Quantitative risk analysis of offshore drilling operations: A Bayesian approach
Tóm tắt
Từ khóa
Tài liệu tham khảo
Ale, 2006, Towards a causal model for air transport safety – an ongoing research project, Safety Science, 44, 657, 10.1016/j.ssci.2006.02.002
Ale, 2009, Further development of a causal model for air transport safety (CATS): building the mathematical heart, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 94, 1433, 10.1016/j.ress.2009.02.024
Ale, B.J.M., Hanea, D., Van Gulijk, C., Lin, P.H., Sillem, S., Hudson, P., 2011. Towards an integrated risk model for hydrocarbon industry operation. Advances in safety, reliability and risk management. In: Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2011, pp. 1636–1643.
Andersen, 1998, Stochastic modeling for the analysis of blowout risk in exploration drilling, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 61, 53, 10.1016/S0951-8320(97)00067-7
Arild, O., Fjelde, K.K., Merlo. A., Daireaux. B., Loberg. T., 2008. BlowFlow – a new tool within blowout risk management. In: SPE 114568, IADC/SPE Asia Pacific Drilling Technology Conference and Exhibition, Jakarta, Indonesia, August 25–27.
Arild, O., Ford, E.P., Loberg, T., Baringbing, J.W.T., 2009. KickRisk – a well specific approach to the quantification of well control risks. In: SPE 124024, 2009 SPE Asia Pasific Oil and Gas Conference and Exhibition, Jakarta, Indonesia, August 4–6.
Bercha, F.G., 1978. Probabilities of Blowout in Canadian Arctic Waters. Canadian Environmental Impact Control Directorate, Report No: EPS 3-EC-78-12.
Bercha, F.G., 2010. Arctic and Northern offshore oil spill probabilities. In: The 10th International Conference and Exhibition on Performance of Ships and Structures in Ice (ICETECH 2010), Anchorage, Alaska, USA, September 20–23.
Bercha, F.G., Prentki, R., Smith, C., Cervosek, M., 2008. Prediction of oil spill occurrence probabilities in the Alaskan Beaufort and Chukchi Seas OCS. In: The 8th International Conference and Exhibition on Performance of Ships and Structures in Ice (ICETECH 2008), Banff, Alberta, Canada, July 20–23.
Bobbio, 2001, Improving the analysis of dependable systems by mapping fault trees into Bayesian networks, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 71, 249, 10.1016/S0951-8320(00)00077-6
Boudali, 2005, A discrete-time Bayesian network reliability modeling and analysis framework, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 87, 337, 10.1016/j.ress.2004.06.004
BP, 2010. Deepwater Horizon Accident Investigation Report.
Delvosalle, 2005, Identification of reference accident scenarios in SEVESO establishments, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 90, 238, 10.1016/j.ress.2004.11.003
Delvosalle, 2006, ARAMIS project: a comprehensive methodology for the identification of reference scenarios in process industries, Journal of Hazardous Materials, 130, 200, 10.1016/j.jhazmat.2005.07.005
Dervo, H.J., Blom-Jensen, B., 2004. Comparison of quantitative blowout risk assessment approaches. In: SPE 86706, The Seventh SPE International Conference on Health, Safety, and Environment in Oil and Gas Exploration and Production, Calgary, Canada March 29–31.
Dianous, 2006, ARAMIS project: a more explicit demonstration of risk control through the use of bow-tie diagrams and the evaluation of safety barrier performance, Journal of Hazardous Materials, 130, 220, 10.1016/j.jhazmat.2005.07.010
ERCB (Energy Resources Conservation Board, Alberta, Canada). <http://www.ercb.ca> (20.04.12).
Holand, 1997
HUGIN Expert Software Version 7.4, 2010. <http://www.hugin.com>.
Jensen, 2007
Khakzad, 2011, Safety analysis in process facilities: comparison of fault tree and Bayesian network approaches, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 96, 925, 10.1016/j.ress.2011.03.012
Khakzad, 2013, Dynamic safety analysis of process systems by mapping bow-tie into Bayesian network, Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 91, 46, 10.1016/j.psep.2012.01.005
Khakzad, 2013, Dynamic risk analysis using bow-tie approach, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 104, 36, 10.1016/j.ress.2012.04.003
Khakzad, 2013, Risk-based design of process systems using discrete-time Bayesian networks, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 109, 5, 10.1016/j.ress.2012.07.009
Kjaerullf, 2008
Nguyen, 1996
Nilsen, T., Sandoy, M., Rommetveit, R., 2001. Guarneri. Risk-based well control planning: the integration of random and known quantities in a computerized risk management tool. In: SPE 68447, SPE/ICoTA Coiled Tubing Roundtable, Houston, USA, March 7–8.
OREDA (Offshore Reliability Data Handbook), 2002. SINTEF Industrial Management. Det Norske Veritas.
SINTEF Offshore Blowout Database, 1995. Users’ Manual, Trondheim, Norway.
Skogdalen, 2011, Developing safety indicators for preventing offshore oil and gas deepwater drilling blowouts, Safety Science, 49, 1187, 10.1016/j.ssci.2011.03.012
Spiegelhalter, 1990, Sequential updating of conditional probabilities on directed graphical structures, Networks, 20, 579, 10.1002/net.3230200507
Torres-Toledano, 1998, Bayesian networks for reliability analysis of complex systems, Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 1484, 195, 10.1007/3-540-49795-1_17
WOAD (World Offshore Accident Databank), 1994. Statistical Report, DNV Technica, Norway.