Responses of insect pests, pathogens, and invasive plant species to climate change in the forests of northeastern North America: What can we predict?This article is one of a selection of papers from NE Forests 2100: A Synthesis of Climate Change Impacts on Forests of the Northeastern US and Eastern Canada.

Canadian Journal of Forest Research - Tập 39 Số 2 - Trang 231-248 - 2009
Jeffrey S. Dukes1,2,3,4,5, Jennifer Pontius1,2,3,4,5, David A. Orwig1,2,3,4,5, Jeff R. Garnas1,2,3,4,5, Vikki Rodgers1,2,3,4,5, Nicholas J. Brazee1,2,3,4,5, Barry J. Cooke1,2,3,4,5, Kathleen A. Theoharides1,2,3,4,5, Erik Stange1,2,3,4,5, Robin A. Harrington1,2,3,4,5, Joan G. Ehrenfeld1,2,3,4,5, Jessica Gurevitch1,2,3,4,5, Manuel Lerdau1,2,3,4,5, Kristina A. Stinson1,2,3,4,5, Robert L. Wick1,2,3,4,5, Matthew P. Ayres1,2,3,4,5
1Boston University, Biology Department, 5 Cummington Street, Boston MA 02215, USA
2Dartmouth College, Biological Sciences, Gilman Hall, Hanover, NH 03755, USA.
3Harvard University, Harvard Forest, Petersham, MA 01366, USA
4USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, 271 Mast Road, Durham, NH 03824, USA
5University of Massachusetts, Department of Biology, Boston, MA 02125, USA.

Tóm tắt

Climate models project that by 2100, the northeastern US and eastern Canada will warm by approximately 3–5 °C, with increased winter precipitation. These changes will affect trees directly and also indirectly through effects on “nuisance” species, such as insect pests, pathogens, and invasive plants. We review how basic ecological principles can be used to predict nuisance species’ responses to climate change and how this is likely to impact northeastern forests. We then examine in detail the potential responses of two pest species (hemlock woolly adelgid ( Adelges tsugae Annand) and forest tent caterpillar ( Malacosoma disstria Hubner)), two pathogens (armillaria root rot ( Armillaria spp.) and beech bark disease ( Cryptococcus fagisuga Lind. + Neonectria spp.)), and two invasive plant species (glossy buckthorn ( Frangula alnus Mill.) and oriental bittersweet ( Celastrus orbiculatus Thunb.)). Several of these species are likely to have stronger or more widespread effects on forest composition and structure under the projected climate. However, uncertainty pervades our predictions because we lack adequate data on the species and because some species depend on complex, incompletely understood, unstable relationships. While targeted research will increase our confidence in making predictions, some uncertainty will always persist. Therefore, we encourage policies that allow for this uncertainty by considering a wide range of possible scenarios.

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