Nội dung được dịch bởi AI, chỉ mang tính chất tham khảo
Lựa chọn và điều chỉnh tổ hợp mô hình RCM: một nghiên cứu trường hợp để đánh giá sự khó chịu về nhiệt độ cho thành phố Prato
Tóm tắt
Trong nghiên cứu này, chúng tôi đề xuất một phương pháp để lựa chọn một tập hợp con các mô hình khí hậu khu vực có kỹ năng hợp lý trong việc mô phỏng khí hậu trong quá khứ và thể hiện tốt các thay đổi trong điều kiện khí hậu trung bình và cực đoan. Sau đó, một quy trình xử lý hậu kỳ cho các mô hình đã được chọn được thực hiện dựa trên sự điều chỉnh bản đồ phân vị. Việc lựa chọn một tập hợp con các mô hình khí hậu là một bước quan trọng khi tiến hành các nghiên cứu tác động của biến đổi khí hậu. Hiệu suất của phương pháp được đề xuất đã được đánh giá thông qua một nghiên cứu trường hợp về việc đánh giá sự khó chịu do nhiệt độ ở thành phố Prato, nằm ở Italy. Thông số khí hậu được áp dụng để đánh giá sự khó chịu do nhiệt độ cao là chỉ số humidex. Đối với trường hợp thử nghiệm cụ thể này, phương pháp được định nghĩa và sử dụng để lựa chọn một tập hợp con phù hợp của các mô hình khí hậu EURO-CORDEX để đánh giá sự thay đổi trong xu hướng của chỉ số humidex và sự không chắc chắn liên quan, đã chứng minh là hợp lệ.
Từ khóa
#mô hình khí hậu khu vực #biến đổi khí hậu #chỉ số humidex #xử lý hậu kỳ #EURO-CORDEXTài liệu tham khảo
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