–Brazoria CMSA. Social Science, 2, 72–82.

Onsted, J., & Clarke, K. C. (2013). The inclusion of differentially assessed lands in urban growth model calibration: A comparison of two approaches using SLEUTH. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 26, 881–898.

Pontius, R. G, Jr, & Schneider, L. C. (2001). Land-cover change model validation by an ROC method for the Ipswich watershed, Massachusetts, USA. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 85, 239–248.

Portugali, J. (2000). Self-organization and the city. Berlin: Springer.

Pourebrahim, S., Hadipour, M., & Mokhtar, M. B. (2011). Integration of spatial analysis for land use planning in coastal areas; case of Kuala District, Selangor, Malaysia. Landscape and Urban Planning, 101, 84–97.

Rafiee, R., Mahiny, A. S., Khorasani, N., Darvishsefat, A. A., & Danekar, A. (2009). Simulating urban growth in Mashad City, Iran through the SLEUTH model (UGM). Cities, 26, 19–26.

Randolph, J. (2004). Environmental land use planning and management (p. 704). Washington, DC: Island Press.

Rienbow, A., & Goetzke, R. (2014). Supporting SLEUTH—Enhancing a cellular automata with support vector machines for urban growth modeling. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems,. doi: 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2014.05.001 .

Sakieh, Y. (2013). Urban sustainability analysis through the SLEUTH urban growth model and multi criteria evaluation: A case study of Karaj City. Dissertation, University of Tehran.

Sakieh, Y., Amiri, B. J., Danekar, A., Feghhi, J., & Dezhkam, S. (2014). Scenario-based evaluation of urban development sustainability: an integrative modeling approach to compromise between urbanization suitability index and landscape pattern. Environment, Development and Sustainability. doi: 10.1007/s10668-014-9609-7 .

Santé, I., García, A. M., Miranda, D., & Crecente, R. (2010). Cellular automata model for the simulation of real-world urban processes: A review and analysis. Landscape and Urban Planning, 96, 108–122.

Sheng, J., Qing, G., Chun-yu, W., Bei, L., Xiao-dong, L., Guang-ming, Z., et al. (2012). Ecological suitability evaluation for urban growth boundary in red soil hilly areas based on fuzzy theory. Central South University, 19, 1364–1369.

Silva, E. A., & Clarke, K. C. (2002). Calibration of the SLEUTH urban growth model for Lisbon and Porto, Portugal. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 26, 525–552.

Silva, E. A., & Clarke, K. C. (2005). Complexity, emergence and cellular urban models: Lessons learned from applying SLEUTH to two Portuguese metropolitan areas. European Planning Studies, 13, 93–115.

Singh, A. K. (2003). Modeling Landuse landcover changes using cellular automata in geo-spatial environment. Dissertation, ITC, Netherland. Spatial Analysis (CASA), London. pp. 58.

Soares-Filho, B. S., Cerqueira, G. C., & Pennachin, C. L. (2002). DINAMICA—A stochastic cellular automata model designed to simulate the landscape dynamics in an Amazonian colonization frontier. Ecological Modelling, 154, 217–235.

Stevens, D., Dragicevic, S., & Rothley, K. (2007). iCity: A GISeCA modelling tool for urban planning and decision making. Environmental Modelling and Software, 22, 761–773.

Straatman, B., White, R., & Engelen, G. (2004). Towards an automatic calibration procedure for constrained cellular automata. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 28, 149–170.

Sui, D. Z., & Zeng, H. (2001). Modeling the dynamics of landscape structure in Asia’s emerging Desakota regions: A case study in Shenzhen. Landscape and Urban Planning, 53, 37–62.

Sullivan, D. O., & Torrens, P. M. (2000). Cellular models of urban systems, CASA working paper series, paper 22, www.casa.ucl.uk . Accessed August 01, 2010.

Syphard, A. D., Clarke, K. C., & Franklin, J. (2005). Using a cellular automaton model to forecast the effects of urban growth on habitat pattern in southern California. Ecological Complexity, 2, 185–203.

