Responses of Yield Fluctuation of Winter Oilseed Rape to Climate Anomalies in South China at Provincial Scale
Tóm tắt
The regional differences for responses of winter oilseed rape yield to climate changes was not reported in China, and the statistical climate–yield relationships at the provincial scale in south China should be a valuable attempt. With using provincial data of climate variables and oilseed rape yields during 1978–2016, the main findings were as follows: (1) based on 14 provincial climate-induced yield index (CIYI) series for oilseed rape yield, south China could be divided into five sub-regions with different temporal variations in CIYI by using principal component analysis, and they were Yangtze River delta (Region I), central south China (Region II), southwest China (Region III), southernmost China (Region IV) and southeastern coast (Region V), respectively; (2) the correlation and regression analysis between CIYI and monthly climate variables indicated that the precipitation of April, average potential evapotranspiration of November, average potential evapotranspiration of October, average mean temperature of May, and average potential evapotranspiration of September were the key climate variables (KCV) affecting yield in Region I, II, III, IV and V, respectively; (4) among the five sub-regions, the impacts of KCV changes on yields in southwest China were more notable, and the increasing trend of average potential evapotranspiration of November caused the decrease of yield by 2.08% in 1990s and 4.24% after 2000, respectively. These results could be employed as references for the assessment and mitigation of agro-meteorological disasters in south China.
Tài liệu tham khảo
Ababaei, B., & Etedali, H. R. (2019). Investigating climate change over 1957–2016 in an arid environment with three drought indexes. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02793-0
Alizadeh, F., Roushangar, K., & Adamowski, J. (2019). Investigating monthly precipitation variability using a multiscale approach based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition. Paddy and Water Environment. Doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s10333-019-00754-x.
Ashok, K., Behera, S. K., Rao, S. A., Weng, H. Y., & Yamagata, T. (2007). El Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnection. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112, C11007.
Capra, A., & Scicolone, B. (2012). Spatiotemporal variability of drought on a short–medium time scale in the Calabria Region (Southern Italy). Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 110(3), 471–488.
Chen, Y. Z., Li, G. C., & Li, Q. L. (2016). Analysis of spatial distribution evolution and determinants of rapeseed production in China. Journal of Hunan Agricultural University (Social Sciences), 17(2), 009–015. (in Chinese with English abstract).
El-Maayar, M., & Lange, M. (2013). A methodology to infer crop yield response to climate variability and change using long-term observations. Atmosphere, 4(4), 365–382.
Evans, N., Butterworth, M. H., Baierl, A., et al. (2010). The impact of climate change on disease constraints on production of oilseed rape. Food Security, 2(2), 143–156.
Feng, J., & Li, J. (2011). Influence of El Niño Modoki on spring rainfall over south China. Journal of Geophysical Research, 116, D13102.
Guo, A., Chang, J., Wang, Y., Huang, Q., Guo, Z., & Zhou, S. (2018). Bivariate frequency analysis of flood and extreme precipitation under changing environment: case study in catchments of the Loess Plateau, China. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 32(7), 2057–2074.
He, Y., Revell, B. J., Leng, B., & Feng, Z. (2017). The effects of weather on oilseed rape (OSR) yield in China: Future implications of climate change. Sustainability 9(3), 418.
Hertel, T. W., Burke, M. B., & Lobell, D. B. (2010). The poverty implications of climate-induced crop yield changes by 2030. Global Environmental Change, 20(4), 577–585.
Huang, J., Islam, A. T., Zhang, F., & Hu, Z. (2017). Spatiotemporal analysis the precipitation extremes affecting rice yield in Jiangsu province, southeast China. International Journal of Biometeorology, 61(10), 1863–1872.
Huang, J., Zhou, L., Zhang, F., & Hu, Z. (2019). Quantifying the effect of temporal variability of agro-meteorological disasters on winter oilseed rape yield: a case study in Jiangsu province, southeast China. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 191(5), 276.
Li, C., Wang, R., Xu, J., Luo, Y., Tan, M. L., & Jiang, Y. (2018). Analysis of meteorological dryness/wetness features for spring wheat production in the Ili River basin, China. International Journal of Biometeorology, 62(12), 2197–2204.
Liu, Y., Xiao, J., Ju, W., et al. (2016). Recent trends in vegetation greenness in China significantly altered annual evapotranspiration and water yield. Environmental Research Letters, 11(9), 094010.
Liu, Y., Xiao, J., Ju, W., et al. (2018). Satellite-derived LAI products exhibit large discrepancies and can lead to substantial uncertainty in simulated carbon and water fluxes. Remote Sensing of Environment, 206, 174–188.
Polong, F., Chen, H., Sun, S., & Ongoma, V. (2019). Temporal and spatial evolution of the standard precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) in the Tana River Basin, Kenya. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02858-0
Qin, P. C., Liu, Z. X., Wan, S. Q. et al. (2016). Identification of yield limiting factors for oilseed rape in Hubei province based on CART and random forest model. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 37(6), 691–699 (in Chinese with English abstract).
Qiu, R., Liu, C., Cui, N., et al. (2019). Evapotranspiration estimation using a modified Priestley-Taylor model in a rice-wheat rotation system. Agricultural Water Management, 224, 105755.
Tian, Z., Ding, Q., Lian, Z., & Fan, D. (2014). Advances of researches in the impact on oil crops under climate change. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 30(15), 1–6 ((in Chinese with English abstract)).
Tian, Z., Ji, Y., Sun, L., et al. (2018). Changes in production potentials of rapeseed in the Yangtze River Basin of China under climate change: A multi-model ensemble approach. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 28(11), 1700–1714.
Wu, W., Lin, H., Fu, W. et al. (2019). Soil organic carbon content and microbial functional diversity were lower in monospecific Chinese hickory stands than in natural Chinese hickory–broad-leaved mixed forests. Forests, 10(4), 357.
Zhang, S. J., & Zhang, C. L. (2011). Influences of climate changes on oilseed rape production in China. Journal of Agro-Environment Science, 30(9), 1749–1754 ((in Chinese with English abstract)).
Zhang, W., Jin, F. F., & Turner, A. (2014). Increasing autumn drought over southern China associated with ENSO regime shift. Geophysical Research Letters, 41(11), 4020–4026.
Zhang, Q., Wang, Y., Singh, V. P., Gu, X., Kong, D., & Xiao, M. (2016). Impacts of ENSO and ENSO Modoki + A regimes on seasonal precipitation variations and possible underlying causes in the Huai River basin, China. Journal of Hydrology, 533, 308–319.