RUSEM: A numerical model for policymaking and climate applications

Ecological Economics - Tập 165 - Trang 106403 - 2019
Andres Navarro1, Francisco J. Tapiador1
1Institute of Environmental Sciences (ICAM), University of Castilla–La Mancha, 45004 Toledo, Spain

Tài liệu tham khảo

Åberg-Bengtsson, 2009, The smaller the better? A review of research on small rural schools in Sweden, Int. J. Educ. Res., 48, 100, 10.1016/j.ijer.2009.02.007 Ackerman, 2009, Limitations of integrated assessment models of climate change, Clim. Chang., 95, 297, 10.1007/s10584-009-9570-x Adger, 2005, 15, 77 Agarwal, 2009, Measuring the determinants of relative economic performance of rural areas, J. Rural. Stud., 25, 309, 10.1016/j.jrurstud.2009.02.003 Allan, 2007, Developing sustainable models of rural health care: a community development approach, Rural Remote Health, 7, 818 Alston, 2004, “You don’t want to be a check-out chick all your life”: the out-migration of young people from Australia’s small rural towns, Australian Journal of Social Issues (Australian Council of Social Service), 39, 299, 10.1002/j.1839-4655.2004.tb01178.x Amable, 2011, Unemployment in the OECD, Oxf. Rev. Econ. Policy, 27, 207, 10.1093/oxrep/grr019 Amcoff, 2007, Understanding rural change—demography as a key to the future, Futures, 39, 363, 10.1016/j.futures.2006.08.009 Argent, 2008, Rural youth migration trends in Australia: an overview of recent trends and two inland case studies, Geogr. Res., 46, 139, 10.1111/j.1745-5871.2008.00505.x Ashley, 2001, Rethinking rural development, Development Policy Review, 19, 395, 10.1111/1467-7679.00141 Bagley, 2011, Village schools in England: at the heart of their community?, Aust. J. Educ., 55, 10.1177/000494411105500105 Ballas, 2005, SimBritain: a spatial microsimulation approach to population dynamics, Popul. Space Place, 11, 13, 10.1002/psp.351 Ballas, 2005, Building a dynamic spatial microsimulation model for Ireland, Popul. Space Place, 11, 157, 10.1002/psp.359 Barakat, 2014, A ‘Recipe for Depopulation’? School closures and local population decline in Saxony, Popul. Space Place, 21, 735, 10.1002/psp.1853 Barlas, 1989, Multiple tests for validation of system dynamics type of simulation models, Eur. J. Oper. Res., 42, 59, 10.1016/0377-2217(89)90059-3 Bell, 2011, Young people and the great recession, Oxf. Rev. Econ. Policy, 27, 241, 10.1093/oxrep/grr011 Bell, 2016, Scaling up pro-environmental agricultural practice using agglomeration payments: proof of concept from an agent-based model, Ecol. Econ., 126, 32, 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.03.002 Bhatasara, 2015, Debating sociology and climate change, J. Integr. Environ. Sci., 12, 217, 10.1080/1943815X.2015.1108342 Bijker, 2012, More than counter-urbanisation: migration to popular and less-popular rural areas in the Netherlands, Popul. Space Place, 18, 643, 10.1002/psp.687 Bloom, 2007, Demographic change, social security systems, and savings, J. Monet. Econ., 54, 92, 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2006.12.004 Bontkes, 1993, Dynamics of rural development in southern Sudan, Syst. Dyn. Rev., 9, 1, 10.1002/sdr.4260090102 Bosworth, 2012, Characterising rural businesses – tales from the paperman, Journal of Rural Studies, Growing Old in Rural Places, 28, 499 Boyle, 2012, Independently owned pharmacy closures in rural America, Rural Policy Brief, 1 Brown, 2008 Brown, 1997, Continuities in size of place preferences in the United States, 1972–19921, Rural. Sociol., 62, 408, 10.1111/j.1549-0831.1997.tb00657.x Bryden, 2000, Rural employment in industrialised countries, Agric. Econ., 22, 185, 10.1111/j.1574-0862.2000.tb00017.x Burholt, 2012, Research on rural ageing: where have we got to and where are we going in Europe?, J. Rural. Stud., 28, 432, 10.1016/j.jrurstud.2012.01.009 Calmfors, 2001, Unemployment, labour market reform, and monetary union, J. Labour Econ., 19, 265, 10.1086/319561 Caschili, 2015, Accessibility