Reconciling intergenerational conflicts with imaginary future generations: evidence from a participatory deliberation practice in a municipality in Japan
Tóm tắt
Coping with intergenerational conflicts is one of the fundamental keys to building a sustainable society. However, current decision-making systems tend to be inclined towards the preferences of present generations, simply because future generations do not yet exist and therefore cannot participate in present-day negotiating processes. In this paper, with an aim towards reconciling possible intergenerational conflicts, we present the first attempt at creating a participatory intergenerational deliberation practice by creating “imaginary future generation” groups to represent future generations and negotiate with present-generation groups regarding future visions and associated decision making. To accomplish this, a series of workshops were organized in a local municipality in Japan in which participating imaginary future-generation groups and present-generation groups first deliberated separately, and then worked together, to form a consensus over prioritizing policy measures associated with their separate visions of the municipality in 2060. We then analyzed deliberation and consensus-building processes used and observed a stark contrast in deliberation styles and priorities between the groups. For example, imaginary future-generation-group measures were primarily characterized by utilizing existing local resources, while the present-generation groups aimed more at solving current problems. Notably, the consensus-building processes resulted in choosing more than half of the measures originally proposed by the imaginary future-generation groups, thereby indicating that decision-making preferences had shifted to future generations. We contend that our approach, which is based on introducing imaginary future-generation groups as stakeholders, could provide indicators towards coping with intergenerational conflicts via present-day decision-making processes.
Tài liệu tham khảo
Carlsson-Kanyama A, Dreborg KH, Moll HC, Padovan D (2008) Participative backcasting: a tool for involving stakeholders in local sustainability planning. Futures 40:34–46
Clark WC, Dickson NM (2003) Sustainability science: the emerging research program. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 100(14):8059–8061
Demeny P (1986) Pronatalist polices in low-fertility countries: patterns, performance, and prospects. Popul Dev Rev 12(supplement):335–358
Eames M, Egmose J (2011) Community foresight for urban sustainability: insights from the Citizens Science for Sustainability (SuScit) project. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 78(5):769–784
Eickhoff P, Geffer SG (2009) Power of imagination studio: a further development of the futureworkshop concept. In: Holman P, Devane T, Cady S (eds) The change handbook: the definitive resource on today’s best methods for engaging whole systems. Berrett-Koehler Publishers, San Francisco, pp 27–35
Fehr-Duda H, Fehr E (2016) Sustainability: game human nature. Nature 530:413–415
Fischbacher U, Gächter S, Fehr E (2001) Are people conditionally cooperative? Evidence from a public goods experiment. Econ Lett 71:397–404
Hara K (2016) Participatory future design in pursuit of sustainability. Des Eng 51(5):297–302 (In Japanese)
Hara K, Saijo T (2017) Future design: evidence and insights from participatory deliberations. J Jpn Soc Water Environ 40(4):112–116 (In Japanese)
Hara K, Saijo T, Kurimoto S, Kishita Y, Uwasu M, Fuchigami Y (2015) Will people’s perceptions and judgements change in view of future generations? Evidence from a questionnaire survey. In: Proceedings of EcoDesign 2015 international symposium, pp 105–107
Hara K, Kumazawa T, Kimura M, Tsuda K (2016a) Participatory approach in vision setting: emerging initiatives in local municipalities in Japan. Sustain Sci 11(3):493–503
Hara K, Kumazawa T, Kimura M, Tsuda K (2016b) Participatory approach in vision setting: emerging initiatives in local municipalities in Japan. Sustain Sci 11(3):493–503
