Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Over the United States, Central America, and the Caribbean in CMIP6 GCMs

Springer Science and Business Media LLC - Tập 5 Số 1 - Trang 1-24 - 2021
Mansour Almazroui1, M. Nazrul Islam1, Fahad Saeed1, Sajjad Saeed1, Muhammad Ismail1, Muhammad Azhar Ehsan1, Ismaïla Diallo2, Enda O’Brien1, Moetasim Ashfaq3, Daniel Martínez-Castro4, Tereza Cavazos5, Ruth Cerezo‐Mota6, Michael K. Tippett7, William J. Gutowski8, Eric J. Alfaro9, Hugo G. Hidalgo10, Alejandro Vichot‐Llano4, Jayaka Campbell11, Shahzad Kamil12, Irfan Ur Rashid12, Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla13, Tannecia S. Stephenson11, Michael A. Taylor11, Mathew Barlow14
1Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research/Department of Meteorology, King Abdulaziz University, PO Box 80208, Jeddah, 21589, Saudi Arabia
2Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, 90034, USA
3Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA
4Center for Atmospheric Physics, Institute of Meteorology, Havana, Cuba
5Departamento de Oceanografia Fisica, CICESE, Ensenada, Baja California, México
6Laboratorio de Ingeniería y Procesos Costeros, Instituto de Ingeniería, Nacional Autónoma de México, Sisal, Yucatán, 97356, México
7Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics Columbia University New York USA
8Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa 50011, USA
9Center for Geophysical Research, School of Physics and Center for Research in Marine Sciences and Limnology, University of Costa Rica, San Jose, 11501, Costa Rica
10Center for Geophysical Research and School of Physics, University of Costa Rica, San Jose, 11501, Costa Rica
11Department of Physics, University of the West Indies, Mona Campus, Jamaica
12Climate Change Impact and Integration Cell (CIIC), Pakistan Meteorological Department, Islamabad, Pakistan
13African Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Kigali, Rwanda
14Department of Environmental, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Massachusetts Lowell, Lowell, USA

Tóm tắt

AbstractThe Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset is used to examine projected changes in temperature and precipitation over the United States (U.S.), Central America and the Caribbean. The changes are computed using an ensemble of 31 models for three future time slices (2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2080–2099) relative to the reference period (1995–2014) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs; SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The CMIP6 ensemble reproduces the observed annual cycle and distribution of mean annual temperature and precipitation with biases between − 0.93 and 1.27 °C and − 37.90 to 58.45%, respectively, for most of the region. However, modeled precipitation is too large over the western and Midwestern U.S. during winter and spring and over the North American monsoon region in summer, while too small over southern Central America. Temperature is projected to increase over the entire domain under all three SSPs, by as much as 6 °C under SSP5-8.5, and with more pronounced increases in the northern latitudes over the regions that receive snow in the present climate. Annual precipitation projections for the end of the twenty-first century have more uncertainty, as expected, and exhibit a meridional dipole-like pattern, with precipitation increasing by 10–30% over much of the U.S. and decreasing by 10–40% over Central America and the Caribbean, especially over the monsoon region. Seasonally, precipitation over the eastern and central subregions is projected to increase during winter and spring and decrease during summer and autumn. Over the monsoon region and Central America, precipitation is projected to decrease in all seasons except autumn. The analysis was repeated on a subset of 9 models with the best performance in the reference period; however, no significant difference was found, suggesting that model bias is not strongly influencing the projections.

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