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Phân loại khu vực của hạn hán cực đoan ở Iran
Acta Geophysica - Trang 1-25 - 2023
Tóm tắt
Trong các vùng khô hạn và bán khô hạn như Iran, sự phát triển đô thị và nông nghiệp bền vững gắn liền với mức độ nghiêm trọng, tần suất và thời gian kéo dài của các đợt hạn mưa khí quyển. Những trận hạn mưa kéo dài có thể kích hoạt các hạn chế về thủy văn và xã hội - kinh tế, gây ra những thách thức nghiêm trọng cho sự bền vững của khu vực. Do đó, mục tiêu chính của nghiên cứu này là tiến hành Phân tích Tần suất Khu vực (RFA) toàn diện cho các sự kiện hạn mưa khí quyển cực đoan trên khắp Iran. Để đạt được điều này, chúng tôi đã tính toán một cách tỉ mỉ mức độ nghiêm trọng, thời gian và cường độ của Chỉ số Lượng mưa Chuẩn hóa (SPI) trong các khoảng thời gian tích lũy 3, 6, 9 và 12 tháng. Dữ liệu được thu thập từ các hồ sơ lượng mưa hàng tháng tại 106 trạm khí tượng trong khoảng thời gian từ 1993 đến 2016. Sau đó, chúng tôi đã áp dụng một phương pháp nghiêm ngặt, sử dụng phân tích phân cụm Ward và kiểm tra tính không đồng nhất bằng L-moment, để phân loại và phân nhóm các đặc điểm hạn khắc nghiệt trên toàn quốc một cách hiệu quả. Phân tích cho thấy rằng các mô hình phân phối Pareto tổng quát và Pearson loại 3 là những chức năng phân phối phù hợp nhất cho RFA ở hầu hết tất cả các cụm được khảo sát. Thêm vào đó, phân tích thời gian - không gian của chuỗi SPI ở nhiều thang thời gian cho thấy rằng các đặc điểm của các sự kiện cực đoan, chẳng hạn như mức độ nghiêm trọng, thời gian và cường độ, vẫn không bị ảnh hưởng đáng kể bởi điều kiện khí hậu địa phương. Kết quả cũng cho thấy rằng ngay cả ở các vùng thường có độ ẩm nằm ở phía bắc, phía tây và tây bắc của Iran, những khu vực nhận lượng mưa hàng năm đáng kể, hạn hán nghiêm trọng vẫn có thể xảy ra. Những trận hạn này chủ yếu xuất phát từ các sự kiện tạm thời thay vì chỉ phụ thuộc vào điều kiện khí hậu địa phương. Do đó, nghiên cứu kết luận rằng các sự kiện hạn có thể phần lớn được quy cho việc quản lý kém và phân bổ nước không đủ ở khu vực. Hơn nữa, những tình huống này có thể đã trở nên trầm trọng hơn bởi sự xuất hiện của các điều kiện khí hậu cực đoan.
Từ khóa
#hạn hán #khí quyển #RFA #chỉ số lượng mưa chuẩn hóa #phân tích tần suất #IranTài liệu tham khảo
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