Đánh giá nguy cơ địa chấn xác suất cho miền Đông Nam nước Pháp

Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering - Tập 16 - Trang 2477-2511 - 2017
Christophe Martin1, Gabriele Ameri1, David Baumont1, David Carbon1, Gloria Senfaute2, Jean-Michel Thiry3,4, Ezio Faccioli5, Jean Savy6
1Geoter SAS - Fugro, Auriol, France
2EDF-CEIDRE-TEGG, Aix-en-Provance, France
3AREVA, Lyon, France
4Apave Sudeurope SAS, Paris, France
5Studio Geotecnico Italiano, Milan, Italy
6Savy Risk Consulting, Oakland, USA

Tóm tắt

Việc đánh giá chính xác và điều trị hợp lý các yếu tố không chắc chắn là điều rất quan trọng trong đánh giá nguy cơ địa chấn xác suất hiện đại (PSHA). Một trong những mục tiêu của dự án SIGMA là thiết lập một khung công tác nhằm cải thiện kiến thức và dữ liệu về hai khu vực mục tiêu có hoạt động địa chấn từ thấp đến vừa phải. Trong bài báo này, chúng tôi trình bày PSHA cuối cùng được thực hiện trong khuôn khổ dự án SIGMA cho miền Đông Nam nước Pháp. Một danh mục động đất mới cho Pháp, bao gồm cả các giai đoạn công cụ và lịch sử, đã được sử dụng để tính toán các phân bố tần suất-cường độ. Mô hình nguy cơ bao gồm các nguồn khu vực, độ rung địa chấn đã được làm mịn và một mô hình đứt gãy 3D. Một tập hợp các phương trình dự đoán chuyển động mặt đất (GMPEs) mới được phát triển từ dữ liệu toàn cầu và khu vực, đã được đánh giá là thể hiện đúng các đặc điểm chuyển động mặt đất trong khu vực, đã được sử dụng để tính toán nguy cơ. Các phân bố cường độ-tần suất, cường độ tối đa, tốc độ trượt đứt gãy và kiểu đứt gãy được coi là nguồn bổ sung của những không chắc chắn tri thức. Kết quả nguy cơ cho điều kiện đá điển hình (Vs30 = 800 m/s) được hiển thị cho 20 địa điểm dưới dạng phổ nguy cơ đồng nhất tại hai chu kỳ hoàn trả (475 năm và 10.000 năm). Các đóng góp của những không chắc chắn tri thức trong việc đặc trưng chuyển động mặt đất và trong việc đặc trưng nguồn địa chấn đối với tổng không chắc chắn nguy cơ được phân tích. Cuối cùng, chúng tôi so sánh các kết quả với các mô hình hiện có được phát triển ở quy mô quốc gia trong khuôn khổ thế hệ đầu tiên của các mô hình hỗ trợ thực thi Eurocode 8 (MEDD 2002 và AFPS06) và ở quy mô châu Âu (trong dự án SHARE), làm nổi bật những khác biệt đáng kể tại các chu kỳ hoàn trả ngắn.

Từ khóa

#đánh giá nguy cơ địa chấn #nhật ký động đất #mô hình nguy cơ #không chắc chắn tri thức #chuyển động mặt đất #địa chấn học

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