Representation, Propagation, and Decision Issues in Risk Analysis Under Incomplete Probabilistic Information

Risk Analysis - Tập 30 Số 3 - Trang 361-368 - 2010
Didier Dubois1,2
1IRIT-ADRIA - Argumentation, Décision, Raisonnement, Incertitude et Apprentissage (Institut de recherche en informatique de Toulouse - IRIT 118 Route de Narbonne 31062 Toulouse Cedex 9 - France)
2QUB - Queen's University [Belfast] (University Road, Belfast, BT7 1NN, Northern Ireland, UK - Ireland)

Tóm tắt

Từ khóa


Tài liệu tham khảo

Aven, 2010, On the need for restricting the probabilistic analysis in risk assessments to variability, Risk Analysis

Ferson, 1996, Different methods are needed to propagate ignorance and variability, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 54, 10.1016/S0951-8320(96)00071-3

3.  Ferson S , Kreinovich V , Ginzburg L , Myers DS , Sentz K . Constructing Probability Boxes and Dempster-Shafer Structures, sand2002-4015. Technical Report, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, 2002.

Dubois, 2009

5.  Walley P . Statistical Reasoning with Imprecise Probabilities. New York: Chapman and Hall, 1991.

Berger, 1994, An overview of robust Bayesian analysis, Test, 3, 10.1007/BF02562676

Dempster, 1967, Upper and lower probabilities induced by a multivalued mapping, Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 38, 10.1214/aoms/1177698950

Shafer, 1976, A Mathematical Theory of Evidence, 10.1515/9780691214696

9.  Dubois D , Prade H . Possibility Theory. New York: Plenum Press, 1988.

Dubois, 2006, Possibility theory and statistical reasoning, Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 51(1)

11.  Shafer G , Vovk V . Probability and Finance: It's Only a Game! New York: Wiley, 2001.

12.  Dubois D , Nguyen HT , Prade H . Possibility theory, probability and fuzzy sets: Misunderstandings, bridges and gaps. Pp. 343-438 in DuboisD, PradeH (eds). Fundamentals of Fuzzy Sets, The Handbooks of Fuzzy Sets Series. Boston, MA: Kluwer, 2000.

Dubois, 1997, The three semantics of fuzzy sets, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 90(2)

14.  Shackle GLS . Decision, Order and Time in Human Affairs, 2nd ed. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1961.

15.  Zadeh LA . Fuzzy sets as a basis for a theory of possibility. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 1978; 1:3-28.

16.  Hacking I . The Emergence of Probability. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1975.

17.  Edwards WF . Likelihood. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1972.

Dubois, 1996, Representing partial ignorance, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, 26(3)

Dubois, 2008, A definition of subjective possibility, International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 48, 10.1016/j.ijar.2007.01.005

Baudrit, 2006, Practical representations of incomplete probabilistic knowledge, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 51(1)

Baudrit, 2006, Joint propagation and exploitation of probabilistic and possibilistic information in risk assessment, IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems, 14, 10.1109/TFUZZ.2006.876720

Baudrit, 2007, Joint propagation of variability and imprecision in assessing the risk of groundwater contamination, Journal of Contaminant Hydrology, 93, 72, 10.1016/j.jconhyd.2007.01.015

Williamson, 1990, Probabilistic arithmetic I: Numerical methods for calculating convolutions and dependency bounds, International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 4, 10.1016/0888-613X(90)90022-T

24.  Nelsen RB . An introduction to copulas. Vol. 139, Lecture Notes in Statistics. New York: Springer-Verlag, 1999.

Dubois, 2000, Fundamentals of Fuzzy Sets, 483, 10.1007/978-1-4615-4429-6_11

Baudrit, 2005, In Proceedings of Fourth International Symposium on Imprecise Probabilities and Their Application (ISIPTA'05), 31

Destercke, 2008, Methods for the evaluation and synthesis of multiple sources of information applied to nuclear computer codes, Nuclear Engineering and Design, 238(9), 2484, 10.1016/j.nucengdes.2008.02.003

Bellenfant, 2009, Uncertainty theories applied to the analysis of CO2 plume extension and pressure build up during geological storage, In Workshop on Modeling and Risk Assessment of Geological Storage of CO2

Chateauneuf, 2009, Decision-Making Process-Concepts and Methods

Troffaes, 2007, Decision making under uncertainty using imprecise probabilities, International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 45(1)

Gilboa, 1989, Maxmin expected utility with a non-unique prior, Journal of Mathematical Economics, 18, 10.1016/0304-4068(89)90018-9

Jaffray, 1989, Linear utility theory for belief functions, Operations Research Letters, 8, 10.1016/0167-6377(89)90010-2

33.  Guyonnet D , Bellenfant G , Bouc O . Soft methods for treating uncertainties: Applications in the field of environmental risks. Pp. 16-26 in DuboisD, LubianoMA, Prade H , GilMA, GrzegorzewskiP, HryniewiczO (eds). SMPS, Vol. 48, Advances in Soft Computing. Berlin: Springer, 2008.