and rurality indicators for regional development, Comput. Environ. Urban. Syst., 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2014.05.005 Casey, 2002, Pharmacy services in rural areas: is the problem geographic access or financial access?, J. Rural. Health, 18, 467, 10.1111/j.1748-0361.2002.tb00911.x Cavana, 2006, Demonstrating the utility of system dynamics for public policy analysis in New Zealand: the case of excise tax policy on tobacco, Syst. Dyn. Rev., 22, 321, 10.1002/sdr.347 Cavaye, 2001, Rural community development: new challenges and enduring dilemmas, Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, 31, 109 Cawley, 1994, Desertification: measuring population decline in rural Ireland, J. Rural. Stud., 10, 395, 10.1016/0743-0167(94)90049-3 Champion, 2006, Demographic change in rural England, 29 Champion, 2009, Migration and longer-distance commuting in rural England, Reg. Stud., 43, 1245, 10.1080/00343400802070902 Chiu, 1990, Nonlinear age-dependent models for prediction of population growth, Math. Biosci., 99, 119, 10.1016/0025-5564(90)90142-L Cole, 2008, Modelling human population change on Easter Island far-from-equilibrium, Quat. Int., 184, 150, 10.1016/j.quaint.2007.09.019 Collantes, 2011 Collantes, 2014, Reducing depopulation in rural Spain: the impact of immigration, Popul. Space Place, 20, 606, 10.1002/psp.1797 Collins, 2015, The integrated Earth System Model (iESM): formulation and functionality, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2203, 10.5194/gmd-8-2203-2015 Dawid, 2011, Agent-based models for economic policy design, Eastern Econ J, 37, 44, 10.1057/eej.2010.43 De Silva, 2018, Socioeconomic vulnerability to disaster risk: a case study of flood and drought impact in a rural Sri Lankan community, Ecol. Econ., 152, 131, 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.05.010 Deal, 2004, Spatial dynamic modeling and urban land use transformation: a simulation approach to assessing the costs of urban sprawl, Ecol. Econ., 51, 79, 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2004.04.008 Deprince, 2008, The effects of education on the natural rate of unemployment, Bus. Econ., 43, 45 Di Vittorio, 2014, From land use to land cover: restoring the afforestation signal in a coupled integrated assessment–earth system model and the implications for CMIP5 RCP simulations, Biogeosciences, 11, 6435, 10.5194/bg-11-6435-2014 Dietz, 2013, Reducing carbon-based energy consumption through changes in household behavior, Daedalus, 142, 78, 10.1162/DAED_a_00186 Dowling, 2009, Changes and challenges: key issues for Scottish rural schools and communities, Int. J. Educ. Res., 48, 129, 10.1016/j.ijer.2009.02.005 Duncombe, 2001, Retire to where? A discrete choice model of residential location, Int. J. Popul. Geogr., 7, 281, 10.1002/ijpg.227 Dunlap, 2001, Politics and environment in America: partisan and ideological cleavages in public support for environmentalism, Environmental Politics, 10, 23, 10.1080/714000580 Dyer, 2011, The corn price surge: impacts on rural Mexico, World Dev., 39, 1878, 10.1016/j.worlddev.2011.04.032 Eberlein, 2013, Precise modeling of aging populations: precise modeling of aging populations, Syst. Dyn. Rev., 29, 87, 10.1002/sdr.1497 Egelund, 2006, School closure: what are the consequences for the local society?, Scand. J. Educ. Res., 50, 429, 10.1080/00313830600823787 Erickson, 2000, Resource use, institutions, and sustainability: a tale of two Pacific Island cultures, Land Econ., 76, 345, 10.2307/3147033 Eskinasi, 2009, Simulating urban transformation in Haaglanden, the Netherlands, Syst. Dyn. Rev., 25, 182, 10.1002/sdr.423 van Eupen, 2012, A rural typology for strategic European policies, Land Use Policy, 29, 473, 10.1016/j.landusepol.2011.07.007 Fallah-Fini, 2010, Optimizing highway maintenance operations: dynamic considerations, Syst. Dyn. Rev., 26, 216, 10.1002/sdr.449 Farmer, 2003, Dr. John has gone: assessing health