Phản ứng của Thị trường Chứng khoán Toàn cầu Trước Cuộc Chiến Nga - Ukraine: Bằng Chứng Thực Nghiệm

Emon Kalyan Chowdhury1, Iffat Ishrat Khan1
1CIU Business School, Chittagong Independent University, Chattogram, Bangladesh

Tóm tắt

Nghiên cứu này đo lường tác động ngay lập tức của cuộc chiến Nga-Ukraine đối với các thị trường chứng khoán toàn cầu trong bốn tháng đầu tiên kể từ khi Nga thực hiện cuộc xâm lược đầu tiên vào ngày 24 tháng 2 năm 2022. Các chỉ số chứng khoán đóng cửa hàng ngày đã được sử dụng từ các thị trường chứng khoán được chọn ở sáu châu lục khác nhau. Bằng cách áp dụng phương pháp nghiên cứu sự kiện, nghiên cứu này nhận thấy tác động hỗn hợp trên các thị trường chứng khoán khác nhau. Mô hình Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH 1,1) chỉ ra sự hiện diện của độ biến động đáng kể và hiệu ứng đòn bẩy trong tất cả các thị trường. Các ước lượng hồi quy cho thấy tác động tích cực đáng kể của chỉ số VIX và tác động tiêu cực của giá dầu đối với lợi nhuận bất thường của các thị trường chứng khoán toàn cầu. Đa dạng hóa nguồn cung và nguồn năng lượng, tăng tốc triển khai các nguồn năng lượng tái tạo và thúc đẩy các phương tiện và máy móc điện có thể mang lại kết quả tích cực cho thị trường tài chính. Nghiên cứu này kỳ vọng sẽ cung cấp cho các nhà hoạch định chính sách, cơ quan quản lý, nhà đầu tư và tất cả các bên liên quan những hướng dẫn chính xác để xử lý tác động ngay lập tức của cuộc chiến đối với giá cổ phiếu và xây dựng các chiến lược thích hợp để giữ cho đầu tư không bị rủi ro và bất định.

Từ khóa

#chiến tranh Nga-Ukraine #thị trường chứng khoán toàn cầu #biến động #tác động kinh tế #phân tích hồi quy

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