Iacovidou E, Wehrmeyer W (2014) Making sense of the future: visions and transition pathways of laypeople and professionals from six EU countries. Global Bioeth 25(4):211–225
Innes J, Booher D (2003) Collaborative policy making: governance through dialogue. In: Hajer M, Wagenaar H (eds) Deliberative policy analysis: understanding governance in the network society. Cambridge University Press, New York, pp 33–59
Kamijo Y, Hizen Y, Saijo T (2015) Hearing the voice of future generations: a laboratory experiment of Demeny voting. Kochi University of Technology, Social Design Engineering Series, SDES-2015-8. http://www.souken.kochi-tech.ac.jp/seido/wp/SDES-2015-8.pdf. Accessed 23 Sept 2017
Kamijo Y, Komiya A, Mifune N, Saijo T (2017) Negotiating with the future: incorporating imaginary future generations into negotiations. Sustain Sci 12(3):409–420
Kates RW, Clark WC, Corell R, Hall JM, Jaeger CC et al (2001) Sustainability science. Science 292(5517):641–642
Kishita Y, Hara K, Uwasu M, Umeda Y (2016) Research needs and challenges faced in supporting scenario design in sustainability science: a literature review. Sustain Sci 11(2):331–347
Komiyama H, Takeuchi K (2006) Sustainability science: building a new discipline. Sustain Sci 1(1):1–6
Kumazawa T, Kozaki K, Matsui T, Saito O, Ohta M, Hara K, Uwasu M, Kimura M, Mizoguchi R (2014) Initial design process of the sustainability science ontology for supporting co-deliberation. Sustain Sci 9(2):173–192
Kuzmanovic M, Gaffney N (2017) Enacting futures in postnormal times. Futures 86:107–117
Ligtvoet A, Cuppen E, Ruggero OD, Hemmes K, Pesch U, Quist J, Mehos D (2016) New future perspectives through constructive conflict: exploring the future of gas in the Netherlands. Futures 78–79:19–33
Nakagawa Y, Hara K, Saijo T (2017) Becoming sympathetic to the needs of future generations: a phenomenological study of participation in future design workshops, Kochi University of Technology, Social Design Engineering Series, SDES-2017-4. http://www.souken.kochi-tech.ac.jp/seido/wp/SDES-2017-4.pdf. Accessed 23 Sept 2017
Nakagawa Y, Kotani K, Matsumoto M, Saijo T (2019) Intergenerational retrospective viewpoints and individual policy preferences for future: a deliberative experiment for forest management. Futures 105:40–53
Oliver WM (2008) Mental time travel: a practical business and personal research tool for looking ahead. Futures 40:17–24
Quist J, Vergragt P (2006) Past and future of backcasting: the shift to stakeholder participation and a proposal for a methodological framework. Futures 38:1027–1045
Robinson JB (2003) Future subjunctive: backcasting as social learning. Futures 35:839–856
Saijo T (2017) Future design. Econ Rev 68(1):33–45 (In Japanese)
Saijo T (ed) (2018) Future design: incorporating preferences of future generations for sustainability. Springer, Berlin
Saijo T (2019) Future design. In: Moulin H (ed) Future of economic design. Springer, Berlin
Sandström C, Carlsson-Kanyama A, Lindahl KB, Sonnek KM, Mossing A, Nordin A, Nordström E-M, Räty R (2016) Understanding consistencies and gaps between desired forest futures: an analysis of visions from stakeholder groups in Sweden. Ambio 45:100–108
Sapolsky RM (2012) Super humanity. Sci Am 307(3):40–43
Schneider F, Rist S (2014) Envisioning sustainable water futures in a transdisciplinary learning process: combining normative, explorative, and participatory scenario approaches. Sustain Sci 9:463–481
Shahrier S, Kotani K, Saijo T (2017) Intergenerational sustainability dilemma and the degree of capitalism in societies: a field experiment. Sustain Sci 12(6):957–967
Sherstyuk K, Tarui N, Ravago MV, Saijo T (2016) Intergenerational games with dynamic externalities and climate change experiments. J Assoc Environ Res Econ 3(2):247–281
Wiek A, Iwaniec D (2014) Quality criteria for visions and visioning in sustainability science. Sustain Sci 9:497–512
World Commission on Environment and Development (1987) Our common future. Oxford University Press, New York