professionals’ contribution to remote rural community sustainability in the UK, Soc. Sci. Med., 57, 673, 10.1016/S0277-9536(02)00410-0 Farmer, 2012, A theory of how rural health services contribute to community sustainability, Soc. Sci. Med., 75, 1903, 10.1016/j.socscimed.2012.06.035 Farrell, 2012, The rural as a return migration destination, European Countryside, 4, 31, 10.2478/v10091-012-0012-9 Farrington, 2005, Rural accessibility, social inclusion and social justice: towards conceptualisation, J. Transp. Geogr., 13, 1, 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2004.10.002 Faße, 2014, Bioenergy and rural development: the role of agroforestry in a Tanzanian village economy, Ecol. Econ., 106, 155, 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.07.018 Ferreira, 2009, First impressions of the reorganisation of the school network in Portugal, Eur. J. Educ., 44, 559, 10.1111/j.1465-3435.2009.01404.x Fielding, 2011, The impacts of environmental change on UK internal migration, S121 Fiorello, 2010, The ASTRA model for strategic assessment of transport policies, Syst. Dyn. Rev., 26, 283, 10.1002/sdr.452 Flato, 2011, Earth system models: an overview, WIREs Clim Change, 2, 783, 10.1002/wcc.148 Forrester, 1958, Industrial dynamics: a major breakthrough for decision makers, Harv. Bus. Rev., 36, 37 Forrester, 1978 Gabriel, 2002, Australia’s regional youth exodus, J. Rural. Stud., 18, 209, 10.1016/S0743-0167(01)00039-0 Garedew, 2012, A dynamic simulation model of land-use, population, and rural livelihoods in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia, Environ. Manag., 49, 151, 10.1007/s00267-011-9783-4 Glasgow, 2012, Rural ageing in the United States: trends and contexts, J. Rural. Stud., 28, 422, 10.1016/j.jrurstud.2012.01.002 Grigoryeva, 2012, The problem of youth unemployment in rural area, AGRIS On-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, 4, 3 Grimsrud, 2011, How well does the “Counter-Urbanisation Story” travel to other countries? The case of Norway, Popul. Space Place, 17, 642, 10.1002/psp.655 Groesser, 2012, Contributions to model validation: hierarchy, process, and cessation, Syst. Dyn. Rev., 28, 157, 10.1002/sdr.1466 Grundmann, 2010, Climate change: what role for sociology?: a response to Constance Lever-Tracy, Curr. Sociol., 58, 897, 10.1177/0011392110376031 Guerini, 2017, A method for agent-based models validation, J. Econ. Dyn. Control., 82, 125, 10.1016/j.jedc.2017.06.001 Halfacree, 2008, To revitalise counterurbanisation research? Recognising an international and fuller picture, Popul. Space Place, 14, 479, 10.1002/psp.501 Hannan, 1970 Happe, 2006, Agent-based analysis of agricultural policies: an illustration of the agriculutural policy simulator AgriPolis, its adaptation and behavior, Ecol. Soc., 11, 10.5751/ES-01741-110149 Harfoot, 2014, Integrated assessment models for ecologists: the present and the future, Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr., 23, 124, 10.1111/geb.12100 Hargreaves, 2009, Respect and responsibility: review of research on small rural schools in England, Int. J. Educ. Res., 48, 117, 10.1016/j.ijer.2009.02.004 Hatna, 2010, The Schelling model of ethnic residential dynamics: beyond the integrated - segregated dichotomy of patterns, JASSS, 15, 6, 10.18564/jasss.1873 Hayden, 2006, The inadequacy of Forrester system dynamics computer programs for institutional principles of hierarchy, feedback, and openness, Journal of Economic Issues, 40, 527, 10.1080/00213624.2006.11506932 Henderson, 2003, Rural isolation and the availability of hospital services, J. Rural. Stud., 19, 363, 10.1016/S0743-0167(03)00007-X Higgins, 1997, Age structure dynamics in Asia and dependence on foreign capital, Popul. Dev. Rev., 23, 261, 10.2307/2137546 Hinde, 1998 Hodge, 2002, Barriers to participation in residual rural labour markets, Work, Employment & Society, 16, 457, 10.1177/095001702762217434 Hoggart, 1997, Rural migration