Seasonal temperature and precipitation record breakings in Hungary in a warming world

Springer Science and Business Media LLC - 2024
Péter Szabó1, Judit Bartholy1, Rita Pongrácz1
1Department of Meteorology, Institute of Geography and Earth Sciences, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary

Tóm tắt

AbstractClimate change is leading to new daily record-breaking values globally. Since there is a clear shift towards the higher temperature values, the ratio of the numbers of new record high temperatures to record lows indicates the acceleration of global warming differently at regional levels—but is there an amplification for precipitation records as well? The main purpose of this regional analysis is to determine how many record highs/lows are broken on a seasonal level, and how large the area affected is, which enables us to assess the potentially large impacts at a local scale. The analysis is based on the statistical characteristics that the number of record breakings decreases exponentially with time for a stationary climate (when natural variability prevails). The assessment focuses on Hungary and considers the past from 1971 and the future from 2021. Results suggest that (1) currently the ratio of the numbers of new record high to record low temperatures is higher in Hungary than globally, particularly for summer and autumn (around 3.5); (2) substantially more new warm records and almost no cold records are expected by the late century (with a ratio of 140–160) following a high emission scenario, particularly in summer, when the impacts of these record breakings are the largest; (3) new precipitation records in the region are much less affected by the anthropogenic activity.

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Beniston, M.: Ratios of record high to record low temperatures in Europe exhibit sharp increases since 2000 despite a slowdown in the rise of mean temperatures. Clim. Change 129, 225–237 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1325-2

Boer, G.J.: Changes in interannual variability and decadal potential predictability under global warming. J. Clim. 22, 3098–3109 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2835.1

Coumou, D., Di Capua, G., Vavrus, S., Wang, L., Wang, S.: The influence of Arctic amplification on mid-latitude summer circulation. Nat. Commun. 9, 2959 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05256-8

Dyrrdal, A.V., Olsson, J., Médus, E., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Post, P., Aņiskeviča, S., Thorndahl, S., Førland, E., Wern, L., Mačiulytė, V., Mäkelä, A.: Observed changes in heavy daily precipitation over the Nordic-Baltic region. J. Hydrol. Reg. Stud. 38, 2214–5818 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100965

Easterling, D.R., Gerald, A.M., Camille, P., et al.: Climate extremes observations, modeling, and impacts. Science 289, 2068–2074 (2000). https://doi.org/10.1126/science.289.5487.2068

Fantini, A., Raffaele, F., Torma, Cs., Bacer, S., Coppola, E., Giorgi, F., Ahrens, B., Dubois, C., Sanchez, E., Verdecchia, M.: Assessment of multiple daily precipitation statistics in ERA-Interim driven Med-CORDEX and EURO-CORDEX experiments against high resolution observations. Clim. Dyn. 51, 877–900 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3453-4

Fischer, E.M., Knutti, R.: Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early models. Nat. Clim. Chang. 6(11), 986–991 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3110

Folland, C.K., Karl, T.R., Christy, J.R., Clarke, R.A., Gruza, G.V., Jouzel, J., Wang, S.W.: Observed Climate Variability and Change. In: Houghton, J.T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D.J., Noguer, M., vanderLinden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA, (eds.) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2001)

Glick, N.: Breaking records and breaking boards. Am. Math. Mon. 85(1), 2–26 (1978). https://doi.org/10.2307/2978044

IPCC: Summary for policymakers. In: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S.L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M.I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews. J.B.R., Maycock, T.K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., Zhou, B. (eds) Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2021). https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.001

Izsák, B., Szentimrey, T.: To what extent does the detection of climate change in Hungary depend on the choice of statistical methods? Int. J. Geomath. 11, 17 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13137-020-00154-y

Kotlarski, S., Keuler, K., Christensen, O.B., Colette, A., Déqué, M., Gobiet, A., Goergen, K., Jacob, D., Lüthi, D., van Meijgaard, E., Nikulin, G., Schär, C., Teichmann, C., Vautard, R., Warrach-Sagi, K., Wulfmeyer, V.: Regional climate modeling on European scales: a joint standard evaluation of the EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble. Geosci. Model Dev. 7, 1297–1333 (2014). https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1297-2014

