Recent global land cover dynamics and implications for soil erosion and carbon losses from deforestation

Alkama, 2016, Biophysical climate impacts of recent changes in global forest cover, Science, 351, 600, 10.1126/science.aac8083 Arsanjani, 2013, Spatiotemporal simulation of urban growth patterns using agent-based modeling: the case of Tehran, Cities, 32, 33, 10.1016/j.cities.2013.01.005 Arsanjani, 2018, Development of a cellular automata model using open source technologies for monitoring urbanisation in the global south: The case of Maputo, Mozambique, Habitat Int., 71, 38, 10.1016/j.habitatint.2017.11.003 Baccini, 2017, Tropical forests are a net carbon source based on aboveground measurements of gain and loss, Science, 358, 230, 10.1126/science.aam5962 Bagarello, 2017, Predicting maximum annual values of event soil loss by USLE-type models, Catena, 155, 10, 10.1016/j.catena.2017.03.002 Bailey, 2016, Land-cover change within and around protected areas in a biodiversity hotspot, J. Land Use Sci., 11, 154, 10.1080/1747423X.2015.1086905 Barlow, 2016, Anthropogenic disturbance in tropical forests can double biodiversity loss from deforestation, Nature, 535, 144, 10.1038/nature18326 Bayer, 2020, Diverging land-use projections cause large variability in their impacts on ecosystems and related indicators for ecosystem services, Earth Syst. Dyn. Discuss., 1 Bestelmeyer, 2015, Desertification, land use, and the transformation of global drylands, Front. Ecol. Environ., 13, 28, 10.1890/140162 Betts, 2017, Global forest loss disproportionately erodes biodiversity in intact landscapes, Nature, 547, 441, 10.1038/nature23285 Bonan, 2008, Forests and climate change: forcings, feedbacks, and the climate benefits of forests, Science, 320, 1444, 10.1126/science.1155121 Borrelli, 2017, An assessment of the global impact of 21st century land use change on soil erosion, Nat. Commun., 8, 1, 10.1038/s41467-017-02142-7 Borrelli, 2020, Land use and climate change impacts on global soil erosion by water (2015-2070), Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 117, 21994, 10.1073/pnas.2001403117 Brandt, 2018, Satellite-observed major greening and biomass increase in South China karst during recent decade, Earths Future, 6, 1017, 10.1029/2018EF000890 C3S, 2019 Cakir, 2008, Evaluating urbanization, fragmentation and land Use/Land cover change pattern in Istanbul City, Turkey from 1971 to 2002, Land Degrad. Dev., 19, 663, 10.1002/ldr.859 Ceccherini, 2020, Abrupt increase in harvested forest area over Europe after 2015, Nature, 583, 72, 10.1038/s41586-020-2438-y Chen, 2019, The spatial association of ecosystem services with land use and land cover change at the county level in China, 1995–2015, Sci. Total Environ., 669, 459, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.139 Chen, 2020, Global land use for 2015–2100 at 0.05° resolution under diverse socioeconomic and climate scenarios, Sci. Data, 7, 1, 10.1038/s41597-020-00669-x Cherubini, 2016, Global spatially explicit CO 2 emission metrics for forest bioenergy, Sci. Rep., 6, 1, 10.1038/srep20186 Cherubini, 2018, Quantifying the climate response to extreme land cover changes in Europe with a regional model, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 10.1088/1748-9326/aac794 Cherubini, 2018, Climate impacts of retention forestry in a Swedish boreal pine forest, J. Land Use Sci., 13, 301, 10.1080/1747423X.2018.1529831 Debanshi, 2020, Wetland delineation simulation and prediction in deltaic landscape, Ecol. Indic., 108, 10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.105757 Defourny, 2009 Di Gregorio, 2016 Don, 2011, Impact of tropical land‐use change on soil organic carbon stocks–a meta‐analysis, Glob. Chang. Biol., 17, 1658, 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02336.x Duarte-Guardia, 2019, Better estimates of soil carbon from geographical data: a revised global approach, Mitig. Adapt. Strateg. Glob. Chang., 24, 355, 10.1007/s11027-018-9815-y Duveiller, 2018, The mark of vegetation change on Earth’s surface energy balance, Nat. Commun., 9, 679, 10.1038/s41467-017-02810-8 