Tobler, W. R. (1979). Cellular geography. In S. Gales & G. Olson (Eds.), PhD Dissertation, Reidel, Dortrecht, The Netherlands, D. Reidel, pp. 279–386.

Varanka, D. (2001). Modeling urban expansion in the Philadelphia Metropolitan Area. http://mcmcweb.er.usgs.gov/phil/modeling.html . Accessed March 26, 2010.

Verburg, P. H., Nijs, T. C. M. D., Eck, J. R. V., Visser, H., & Jong, K. D. (2004). A method to analyse neighbourhood characteristics of land use patterns. Public Health, 28, 667–690.

Verburg, P. H., & Overmars, K. P. (2009). Combining top-down and bottom-up dynamics in land use modeling: Exploring the future of abandoned farmlands in Europe with the Dyna-CLUE model. Landscape Ecology, 24, 1167–1181.

Verburg, P. H., Soepboer, W., Veldkamp, A., Limpiada, R., Espaldon, V., & Mastura, S. S. A. (2002). Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: The CLUE-S model. Environmental Management, 30, 391–405.

Vliet, J. V., White, R., & Dragicevic, S. (2008). Modeling urban growth using a variable grid cellular automaton. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 33, 35–43.

Wang, H., He, S., Liu, X., Dai, L., Pan, P., Hong, S., & Zhang, W. (2012). Simulating urban expansion using a cloud-based cellular automata model: A case study of Jiangxia, Wuhan, China. Landscape and Urban Planning, 110, 99–112.

White, R., & Engelen, G. (1993). Cellular automata and fractal urban form: A cellular modeling approach to the evolution of urban land use patterns. Environment and Planning, A, 25, 1175–1199.

White, R., & Engelen, G. (1994). Cellular dynamics and GIS: Modelling spatial complexity. Geographical Systems, 1, 237–253.

White, R., & Engelen, G. (1997). Cellular automata as the basis of integrated dynamic regional modeling. Environment and Planning B, 24, 235–246.

White, R., Engelen, G., & Uljee, I. (1997). The use of constrained cellular automata for high-resolution modelling of urban land-use dynamics. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 24, 323–343.

Wu, F. (1996). Changes in the structure of public housing provision in urban China Urban Studies. Urban Studies, 33, 1601–1627.

Wu, F. (1998). SimLand: A prototype to simulate land conversion through the integrated GIS and CA with AHP-derived transition rule. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 12, 63–82.

Wu, X., Hu, Y., He, H. S., Bu, R., Onsted, J., & Xi, F. (2009). Performance evaluation of the SLEUTH model in the Shenyang Metropolitan Area of Northeastern China. Environmental Modeling and Assessment, 14, 221–230.

Xi, F., He, H. S., Hu, Y., Bu, R., Chang, Y., Wu, X., et al. (2009). Simulating the impacts of ecological protection policies on urban land use sustainability in Shenyang-Fushun, China. International Journal of Urban Sustainable Development, 1, 111–127.

Xi, F., He, H. S., Clarke, K. C., Hu, Y., Wu, X., Liu, M., Shi, T., Geng, Y., & Gao, C. (2012). The potential impacts of sprawl on farmland in Northeast China– a new strategy for rural development. Landscape and Urban Planning, 104, 34–46.

Xu, K., Kong, C., Li, J., Zhang, L., & Wu, C. (2011). Suitability evaluation of urban construction land based on geo-environmental factors of Hangzhou, China. Computers & Geosciences, 37, 992–1102.

Yang, Q., Li, X., & Shi, X. (2008). Cellular automata for simulation land use changes based on support vector machines. Computers & Geosciences, 34(6), 592–602.

Yang, X., & Lo, C. P. (2003). Modeling urban growth and landscape changes in the Atlanta metropolitan area. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 17, 463–488.

Youssef, A. M., Pradhan, B., & Tarabees, E. (2010). Integrated evaluation of urban development suitability based on remote sensing and GIS techniques: Contribution from the analytic hierarchy process. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 4, 463–473.

Yuechen, I., Chunxia, L., Hong, Z., & Xin, G. (2011). Evaluation on the human settlements environment suitability in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing based on RS and GIS. Geographical Sciences, 21, 346–358.