Robust future‐oriented technology portfolios: Black–Litterman approach

R and D Management - Tập 43 Số 5 - Trang 409-419 - 2013
Juneseuk Shin1, Byoung‐Youl Coh2, Chang‐Yong Lee3
1Department of Systems Management Engineering Sungkyunkwan University 300 Chunchun‐dong Jangan‐gu Suwon Kyounggi‐do Republic of Korea
2Technology Information Analysis Center Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information 66 Hoegi‐ro Dongdaemun‐gu Seoul Republic of Korea
3School of Technology Management Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology UNIST‐gil 50 Ulsan Republic of Korea

Tóm tắt

We propose a new way of constructing more robust technology portfolios to overcome the weaknesses of previous technology portfolios based either on the judgments of experts or on quantitative data such as patents. Instead of using historical data, the method of nonlinear forecasting enables us to forecast the future number of patent citations and accordingly, to use the forecast as a quantitative proxy for future returns and risks of technologies. Using the Black–Litterman portfolio model, we improve the accuracy of inputs by combining the future views of experts with the future returns and risks of technologies. As a consequence of this, the portfolio becomes strongly future‐oriented. With our approach, corporate managers use both experts and data more effectively to build robust technology portfolios. In particular, our method is of great help for companies launching new businesses because the method avoids heavy dependency on internal experts with little knowledge about emerging technologies. A company entering the molecular amplification instrument market is exemplified herein.

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R and D Management

Tập 43 Số 5

409-419

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