Duveiller, 2020, Local biophysical effects of land use and land cover change: towards an assessment tool for policy makers, Land Use Policy, 91, 10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.104382 Ellis, 2008, Putting people in the map: anthropogenic biomes of the world, Front. Ecol. Environ., 6, 439, 10.1890/070062 Englund, 2020, Beneficial land use change: strategic expansion of new biomass plantations can reduce environmental impacts from EU agriculture, Glob. Environ. Change, 60, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101990 ESA, 2017 Feng, 2016, Revegetation in China’s Loess Plateau is approaching sustainable water resource limits, Nat. Clim. Chang., 6, 1019, 10.1038/nclimate3092 Feng, 2020, Trading-off ecosystem services for better ecological restoration: a case study in the Loess Plateau of China, J. Clean. Prod., 257, 10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.120469 Folberth, 2020, The global cropland-sparing potential of high-yield farming, Nat. Sustain., 3, 281, 10.1038/s41893-020-0505-x Foley, 2005, Global consequences of land use, Science, 309, 570, 10.1126/science.1111772 Friedlingstein, 2019, Global carbon budget 2019, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1783, 10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019 Ghosh, 2018, Analyzing risk factors for shrinkage and transformation of East Kolkata Wetland, India, Spat. Inf. Res., 26, 661, 10.1007/s41324-018-0212-0 Grau, 2005, Agriculture expansion and deforestation in seasonally dry forests of north-west Argentina, Environ. Conserv., 32, 140, 10.1017/S0376892905002092 Green, 2017, Creating a safe operating space for wetlands in a changing climate, Front. Ecol. Environ., 15, 99, 10.1002/fee.1459 Guo, 2002, Soil carbon stocks and land use change: a meta analysis, Glob. Chang. Biol., 8, 345, 10.1046/j.1354-1013.2002.00486.x Hansen, 2013, High-resolution global maps of 21st-century forest cover change, science, 342, 850, 10.1126/science.1244693 Harris, 2012, Baseline map of carbon emissions from deforestation in tropical regions, Science, 336, 1573, 10.1126/science.1217962 Hong, 2020, Divergent responses of soil organic carbon to afforestation, Nat. Sustain., 3, 694, 10.1038/s41893-020-0557-y Hou, 2019, Data fusion and accuracy analysis of multi-source land Use/Land cover datasets along coastal areas of the maritime silk road, ISPRS Int. J. Geoinf., 8, 557, 10.3390/ijgi8120557 Houghton, 2017, Global and regional fluxes of carbon from land use and land cover change 1850–2015, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 31, 456, 10.1002/2016GB005546 Hu, 2019, Impacts of idealized land cover changes on climate extremes in Europe, Ecol. Indic., 104, 626, 10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.05.037 Hu, 2020, Overview of recent land cover changes in biodiversity hotspots, Front. Ecol. Environ., 7 Hua, 2018, Spatial consistency assessments for global land-cover datasets: a comparison among GLC2000, CCI LC, MCD12, GLOBCOVER and GLCNMO, Remote Sens. (Basel), 10, 1846, 10.3390/rs10111846 Huang, 2020, Predominant regional biophysical cooling from recent land cover changes in Europe, Nat. Commun., 11, 1 Huang, 2020, Effects of climate, land use and land cover changes on soil loss in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, China, Geography and Sustainability, 1, 200, 10.1016/j.geosus.2020.08.001 Hurtt, 2011, Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500-2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands, Clim. Change, 109, 117, 10.1007/s10584-011-0153-2 Hurtt, 2020, Harmonization of global land-use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6, Geosci. Model. Dev. Discuss., 1 Iordan, 2018, Contribution of forest wood products to negative emissions: historical comparative analysis from 1960 to 2015 in Norway, Sweden and Finland, Carbon Balance Manag., 13, 12, 10.1186/s13021-018-0101-9 IPCC, 2019, Summary for Policymakers Jaimes, 2010, Exploring the driving forces behind deforestation in the state of Mexico (Mexico) using geographically weighted