Risk factors for portopulmonary hypertension in patients with cirrhosis: a prospective, multicenter study

Tricuspid regurgitation pressure gradient (TRPG) measurement by echocardiography is recommended as the most objective examination to detect portopulmonary hypertension (PoPH). This study aimed to identify factors associated with a high TRPG in patients with cirrhosis and develop a scoring model for identifying patients who are most likely to benefit from echocardiography investigations. A total of 486 patients who underwent echocardiography were randomly allocated to the derivation and validation sets at a ratio of 2:1. Of the patients, 51 (10.5%) had TRPG ≥ 35 mmHg. The median brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) was 39.5 pg/mL. Shortness of breath (SOB) was reported by 91 (18.7%) patients. In the derivation set, multivariate analysis identified female gender, shortness of breath, and BNP ≥ 48.9 pg/mL as independent factors for TRPG ≥ 35 mmHg. The risk score for predicting TRPG ≥ 35 mmHg was calculated as follows: − 3.596 + 1.250 × gender (female: 1, male: 0) + 1.093 × SOB (presence: 1, absence: 0) + 0.953 × BNP (≥ 48.9 pg/mL: 1, < 48.9 pg/mL: 0). The risk score yielded sensitivity of 66.7%, specificity of 75.3%, positive predictive value of 25.5%, negative predict value of 94.3%, and predictive accuracy of 74.4% for predicting TRPG ≥ 35 mmHg. These results were almost similar in the validation set, indicating the reproducibility and validity of the risk score. This study clarified the characteristics of patients with suspected PoPH and developed a scoring model for identifying patients at high risk of PoPH, which may be used in selecting patients that may benefit from echocardiography.