Sự trì trệ hành chính hay kéo dài chu kỳ tài chính?

Aikman, D., A. Haldane, and B. Nelson. 2015. Curbing the credit cycle. The Economic Journal 125: 1072–1109. Arseneau, D., and M. Kiley. 2014. The role of financial imbalances in assessing the state of the economy. FEDS Notes 2014-04-18, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Atkeson, A., and P. Kehoe. 2004. Deflation and depression: Is there an empirical link? American Economic Review 94 (2):99–103. Auer, R., C. Borio, and A. Filardo. 2017. The globalisation of inflation: The growing importance of global value chains. BIS Working Papers, No. 602, January. Baldwin, R. 2016. The great convergence: Information technology and the new globalization. Cambridge: Belknap Press. Ball, L. 2014. Long-term damage from the Great Recession in OECD countries. European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies 11 (2):149–160. Ball, L., and S. Mazumder. 2011. Inflation dynamics and the great recession. NBER Working Papers, No. 17044, May. Bank for International Settlements. 2014. 84th Annual Report, June. Bank for International Settlements. 2015. 85th Annual Report, June. Bank for International Settlements. 2016. 86th Annual Report, June. Bank for International Settlements. 2017. BIS Quarterly Review, March. Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. 2010. An assessment of the long-term economic impact of stronger capital and liquidity requirements, July. Bean, C., C. Broda, T. Ito, and R. Kroszner. 2015. Low for long? Causes and consequences of persistently low interest rates. Geneva Reports on the World Economy, No. 17, International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies. London: CEPR Press. Bech, M., E. Kharroubi, and L. Gambacorta. 2014. Monetary policy in a downturn: Are financial crises special? International Finance 7(1):99–119 (Also available as BIS Working Papers, No 388). Bernanke, B. 2005. The global saving glut and the US current account deficit. Sandridge Lecture Richmond, 10 March. Bernanke, B. 2015. Why are interest rates so low, part 2: Secular stagnation, Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/ben-bernanke/2015/03/31/why-are-interest-rates-so-low-part-2-secular-stagnation/. Bianchi, F., and A. Civelli. 2013. Globalization and inflation: Structural evidence from a time-varying VAR approach. Economic Research Initiatives at Duke (ERID) Working Papers, No. 157, July. Blagrave, P., R. García-Saltos, D. Laxton, and F. Zhang. 2015. A simple multivariate filter for estimating potential output. IMF Working Papers, WP/15/79. Blanchard, O., E. Cerutti, and L. Summers. 2015. Inflation and activity—two explorations and their monetary policy implications. NBER Working Papers, No. 21726, November. Blanchard, O., G. Lorenzoni, and J.-P. L’Huillier. 2017. Short-run effects of lower productivity growth. A twist on the secular stagnation hypothesis. NBER Working Papers, No. 23160, February. Bordo, M., and A. Redish. 2004. Is deflation depressing: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard. In Deflation: Current and historical perspectives, ed. R. Burdekin, and P. Siklos. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Borio, C. 2007. Monetary and prudential policies at a crossroads? New challenges in the new century. Moneda y Crédito 224: 63–101. Borio, C. 2014a. The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt. Journal of Banking & Finance 45: 182–198. Borio, C. 2014b. The international monetary and financial system: Its Achilles heel and what to do about it. BIS Working Papers, No. 456, August. Borio, C. 2014c. Monetary policy and financial stability: What role in prevention and recovery? Capitalism and Society 9(2):Article 1 (Also available as BIS Working Papers, No. 440, January 2014). Borio, C. 2014d. Macroprudential frameworks: (too) great expectations? Central Banking Journal 25th Anniversary issue, August (Also available in BIS Speeches). Borio, C., and P. Disyatat. 2011. Global imbalances and the financial crisis: Link or no link? BIS Working Papers, No. 346, May (Revised and extended version of 2010. Global imbalances and the financial crisis: Reassessing the role of international finance. Asian Economic Policy Review 5:198–216). Borio, C., P. Disyatat, and M. Juselius. 