Luterbacher, J., Liniger, M.A., Menzel, A., Estrella, N., Della-Marta, P.M., Pfister, C., Rutishauser, T., Xoplaki, E.: Exceptional European warmth of autumn 2006 and winter 2007: Historical context, the underlying dynamics, and its phenological impacts. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L12704 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL029951

Meehl, G.A., Tebaldi, C., Walton, G., Easterling, D., McDaniel, L.: The relative increase of record high maximum temperatures compared to record low minimum temperatures in the US. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L23701 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040736

Meehl, G.A., Tebaldi, C., Adams-Smith, D.: US daily temperature records past, present, and future. PNAS 113(49), 13977–13982 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1606117113

Pongrácz, R., Bartholy, J., Kis, A.: Estimation of future precipitation conditions for Hungary with special focus on dry periods. Időjárás 118(4), 305–321 (2014)

Portmann, R.W., Solomon, S., Hegerl, G.C.: Spatial and seasonal patterns in climate change, temperatures, and precipitation across the United States. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 106, 7324–7329 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0808533106

Pratap, S., Markonis, Y.: The response of the hydrological cycle to temperature changes in recent and distant climatic history. Prog. Earth Planet Sci. 9, 30 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-022-00489-0

Robinson, A., Lehmann, J., Barriopedro, D., Rahmstorf, S., Coumou, D.: Increasing heat and rainfall extremes now far outside the historical climate. NPJ Clim. Atmos. Sci. 4, 45 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00202-w

Rousi, E., Kornhuber, K., Beobide-Arsuaga, G., Luo, F., Coumou, D.: Accelerated western European heatwave trends linked to more-persistent double jets over Eurasia. Nat. Commun. 13, 3851 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-31432-y

Rowe, C.M., Derry, L.E.: Trends in record-breaking temperatures for the conterminous United States. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L1670 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052775

Samuelsson, P., Gollvik, S., Jansson, C., Kupiainen, M., Kourzeneva, E., vandeBerg, W.J.: The surface processes of the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric climate model (RCA4). Meteorologie 157, 42 (2015)

Szabó, P., Szépszó, G.: Quantifying sources of uncertainty in temperature and precipitation projections over different parts of Europe. In: Bátkai, A., Csomós, P., Faragó, I., Horányi, A., Szépszó, G. (eds.) Mathematical Problems in Meteorological Modelling Mathematics in Industry, pp. 207–237. Springer International Publishing, Berlin (2016)

van Meijgaard, E., Van Ulft, L.H., Lenderink, G., de Roode, S. R., Wipfler, L., Boers, R., Timmermans, R.M.A.: Refinement and application of a regional atmospheric model for climate scenario calculations of western Europe, climate changes spatial planning publication: KvR 054/12, the Programme office climate changes spatial planning, Nieuwegein, The Netherlands, ISBN/EAN 978–90–8815–046–3, 44 p (2012)

van Vuuren, D.P., Edmonds, J., Thomson, A., Riahi, K., Kainuma, M., Matsui, T., Hurtt, G.C., Lamarque, J.-F., Meinshausen, M., Smith, S., Granier, C., Rose, S.K., Hibbard, K.A.: Representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim. Change 109, 5–31 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z

Vautard, R., Cattiaux, J., Happé, T., Singh, J., Bonnet, R., Cassou, C., Coumou, D., D'Andrea F., Faranda, D., Fischer, E., Ribes, A., Yiou, P., Sippel, S.: Heat extremes in Western Europe are increasing faster than simulated due to missed atmospheric circulation trends (2023). https://hal.science/hal-03937057

Welch, B.L.: The generalization of “Student’s” problem when several different population variances are involved. Biometrika 34(1–2), 28–35 (1947). https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/34.1-2.28

WMO: State of the Global Climate 2021. WMO-No. 1290, Geneva. 57p (2022)

Thông tin
Thông tin xuất bản

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Thông tin tác giả