and counter-urbanization in the European periphery: the case of Andalucía, Sociol. Rural., 37, 134, 10.1111/1467-9523.00040 Hoggart, 2014 Homer, 2006, System dynamics modeling for public health: background and opportunities, Am. J. Public Health, 96, 452, 10.2105/AJPH.2005.062059 Homer, 2007, Chronic illness in a complex health economy: the perils and promises of downstream and upstream reforms, Syst. Dyn. Rev., 23, 313, 10.1002/sdr.379 van den Hove, 2000, Participatory approaches to environmental policy-making: the European Commission Climate Policy Process as a case study, Ecol. Econ., 33, 457, 10.1016/S0921-8009(99)00165-2 de Hoyos, 2011, Recruitment and retention issues in rural labour markets, J. Rural. Stud., 27, 171, 10.1016/j.jrurstud.2010.12.003 Hugo, 2011, Future demographic change and its interactions with migration and climate change, Glob. Environ. Chang., 21, S21, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.09.008 Isserman, 2009, Why some rural places prosper and others do not, Int. Reg. Sci. Rev., 32, 300, 10.1177/0160017609336090 Jackman, 1990, Labour market policies and unemployment in the OECD, Econ. Policy, 5, 450, 10.2307/1344483 Jin, 2009, Modeling a policy making framework for urban sustainability: incorporating system dynamics into the Ecological Footprint, Ecol. Econ., 68, 2938, 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2009.06.010 Jogo, 2010, Balancing the use of wetlands for economic well-being and ecological security: the case of the Limpopo wetland in southern Africa, Ecol. Econ., 69, 1569, 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2010.02.021 Jorgenson, 2006, Global warming and the neglected greenhouse gas: a cross-national study of the social causes of methane emissions intensity, 1995, Social Forces, 84, 1779, 10.1353/sof.2006.0050 Kapitza, 2010, On the theory of global population growth, Physics-Uspekhi, 53, 1287, 10.3367/UFNe.0180.201012g.1337 Kearns, 2010, School closures as breaches in the fabric of rural welfare: community perspectives from New Zealand, 219 Khalid, 1982, Public policy and rural poverty: a system dynamics analysis of a social change effort in Pakistan, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang., 21, 325, 10.1016/0040-1625(82)90044-0 Kilkenny, 1999 Kleijnen, 1995, Verification and validation of simulation models, Eur. J. Oper. Res., 82, 145, 10.1016/0377-2217(94)00016-6 Krutilla, 2006, The systems dynamics of endogenous population growth in a renewable resource-based growth model, Ecol. Econ., 56, 256, 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2005.02.002 Labrianidis, 2004 Lal, 2011, Socio-economic impacts of climate change on rural United States, Mitig. Adapt. Strateg. Glob. Chang., 16, 819, 10.1007/s11027-011-9295-9 Lamberson, 2012, Essay: tipping points, Quarterly Journal of Political Science, 7, 175, 10.1561/100.00011061 Lane, 2000, Should system dynamics be described as a‘hard’ or‘deterministic’ systems approach?, Syst. Res. Behav. Sci., 17, 3, 10.1002/(SICI)1099-1743(200001/02)17:1<3::AID-SRES344>3.0.CO;2-7 Li, 2013, Quantifying the role of fire in the Earth system – part 1: improved global fire modeling in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1), Biogeosciences, 10, 2293, 10.5194/bg-10-2293-2013 Li, 2019, Why some rural areas decline while some others not: An overview of rural evolution in the world., J. Rural. Stud., 68, 135, 10.1016/j.jrurstud.2019.03.003 Lindsay, 2003, Unemployment duration and employability in remote rural labour markets, J. Rural. Stud., 19, 187, 10.1016/S0743-0167(02)00067-0 Lippmann, 2009, Local labour market dynamics and self-employment in rural New England, Sociol. Spectr., 29, 371, 10.1080/02732170902761990 Lowe, 2007, Sustainable rural economies: some lessons from the English experience, Sust. Dev., 15, 307, 10.1002/sd.348 Mabogunje, 1970, Systems approach to a theory of rural-urban migration, Geogr. Anal., 2, 1, 