Probabilistic analysis of land subsidence due to pumping by Biot poroelasticity and random field theory

Journal of Engineering and Applied Science - 2022
Sirui Deng1, Haoqing Yang2, Xiaoying Chen3, Xin Wei1
1School of Naval Architecture, Ocean & Civil Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 800 Dongchuan Road, Shanghai, 200240, China
2School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore 639798, Singapore
3School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Nanjing University, 163 Xianlin Road, Nanjing 210023, China

Tóm tắt

AbstractLand subsidence is a global problem in urban areas. The main cause of land subsidence is the pumping of subsurface water. It is of great significance to study the subsurface settlement and water flow of the lands due to pumping. In this study, the probabilistic analysis of land subsidence due to pumping is performed by Biot’s poroelasticity and random field theory based on a case study. The results show that the change of deformation of the aquifer is far less significant than the hydraulic head over the years. When considering the spatial variability of soil strength, the land subsidence suffers from great uncertainty when the correlation length is large. Nevertheless, the spatial variability of soil strength on the uncertainty of hydraulic head can be ignored. When considering the spatial variability of soil hydraulic conductivity, the uncertainty of the hydraulic head is mainly located near the bedrock and increases markedly along with the rise of the correlation length. Time is another important factor to increase the uncertainty of the hydraulic head. However, its contribution to the uncertainty of displacement is insignificant.

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