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Dự đoán thay đổi trong khí hậu vật lý của vùng Vịnh và vùng Caribe
Tóm tắt
Khi khí hậu toàn cầu ấm lên do sự gia tăng của khí nhà kính, khí hậu khu vực của Vịnh Mexico và vùng Caribe cũng sẽ thay đổi. Nghiên cứu này trình bày các ước lượng mới nhất về những thay đổi dự kiến trong nhiệt độ, lượng mưa, hoạt động bão nhiệt đới và mực nước biển. Những thay đổi về nhiệt độ và lượng mưa được rút ra từ các mô phỏng mô hình khí hậu được sản xuất cho Báo cáo Đánh giá lần thứ tư của Ủy ban Liên chính phủ về Biến đổi Khí hậu (IPCC AR4), bằng cách so sánh các dự đoán cho giữa thế kỷ và cuối thế kỷ 21 với cuối thế kỷ 20 và giả định một kịch bản "trung bình" cho sự phát thải khí nhà kính trong tương lai. Các mô phỏng khu vực từ Chương trình Biến đổi Khí hậu Khu vực Bắc Mỹ (NARCCAP) được sử dụng để xác minh các dự đoán lượng mưa của IPCC AR4 trên phần lãnh thổ của Mỹ trong khu vực nghiên cứu. Những thay đổi trong các cơn bão nhiệt đới và mực nước biển có độ không chắc chắn cao hơn, và sự hiểu biết của chúng ta về các biến số này đã thay đổi nhiều hơn kể từ IPCC AR4 so với trường hợp của nhiệt độ và lượng mưa. Đối với những đại lượng này, tình trạng hiện tại của hiểu biết được mô tả dựa trên các tài liệu được đánh giá đồng nghiệp gần đây.
Từ khóa
#khí hậu #biến đổi khí hậu #mô hình khí hậu #dự đoán khí hậu #nhiệt độ #lượng mưa #bão nhiệt đới #mực nước biểnTài liệu tham khảo
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