regression, Appl. Geogr., 30, 576, 10.1016/j.apgeog.2010.05.004 Keenan, 2015, Dynamics of global forest area: results from the FAO global forest resources assessment 2015, For. Ecol. Manage., 352, 9, 10.1016/j.foreco.2015.06.014 Klein Goldewijk, 2017, Anthropogenic land use estimates for the Holocene–HYDE 3.2, Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., 9, 927, 10.5194/essd-9-927-2017 Krause, 2009 Kuemmerle, 2016, Hotspots of land use change in Europe, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 10.1088/1748-9326/11/6/064020 Lamchin, 2016, Assessment of land cover change and desertification using remote sensing technology in a local region of Mongolia, Adv. Space Res., 57, 64, 10.1016/j.asr.2015.10.006 Le Quéré, 2016 Leirpoll, 2021, Optimal combination of bioenergy and solar photovoltaic for renewable energy production on abandoned cropland, Renew. Energy, 168, 45, 10.1016/j.renene.2020.11.159 Lejeune, 2018, Historical deforestation locally increased the intensity of hot days in northern mid-latitudes, Nat. Clim. Chang., 8, 386, 10.1038/s41558-018-0131-z Lepers, 2005, A synthesis of information on rapid land-cover change for the period 1981-2000, Bioscience, 55, 115, 10.1641/0006-3568(2005)055[0115:ASOIOR]2.0.CO;2 Lesiv, 2018, Spatial distribution of arable and abandoned land across former Soviet Union countries, Sci. Data, 5, 10.1038/sdata.2018.56 Li, 2016, Major forest changes and land cover transitions based on plant functional types derived from the ESA CCI Land Cover product, Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinf., 47, 30, 10.1016/j.jag.2015.12.006 Li, 2018, Gross and net land cover changes in the main plant functional types derived from the annual ESA CCI land cover maps (1992-2015), Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 219, 10.5194/essd-10-219-2018 Liang, 2019, Accuracy evaluation and consistency analysis of four global land cover products in the Arctic Region, Remote Sens. (Basel), 11, 1396, 10.3390/rs11121396 Liu, 2018, Comparison of country-level cropland areas between ESA-CCI land cover maps and FAOSTAT data, Int. J. Remote Sens., 39, 6631, 10.1080/01431161.2018.1465613 Liu, 2018, Identifying patterns and hotspots of global land cover transitions using the ESA CCI Land Cover dataset, Remote. Sens. Lett., 9, 972, 10.1080/2150704X.2018.1500070 Mcelwee, 2020, The impact of interventions in the global land and agri‐food sectors on nature’s contributions to people and the UN sustainable development goals, Glob. Chang. Biol., 26, 4691, 10.1111/gcb.15219 Montgomery, 2007, Soil erosion and agricultural sustainability, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., 104, 13268, 10.1073/pnas.0611508104 Mousivand, 2019, Insights on the historical and emerging global land cover changes: the case of ESA-CCI-LC datasets, Appl. Geogr., 106, 82, 10.1016/j.apgeog.2019.03.010 Næss, 2021, The land–energy–water nexus of global bioenergy potentials from abandoned cropland, Nat. Sustain., 10.1038/s41893-020-00680-5 Nearing, 2017, Natural and anthropogenic rates of soil erosion, Int. Soil Water Conserv. Res., 5, 77, 10.1016/j.iswcr.2017.04.001 Nearing, 2017, Rainfall erosivity: an historical review, Catena, 157, 357, 10.1016/j.catena.2017.06.004 Nowosad, 2019, Global assessment and mapping of changes in mesoscale landscapes: 1992-2015, Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinf., 78, 332, 10.1016/j.jag.2018.09.013 Pan, 2011, A large and persistent carbon sink in the world’s forests, Science, 333, 988, 10.1126/science.1201609 Peng, 2014, Afforestation in China cools local land surface temperature, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 111, 2915, 10.1073/pnas.1315126111 Pérez-Hoyos, 2017, Comparison of global land cover datasets for cropland monitoring, Remote Sens. (Basel), 9, 1118, 10.3390/rs9111118 Piao, 2009, The carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in China, Nature, 458, 1009, 10.1038/nature07944 Poulter, 2015, Plant functional type classification for earth system models: results from the European Space Agency’s Land Cover Climate Change