Sensitivity Analysis of Hydraulic Parameters in the Nowshahr–Nur Aquifer Using Numerical Methods
Tóm tắt
Coastal aquifers undergo multifaceted influences affecting their water quality. Among these factors are climate change, excessive exploitation, and agricultural practices, leading to escalated salinity due to both seawater intrusion and pollution. The primary aim of this study is to identify the principal vulnerabilities within the aquifer by executing a sensitivity analysis of the model. This analysis involves the adjustment of various model parameters—like hydraulic conductivity, specific drainage coefficients, recharge rates, layer thickness, well extraction rates, as well as boundary locations and types—to evaluate their impact on the model’s outcomes. Typically, sensitivity analysis involves altering one input parameter independently. Notably, a substantial alteration in the model’s output resulting from a change in a specific input parameter signifies the model’s sensitivity to that parameter. Our investigation focused on the model’s sensitivity to alterations in surface recharge, hydraulic conductivity, and specific drainage coefficients. The findings of the sensitivity analysis emphasized that the model is more responsive to increased recharge than to reduced recharge. For instance, a 10% decrease in recharge caused a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.770 m, while a 20% decrease resulted in an RMSE of 0.732 m. Conversely, a 10% and 20% increase in recharge led to RMSE values of 0.806 and 0.850, respectively. The southern segments of the aquifer, where groundwater fronts are situated, exhibit higher hydraulic conductivity due to coarser soil particles and greater permeability. Upon assessing this parameter’s sensitivity, it was noted that a 20% decrease in hydraulic conductivity led to an RMSE of 0.833, while a 20% increase produced an RMSE of 0.769. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis on specific drainage coefficients and well extraction rates revealed that while the model is not notably sensitive to specific drainage coefficients, an increase in extraction rates led to a decrease in the model’s error rate. Therefore, within the sensitivity analysis of this aquifer, the recharge rate and well extraction rate emerge as the most influential parameters.
Từ khóa
Tài liệu tham khảo
Abd-Elaty I, Abd-Elhamid HF, Nezhad MM (2019) Numerical analysis of physical barriers systems efficiency in controlling saltwater intrusion in coastal aquifers. Environ Sci Pollut Res 26(35):35882–35899
Alizadeh F, Saeedpanah I, Kardan Moghaddam H (2023) Using TODIM decision method to control saltwater intrusion by numerical simulation approach (study area: Nowshahr-Nur aquifer). Appl Water Sci 13(9):172
Datta B, Vennalakanti H, Dhar A (2009) Modeling and control of saltwater intrusion in a coastal aquifer of Andhra Pradesh, India. J Hydro-Environ Res 3(3):148–159
Guo W and Langevin CD (2002) User’s guide to SEAWAT; a computer program for simulation of three-dimensional variable-density ground-water flow. Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations
Kim IH, Yang J-S (2018) Prioritizing countermeasures for reducing seawater-intrusion area by considering regional characteristics using SEAWAT and a multicriteria decision-making method. Hydrol Process 32(25):3741–3757
Langevin CD, Thorne Jr DT, Dausman AM, Sukop MC, and Guo W (2008) SEAWAT version 4: a computer program for simulation of multi-species solute and heat transport. Techniques and methods
Lin K, Lu P, Xu C-Y, Yu X, Lan T, Chen X (2019) Modeling saltwater intrusion using an integrated Bayesian model averaging method in the Pearl River Delta. J Hydroinf 21(6):1147–1162
Luo Z, Kong J, Shen C, Xin P, Lu C, Li L, Barry DA (2021) Effects of aquifer geometry on seawater intrusion in annulus segment island aquifers. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 25(12):6591–6602
Luyun R, Momii K, Nakagava K, Takahashi M (2009) Effects of artificial reacharge and physical barrier on seawater intrusion. Ann J Hydraul Eng JSCE 53:85–90
Magazù S, Caccamo MT (2022) Climate change dynamics and modeling: future perspectives. Climate 10(5):65
McWhorter DB, Sunada DK, and Sunada DK (1977) Ground-water hydrology and hydraulics. Water Resources Publication
Reilly TE, Goodman AS (1985) Quantitative analysis of saltwater-freshwater relationships in groundwater systems—a historical perspective. J Hydrol 80(1):125–160
Rubio-Aliaga A, García-Cascales MS, Sánchez-Lozano JM, Molina-Garcia A (2021) MCDM-based multidimensional approach for selection of optimal groundwater pumping systems: design and case example. Renew Energy 163:213–224
Stein S, Yechieli Y, Shalev E, Kasher R, Sivan O (2019) The effect of pumping saline groundwater for desalination on the fresh–saline water interface dynamics. Water Res 156:46–57
van Lopik JH, Hartog N, Zaadnoordijk WJ, Cirkel DG, Raoof A (2015) Salinization in a stratified aquifer induced by heat transfer from well casings. Adv Water Resour 86:32–45