2016. Rethinking potential output: Embedding information about the financial cycle. Oxford Economic Papers (Also available as BIS Working Papers, No. 404, February 2013). Borio, C., and M. Drehmann. 2009. Assessing the risk of banking crises—revisited. BIS Quarterly Review March:29–46. Borio, C., and A. Filardo. 2004. Looking back at the international deflation record. North American Journal of Economics and Finance 15(3):287–311. Borio, C., and A. Filardo. 2007. Globalisation and inflation: New cross-country evidence on the global determinants of domestic inflation. BIS Working Papers, No. 227, May. Borio, C., M. Erdem, A. Filardo, and B. Hofmann. 2015. The costs of deflations: A historical perspective. BIS Quarterly Review March:31–54. Borio, C., C. Furfine, and P. Lowe. 2001. Procyclicality of the financial system and financial stability: Issues and policy options. In Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, 1–57. BIS Papers, No. 1, March. Borio, C., E. Kharroubi, C. Upper, and F. Zampolli. 2015a. Labour reallocation and productivity dynamics: Financial causes, real consequences. BIS Working Papers, No. 534, December. Borio, C., and P. Lowe. 2002. Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: Exploring the nexus. BIS Working Papers, No. 114, July. Bouis, R., O. Causa, L. Demmou, R. Duval, and A. Zdzienicka. 2012. The short-term effects of structural reforms: An empirical analysis. OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 949, March. Bruno, V., and H. S. Shin. 2014. Cross-border banking and global liquidity. BIS Working Papers, No. 458, September. Cerra, V., and S. Saxena. 2008. Growth dynamics: The myth of economic recovery. American Economic Review 98 (1):439–457. Ciccarelli, M., and B. Mojon. 2010. Global inflation. Review of Economics and Statistics 92: 524–535. Claessens, S., M. Kose, and M. Terrones. 2011. Financial cycles: What? How? When? IMF Working Papers, WP/11/76. Coibion, O., and Y. Gorodnichenko. 2015. Is the Phillips curve alive and well after all? Inflation expectations and the missing disinflation. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 7 (1):197–232. Crockett, A. 2000. In search of anchors for financial and monetary stability. Speech at the SUERF Colloquium, Vienna, 27–29 April (available in BIS Speeches and, in extended form, with C Borio (co-author), as Greek Economic Review, vol. 20, No. 2, Autumn, pp 1–14). De Bonis, R., and A. Silvestrini. 2014. The Italian financial cycle: 1861–2011. Cliometrica 8 (3):301–334. Drehmann, M., C. Borio, and K. Tsatsaronis. 2011. Anchoring countercyclical capital buffers: The role of credit aggregates. International Journal of Central Banking 7 (4):189–240. Drehmann, M., C. Borio, and K. Tsatsaronis. 2012. Characterising the financial cycle: Don’t lose sight of the medium term!. BIS Working Papers, No. 380, November. Eichengreen, B., and K. Mitchener. 2004. The Great Depression as a credit boom gone wrong. Research in Economic History 22: 183–237. Eichengreen, B., D. Park, and K. Shin. 2016. Deflation in Asia: Should the dangers be dismissed? ADB Economics Working Paper Series, No. 490, January. Eickmeier, S., and K. Moll. 2009. The global dimension of inflation: Evidence from factor-augmented Phillips curves. ECB, Working Paper Series, No. 1011, February. Einarsson, B., K. Gunnlaugsson, T. Ólafsson, and T. Pétursson. 2016. The long history of financial boom-bust cycles in Iceland. Part II: Financial cycles. Central Bank of Iceland Working Papers, No. 72. Faust, J., and E. Leeper. 2015. The myth of normal: The bumpy story of inflation and monetary policy. Paper presented at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Policy Symposium on Inflation dynamics and monetary policy, Jackson Hole, 27–29 August. Faust, J., and J. Wright. 2013. Forecasting inflation. In Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edited by Graham Elliott, Clive Granger and A. Timmermann, vol. 2, 2–56. North-Holland: Elsevier Fisher, I. 1933. The debt-deflation theory of great depressions. Econometrica 1(4):337–357. Gagnon, E., K. Johannsen, and D. López-Salido. 2016. Understanding the New Normal: The role of demographics. Finance and Economics Discussion Series, No. 2016-080, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Gordon, R. 2012. Is US economic growth over? Faltering innovation confronts the six headwinds. NBER Working Papers, No. 18315, August. Gordon, R. 2013. The Phillips curve is alive and well: Inflation and the NAIRU during the slow recovery. NBER Working Papers, No. 19390, August. Hofmann, B., and B. Bogdanova. 