Initiative, Geosci. Model. Dev., 8, 2315, 10.5194/gmd-8-2315-2015 Prestele, 2017, Current challenges of implementing anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change in models contributing to climate change assessments, Earth Syst. Dyn., 8, 369, 10.5194/esd-8-369-2017 Qin, 2019, Improved estimates of forest cover and loss in the Brazilian Amazon in 2000–2017, Nat. Sustain., 2, 764, 10.1038/s41893-019-0336-9 Ramankutty, 2007, Challenges to estimating carbon emissions from tropical deforestation, Glob. Chang. Biol., 13, 51, 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01272.x Rezende, 2018, From hotspot to hopespot: an opportunity for the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, Perspect. Ecol. Conserv., 16, 208 Risse, 1993, Error assessment in the universal soil loss equation, Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J., 57, 825, 10.2136/sssaj1993.03615995005700030032x Seneviratne, 2018, Land radiative management as contributor to regional-scale climate adaptation and mitigation, Nat. Geosci., 11, 88, 10.1038/s41561-017-0057-5 Seto, 2012, Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 109, 16083, 10.1073/pnas.1211658109 Smith, 2020, Which practices co‐deliver food security, climate change mitigation and adaptation, and combat land degradation and desertification?, Glob. Chang. Biol., 26, 1532, 10.1111/gcb.14878 Song, 2012, Wetlands shrinkage, fragmentation and their links to agriculture in the Muleng-Xingkai Plain, China, J. Environ. Manage., 111, 120, 10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.06.038 Song, 2018, Global land change from 1982 to 2016, Nature, 560, 639, 10.1038/s41586-018-0411-9 Spawn, 2020 Spawn, 2019, Carbon emissions from cropland expansion in the United States, Environ. Res. Lett., 14, 10.1088/1748-9326/ab0399 Spawn, 2020, Harmonized global maps of above and belowground biomass carbon density in the year 2010, Sci. Data, 7, 1, 10.1038/s41597-020-0444-4 Stolpe, 2005, A comparison of the RUSLE, EPIC and WEPP erosion models as calibrated to climate and soil of south-central Chile, Acta Agric. Scand. B Soil Plant Sci., 55, 2 Strassburg, 2020, Global priority areas for ecosystem restoration, Nature, 1 Tarolli, 2020, Agriculture in Hilly and mountainous landscapes: threats, monitoring and sustainable management, Geog. Sust. Tolessa, 2017, The impact of land use/land cover change on ecosystem services in the central highlands of Ethiopia, Ecosyst. Serv., 23, 47, 10.1016/j.ecoser.2016.11.010 Tschora, 2020, Co-benefits and trade-offs of agroforestry for climate change mitigation and other sustainability goals in West Africa, Glob. Ecol. Conserv., 22 Turner, 2007, The emergence of land change science for global environmental change and sustainability, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., 104, 20666, 10.1073/pnas.0704119104 Uchida, 2014, Biodiversity declines due to abandonment and intensification of agricultural lands: patterns and mechanisms, Ecol. Monogr., 84, 637, 10.1890/13-2170.1 Venäläinen, 2020, Climate change induces multiple risks to boreal forests and forestry in Finland: A literature review, Glob. Chang. Biol., 26, 4178, 10.1111/gcb.15183 Verburg, 2011, Challenges in using land use and land cover data for global change studies, Glob. Chang. Biol., 17, 974, 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02307.x Veron, 2006, Assessing desertification, J. Arid Environ., 66, 751, 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2006.01.021 Werner, 2013, Evidence for 20th century climate warming and wetland drying in the N orth A merican P rairie P othole R egion, Ecol. Evol., 3, 3471, 10.1002/ece3.731 Xu, 2019, Hidden loss of wetlands in China, Curr. Biol., 29, e2 Yang, 2017, Accuracy assessment of seven global land cover datasets over China, ISPRS J. Photogramm. Remote. Sens., 125, 156, 10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2017.01.016 Zarin, 2012, Carbon from tropical deforestation, Science, 336, 1518, 10.1126/science.1223251 Zhu, 2016, Greening of the Earth and its drivers, Nat. Clim. Chang., 6, 10.1038/nclimate3004