10.1111/j.1538-4632.1970.tb00140.x Manne, 1995, MERGE. A model for evaluating regional and global effects of GHG reduction policies, Energy Policy, 23, 17, 10.1016/0301-4215(95)90763-W Manzo, 2014, Potentialities and limitations of agent-based simulations, 55, 653 Marsden, 2008, Rural development and the regional state: denying multifunctional agriculture in the UK, J. Rural. Stud., 24, 422, 10.1016/j.jrurstud.2008.04.001 McGranahan, 2008, Landscape influence on recent rural migration in the U.S, Landsc. Urban Plan., 85, 228, 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2007.12.001 McLeman, 2010, Migration in the context of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change: insights from analogues, WIREs Clim Change, 1, 450, 10.1002/wcc.51 Michalek, 2012, Application of the rural development index to analysis of rural regions in Poland and Slovakia, Soc. Indic. Res., 105, 1, 10.1007/s11205-010-9765-6 Midmore, 2000, Economics for sustainable rural systems, Ecol. Econ., 35, 173, 10.1016/S0921-8009(00)00195-6 Milbourne, 2007, Re-populating rural studies: migrations, movements and mobilities, J. Rural. Stud., 23, 381, 10.1016/j.jrurstud.2007.04.002 Morello, 2017, Policy instruments to control Amazon fires: a simulation approach, Ecol. Econ., 138, 199, 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.03.043 Moscovice, 2002, Rural hospitals: trends, challenges, and a future research and policy analysis agenda, J. Rural. Health, 18, 197, 10.1111/j.1748-0361.2002.tb00931.x Moseley, 1984, The revival of rural areas in advanced economies: a review of some causes and consequences, Geoforum, 15, 447, 10.1016/0016-7185(84)90050-2 Moseley, 2000, England’s village services in the late 1990s: entrepreneurialism, community involvement and the state, Town Plan. Rev., 71, 415, 10.3828/tpr.71.4.g123h87175v1kw4k Moseley, 2008, The future of services in rural England: the drivers of change and a scenario for 2015, Prog. Plan., 69, 93, 10.1016/j.progress.2007.12.002 Moss, 2010, The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment, Nature, 463, 747, 10.1038/nature08823 Motesharrei, 2014, Human and nature dynamics (HANDY): modeling inequality and use of resources in the collapse or sustainability of societies, Ecol. Econ., 101, 90, 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.02.014 Motesharrei, 2016, Modeling sustainability: population, inequality, consumption, and bidirectional coupling of the earth and human systems, Natl. Sci. Rev., 3 Nardo, 2005 Navarro, 2018, Improving the representation of anthropogenic CO2 emissions in climate models: impact of a new parameterization for the Community Earth System Model (CESM), Earth System Dynamics, 9, 1045, 10.5194/esd-9-1045-2018 Navarro, 2019, Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model, Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res., 26, 3184, 10.1007/s11356-017-0127-7 Neugart, 2004, Complicated dynamics in a flow model of the labour market, J. Econ. Behav. Organ., 53, 193, 10.1016/S0167-2681(03)00085-4 von Neumann, 1966 Ní Laoire, 2007, The ‘green green grass of home’? Return migration to rural Ireland, J. Rural. Stud., 23, 332, 10.1016/j.jrurstud.2007.01.005 Niedomysl, 2011, Is there hidden potential for rural population growth in Sweden?, Rural. Sociol., 76, 257, 10.1111/j.1549-0831.2010.00032.x Nordhaus, 1993, Rolling the ‘DICE’: an optimal transition path for controlling greenhouse gases, Resour. Energy Econ., 15, 27, 10.1016/0928-7655(93)90017-O OECD, 1996 Okun, 1962, Potential GNP, its measurement and significance Orlove, 2005, Human adaptation to climate change: a review of three historical cases and some general perspectives, Environ. Sci. Pol., 8, 589, 10.1016/j.envsci.2005.06.009 Pielke, 2001, Influence of the spatial distribution of vegetation and soils on the prediction of cumulus convective rainfall, Rev. Geophys., 39, 151, 10.1029/1999RG000072 Pinilla, 2008, Rural depopulation and the migration turnaround