2012. Taylor rules and monetary policy: A global ‘Great Deviation’? BIS Quarterly Review September:37–49. Ihrig, J., S. Kamin, D. Lindner, and J. Márquez. 2010. Some simple tests of the globalization and inflation hypothesis. International Finance 13: 343–375. International Monetary Fund (IMF) (2013): “The dog that didn’t bark: has inflation been muzzled or was it just sleeping”, World Economic Outlook, April, Chapter 3. Jordà, O., M. Schularick, and A. Taylor. 2013. When credit bites back. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 45(2):3–28. Juselius, M., C. Borio, P. Disyatat, and M. Drehmann. 2016. Monetary policy, the financial cycle and ultralow interest rates. BIS Working Papers, No. 569, July (Forthcoming in the International Journal of Central Banking). Koo, R. 2003. Balance sheet recession: Japan’s struggle with uncharted economics and its global implications. Singapore: Wiley. Laubach, T., and J. Williams. 2003. Measuring the natural rate of interest. The Review of Economics and Statistics 85(4):1063–1070. Lodge, D., and I. Mikolajun. 2016. Advanced economy inflation: The role of global factors. ECB, Working Paper Series, No. 1948, August. Martínez-García, E., and M. Wynne. 2012. Global slack as a determinant of US inflation. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Papers, No. 123. McCauley, R., P. McGuire, and V. Sushko. 2015. Global dollar credit: Links to US monetary policy and leverage. Economic Policy 30(82):189–229. Melolinna, M., and M. Tóth. 2016. Output gaps, inflation and financial cycles in the UK. Bank of England, Staff Working Papers, No. 585. Mian, A., A. Sufi, and E. Verner. 2015. Household debt and business cycles worldwide. NBER Working Papers, No. 21581, September. Pain, N., I. Koske, and M. Sollie. 2008. Globalisation and OECD consumer price inflation. OECD Journal: Economic Studies 1: 1–32. Rajan, R. 2014. Competitive monetary easing: Is it yesterday once more? Washington: Brookings Institution. Rajan, R. 2015. Panel remarks at the IMF Conference, Rethinking Macro Policy III, Washington DC, 15–16 April. Reinhart, C., and V. Reinhart. 2010. After the fall. NBER Working Papers, No. 16334, September. Rey, H. 2013. Dilemma not trilemma: The global financial cycle and monetary policy independence. Paper presented at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Policy Symposium on Global dimensions of unconventional monetary policy, Jackson Hole, 22–24 August. Rogoff, K. 2015. Debt supercycle, not secular stagnation. Article on VoxEU.org, 22 April. www.voxeu.org/article/debt-supercycle-not-secular-stagnation. Rünstler, G., and M. Vlekke. 2016. Business, housing and credit cycles. ECB, Working Paper Series, No. 1915, June. Schüler, Y., P. Hiebert, and T. Peltonen. 2015. Characterising the financial cycle: A multivariate and time-varying approach. ECB, Working Paper Series, No. 1846, September. Selgin, G. 1997. Less than zero: The case for a falling price level in a growing economy. IEA Hobart Paper, No. 132, The Institute of Economic Affairs, April, London. Shin, H.S. 2012. Global banking glut and loan risk premium. IMF Economic Review 60(2):155–192. Shin, H.S. 2017. How much should we read into shifts in long-dated yields? Speech at the US Monetary Policy Forum, New York City, 3 March. Stock, J., and M. Watson. 2007. Why has US inflation become harder to forecast? Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 39(1):3–33. Summers, L. 2014. Reflections on the ‘New Secular Stagnation Hypothesis’. In Secular stagnation: Facts, causes and cures. VoxEU.org eBook, edited by C. Teulings and R. Baldwin. London: CEPR Press. Summers, L. 2016. Macroeconomic policy and secular stagnation. Mundell-Fleming Lecture, at the Seventeenth Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference, Macroeconomics after the Great Recession, IMF, Washington DC, 3–4 November. Taylor, J., and V. Wieland. 2016. Finding the equilibrium real interest rate in a fog of policy deviations. Business Economics 51(3):147–154. Teulings, C., and R. Baldwin (eds.). 2014. Secular stagnation: facts, causes and cures, a VoxEU.org book. London: CEPR Press.