Các rủi ro về phát thải do giao thông và sức khỏe tại Adelaide, Nam Úc

Asif Iqbal1, M.F. Rahman2
1UniSA-STEM, University of South Australia, Adelaide, Australia
2UniSA STEM, University of South Australia, Adelaide, Australia

Tóm tắt

Tóm tắtNghiên cứu nhằm đánh giá các rủi ro liên quan đến phát thải do giao thông (các chất ô nhiễm tiêu chí chính) tại Adelaide, Nam Úc. Một chiến lược mô hình phát thải ngẫu nhiên đã được triển khai để thực hiện đánh giá rủi ro xác suất đối với hệ thống giao thông cho các kịch bản hiện tại và tương lai, thông qua việc phân tích dữ liệu hệ thống giao thông theo từng đoạn đường. Kết quả mô phỏng cho thấy rằng rủi ro do NOx và PM2.5 là đáng kể tại khoảng 35% diện tích thành phố, đặc biệt là dọc theo các tuyến đường có mật độ phương tiện nặng và lưu lượng giao thông cao. Rủi ro sẽ tăng đáng kể trong 10 năm tới nếu thực tiễn hiện tại được duy trì, cho thấy xác suất cao (hơn 60%) của việc phát thải vượt quá 150% tiêu chuẩn chất lượng không khí. Nghiên cứu cho rằng cần có kế hoạch hợp lý để ứng phó với các nhu cầu phát triển nhằm đảm bảo sự bền vững cho hệ thống trong tương lai.

Từ khóa


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