in Mediterranean Western Europe, Journal of Rural and Community Development, 3, 1 Pittman, 2011, Vulnerability to climate change in rural Saskatchewan: case study of the Rural Municipality of Rudy No. 284, J. Rural. Stud., 27, 83, 10.1016/j.jrurstud.2010.07.004 Poudyal, 2008, The role of natural resource amenities in attracting retirees: implications for economic growth policy, Ecol. Econ., 68, 240, 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.02.022 Prachowny, 1993, Okun’s law: theoretical foundations and revised estimates, Rev. Econ. Stat., 75, 331, 10.2307/2109440 Prieto-Lara, 2010, Updating rurality index for small areas in Spain, Soc. Indic. Res., 95, 267, 10.1007/s11205-009-9459-0 Prior, 2010, More than health: the added value of health services in remote Scotland and Australia, Health & Place, 16, 1136, 10.1016/j.healthplace.2010.07.005 Puliafito, 2008, Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: an application to CO2 global emissions, Ecol. Econ., 65, 602, 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2007.08.010 Rahmandad, 2008, Heterogeneity and network structure in the dynamics of diffusion: comparing agent-based and differential equation models, Manag. Sci., 54, 998, 10.1287/mnsc.1070.0787 Refsgaard, 2010, Modelling policies for multifunctional agriculture and rural development – a Norwegian case study, Env. Pol. Gov., 20, 239, 10.1002/eet.549 Rosa, 2012, Human drivers of national greenhouse-gas emissions, Nat. Clim. Chang., 2, 581, 10.1038/nclimate1506 Royston, 1999, Using system dynamics to help develop and implement policies and programmes in health care in England, Syst. Dyn. Rev., 15, 293, 10.1002/(SICI)1099-1727(199923)15:3<293::AID-SDR169>3.0.CO;2-1 Ruth, 2011, Sustainable prosperity and societal transitions: long-term modeling for anticipatory management, Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, 1, 160, 10.1016/j.eist.2011.03.004 Rye, 2011, Youth migration, rurality and class a Bourdieusian approach, European Urban and Regional Studies, 18, 170, 10.1177/0969776410390747 Sackmann, 2001, Age and labour-market chances in international comparison, Eur. Sociol. Rev., 17, 373, 10.1093/esr/17.4.373 Sánchez-Zamora, 2014, Rural areas face the economic crisis: analyzing the determinants of successful territorial dynamics, J. Rural. Stud., 35, 11, 10.1016/j.jrurstud.2014.03.007 Schelling, 1971, Dynamic models of segregation, J. Math. Sociol., 1, 143, 10.1080/0022250X.1971.9989794 Schellnhuber, 1999, ‘Earth system’ analysis and the second Copernican revolution, Nature, 402, C19, 10.1038/35011515 Schimel, 2015, Analysis, Integration and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES): advancing the post-disciplinary understanding of coupled human–environment dynamics in the Anthropocene, Anthropocene, 12, 99, 10.1016/j.ancene.2016.02.001 Schouten, 2012, A resilience-based policy evaluation framework: application to European rural development policies, Ecological Economics, Special Section: “Planetary Boundaries” and Global Environmental Governance, 81, 165, 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.07.004 Schwanitz, 2013, Evaluating integrated assessment models of global climate change, Environ. Model. Softw., 50, 120, 10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.09.005 Seo, 2008, An analysis of crop choice: adapting to climate change in South American farms, Ecol. Econ., 67, 109, 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2007.12.007 Shucksmith, 2016 Siebert, 1997, Labour market rigidities: at the root of unemployment in Europe, J. Econ. Perspect., 37, 10.1257/jep.11.3.37 Silveira, 2006, Agent-based model to rural-urban migration analysis, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 364, 445, 10.1016/j.physa.2005.08.055 Smailes, 2002, Rural population density: its impact on social and demographic aspects of rural communities, J. Rural. Stud., 18, 385, 10.1016/S0743-0167(02)00033-5 