Simulating the IPOD, East Asian summer monsoon, and their relationships in CMIP5

Springer Science and Business Media LLC - Tập 135 - Trang 1307-1322 - 2018
Miao Yu1, Jianping Li1,2, Fei Zheng3, Xiaofan Wang4, Jiayu Zheng5
1College of Global Change and Earth System Sciences (GCESS), Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
2Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, China
3State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
4Centre for Communication and Outreach, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
5State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China

Tóm tắt

This paper evaluates the simulation performance of the 37 coupled models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) with respect to the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and the Indo-Pacific warm pool and North Pacific Ocean dipole (IPOD) and also the interrelationships between them. The results show that the majority of the models are unable to accurately simulate the interannual variability and long-term trends of the EASM, and their simulations of the temporal and spatial variations of the IPOD are also limited. Further analysis showed that the correlation coefficients between the simulated and observed EASM index (EASMI) is proportional to those between the simulated and observed IPOD index (IPODI); that is, if the models have skills to simulate one of them then they will likely generate good simulations of another. Based on the above relationship, this paper proposes a conditional multi-model ensemble method (CMME) that eliminates those models without capability to simulate the IPOD and EASM when calculating the multi-model ensemble (MME). The analysis shows that, compared with the MME, this CMME method can significantly improve the simulations of the spatial and temporal variations of both the IPOD and EASM as well as their interrelationship, suggesting the potential for the CMME approach to be used in place of the MME method.

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