Results of a 36-hour storm surge prediction of the North Sea for 3 January 1976 on the basis of numerical models
Tóm tắt
To explore the feasibility of forescasting North Sea storm surges by integrating numerically a combined atmospheric-oceanographic physical model, the severe storm and the resulting water levels occurring on 3 January 1976 were simulated as a first step into this direction. For this purpose, the atmospheric model was run with a resolution of 8 levels in the vertical and a horizontal grid spacing of 1.4° in latitude and 2.8° in longitude on the hemisphere. The initial conditions are based upon observations of 2 January 1976, 12 GMT, i.e. about 24 hours before the storm reached its greatest intensity in the southern parts of the North Sea. The surface wind predicted by the atmospheric model was converted into stress values through a bulk formula which then entered the vertically integrated North Sea model, to yield the desired water elevations in a 22 km-grid. Moreover, also the observed wind, stemming from a careful re-analysis of the storm situation, was handled in the same way. The numerically obtained results were compared with gauge measurements at a number of coastal stations.
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