Smith, 2007, The changing faces of rural populations: ‘“(re) Fixing” the gaze’ or ‘eyes wide shut’?, J. Rural. Stud., 23, 275, 10.1016/j.jrurstud.2007.03.001 Stephen, 1996, Rural transport problems and non-car populations in the USA: a UK perspective, J. Transp. Geogr., 4, 93, 10.1016/0966-6923(96)00002-6 Sterman, 2001, System dynamics modeling: tools for learning in a complex world, Calif. Manag. Rev., 43, 8, 10.2307/41166098 Stockdale, 2006, Migration: pre-requisite for rural economic regeneration?, J. Rural. Stud., 22, 354, 10.1016/j.jrurstud.2005.11.001 Stockdale, 2006, The role of a “retirement transition” in the repopulation of rural areas, Popul. Space Place, 12, 1, 10.1002/psp.380 Stockdale, 2011, A review of demographic ageing in the UK: opportunities for rural research, Popul. Space Place, 17, 204, 10.1002/psp.591 Stockdale, 2013, Pre-retirement age migration to remote rural areas, J. Rural. Stud., 32, 80, 10.1016/j.jrurstud.2013.04.009 Strasser, 2003, Rural health around the world: challenges and solutions, Fam. Pract., 20, 457, 10.1093/fampra/cmg422 Sudhir, 1997, Planning for sustainable solid waste management in urban India, Syst. Dyn. Rev., 13, 223, 10.1002/(SICI)1099-1727(199723)13:3<223::AID-SDR127>3.0.CO;2-Q Tapiador, 2008 Thompson, 2008, Using system dynamics to develop policies that matter: global management of poliomyelitis and beyond, Syst. Dyn. Rev., 24, 433, 10.1002/sdr.419 Van den Bergh, 2004, Optimal climate policy is a utopia: from quantitative to qualitative cost-benefit analysis, Ecol. Econ., 48, 385, 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2003.10.011 Van der Ploeg, 2000, Rural development: from practices and policies towards theory, Sociol. Rural., 40, 391, 10.1111/1467-9523.00156 Voldoire, 2007, Climate simulation of the twenty-first century with interactive land-use changes, Clim. Dyn., 29, 177, 10.1007/s00382-007-0228-y Walther, 2010, Impact assessment in the automotive industry: mandatory market introduction of alternative powertrain technologies, Syst. Dyn. Rev., 26, 239, 10.1002/sdr.453 Wang, 1985, A disaggregate population model of China, SIMULATION, 45, 7, 10.1177/003754978504500104 Wei, 2012, System dynamics simulation model for assessing socio-economic impacts of different levels of environmental flow allocation in the Weihe River Basin, China, Eur. J. Oper. Res., 221, 248, 10.1016/j.ejor.2012.03.014 Weyant, 2009, A perspective on integrated assessment, Clim. Chang., 95, 317, 10.1007/s10584-009-9612-4 Whelpton, 1936, An empirical method of calculating future population, Journal of American Statistical Association, 31, 457, 10.1080/01621459.1936.10503346 Wiggins, 2001, How special are rural areas? The economic implications of location for rural development, Development Policy Review, 19, 427, 10.1111/1467-7679.00142 Windley, 1988, Rural small towns: an environmental context for aging, J. Rural. Stud., 4, 151, 10.1016/0743-0167(88)90033-2 Wolbers, 2000, The effects of level of education on mobility between employment and unemployment in the Netherlands, Eur. Sociol. Rev., 16, 185, 10.1093/esr/16.2.185 Yearley, 2009, Sociology and climate change after Kyoto what roles for social science in understanding climate change?, Curr. Sociol., 57, 389, 10.1177/0011392108101589 York, 2003, STIRPAT, IPAT and ImPACT: analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts, Ecol. Econ., 46, 351, 10.1016/S0921-8009(03)00188-5 Zagata, 2015, Deconstructing the ‘young farmer problem in Europe’: towards a research agenda, J. Rural. Stud., 38, 39, 10.1016/j.jrurstud.2015.01.003 Zahran, 2007, Ecological development and global climate change: a cross-national study of Kyoto Protocol ratification, Soc. Nat. Resour., 20, 37, 10.1080/08941920600981355 Zhang, 2011, Evaluating government’s policies on promoting smart metering diffusion in retail electricity markets via agent-based simulation, J. Prod. Innov. Manag., 28, 169, 10.1111/j.1540-5885.2011.00790.x