Scenario Development and Foresight Analysis: Exploring Options to Inform Choices

Annual Review of Environment and Resources - Tập 43 Số 1 - Trang 545-570 - 2018
Keith Wiebe1, Monika Zurek2, Steven Lord2, Natalia Brzezina3, Gnel Gabrielyan4, Jessica Libertini5, Adam Loch6, Resham Thapa-Parajuli7, Joost Vervoort8,2, Henk Westhoek9
1Environment and Production Technology Division, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC 20005, USA;
2Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, United Kingdom
3Sustainable Food Economies Research Group, KU Leuven, 3001 Leuven, Belgium;
4Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14853, USA;
5Applied Mathematics Department, Virginia Military Institute, Lexington, Virginia 24450, USA;
6Center for Global Food and Resources, University of Adelaide, Adelaide SA 5005, Australia;
7Business School, Faculty of Business, Law and Politics, University of Hull, Hull HU6 7RX, United Kingdom;
8Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, 3584 CS Utrecht, The Netherlands
9PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2500 GH The Hague, the Netherlands

Tóm tắt

In an increasingly globalized and interconnected world, where social and environmental change occur ever more rapidly, careful futures-oriented thinking becomes crucial for effective decision making. Foresight activities, including scenario development, quantitative modeling, and scenario-guided design of policies and programs, play a key role in exploring options to address socioeconomic and environmental challenges across many sectors and decision-making levels. We take stock of recent methodological developments in scenario and foresight exercises, seek to provide greater clarity on the many diverse approaches employed, and examine their use by decision makers in different fields and at different geographic, administrative, and temporal scales. Experience shows the importance of clearly formulated questions, structured dialog, carefully designed scenarios, sophisticated biophysical and socioeconomic analysis, and iteration as needed to more effectively link the growing scenarios and foresight community with today's decision makers and to better address the social, economic, and environmental challenges of tomorrow.

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Annual Review of Environment and Resources

Tập 43 Số 1

545-570

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